For good measure, here are the 22/23 South American estimates, unchanged from last month. Would be very early to make any changes here unless there were compelling reasons to shift planted area assumptions.
"The U.S. Department of Agriculture increased its outlook for world corn inventories as more corn remains unshipped in Russia and Ukraine.
In its monthly world supply and demand report, the USDA said that world corn stocks are expected at 310.45 million
metric tons for the 2022/23 marketing year--an unusual 5.3-million-ton increase to the projection. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal before the report's release had expected inventories to total 305 million tons.
Additionally, the USDA raised its outlook for Ukrainian corn production, "reflecting higher area based on data
reported by the government."
Unless the Ukraine war stops in the near future and port damage gets repaired quickly, I can not believe Ukraine will export the USDA assumptions
It seems as if russia is on a mission to destroy as much Ukraine grain stocks as possible. Even to the point of not enough for Ukraine domestic needs let alone shipping much for export, as russia seems to be on a mission to destroy the entire country
I have not sold any new crop corn and will not do so until next winter and we see what the world S & D looks like
SA can not step in and replace Uk
NA is one of the few places to acquire extra grain stocks
Russia seems determined to prevent Ukraine grain stocks reaching world markets except what they steal
Russia has destroyed port facilities, stored ware house grain and stole or destroyed grain harvesters
and some thing new is happening
Russia is setting fire to grain in the field
Can't do a link but saw a video of wheat field on fire last week
Also Brazil is worried about diesel fuel to harvest and plant crops
Will all crops counted in world supply make it's way to the end user