Crop conditions 6-13-22
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Started by metmike - June 13, 2022, 4:03 p.m.

1st bean rating pretty good.

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog2522.txt


This is what was expected.

I'll have more graphs TOMORROW because my usual, awesome source is out of her office today.


Looks like beans were exactly in line, corn was just -1% off but Spring wheat was -9% vs expectations, so look for the MWE to open higher!

The weather is still bullish too.

@kannbwx

Analysts see the first condition score of the season for U.S. #soybeans at 70% good-to-excellent and #corn unch from 73% last week. Five-year avg initial soy rating is 66% (low of 54% in 2019), 5yr avg initial skipping 2019 is 70%. Initial soy score in 2021 was 67% g/e.

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By metmike - June 13, 2022, 4:33 p.m.
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@kannbwx

70% of U.S. #soybeans were in good or excellent condition as of Sunday in USDA's first ratings of the season. The score was 62% in the same week a year ago, but the crop was more advanced. #Corn down 1pt from last week to 72% good/exc. Spring #wheat 54% good/exc on 72% emerged.

#Soybeans were 75% planted in North Dakota as of Sunday, up from 41% a week earlier, and emergence is 24% (70% is avg). On that 24%, soy health in ND was shown at 58% good/exc. Final soy planting date in ND was June 10.

By metmike - June 15, 2022, 1:45 a.m.
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@kannbwx

By June 12, North Dakota had planted 75% of its #soybeans, record slow but close to the 2011 & 2013 paces. If 2022 acreage patterns are similar to those years, ND soy acres may fall 5-8% (350k-560k acres) from March intentions of 7M acres.

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By metmike - June 15, 2022, 1:47 a.m.
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@kannbwx

U.S. spring#wheat planting was nearly the slowest on record this year, but conditions start when enough of the crop has emerged. 72% had emerged by Sunday, which is the long-term average emergence coinciding with the first conditions. So nothing unusual there

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@kannbwx

2002, 2017 & 2021 were all drought years, and 2022 so far has taken a different course. 2008 and 2004 didn't start off great but the condition scores improved in the following weeks. 2008 yield was meh but 2004 excellent. Could see an improvement soon from 54% w/ good weather.

By metmike - June 15, 2022, 1:49 a.m.
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@kannbwx

USDA pegs U.S. spring #wheat at 54% good or excellent, well below the long-term mean of 70% for the first conditions of the season. Strong yields are unlikely to result when wheat gets this rough a start, but OK yields are possible, esp. if drought is avoided.

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By metmike - June 15, 2022, 1:50 a.m.
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@kannbwx

This is Monday afternoon's U.S. #corn conditions by state compared with last week. National dropped just 1 pt to 72% good/excellent. Notable decline in Nebraska. FYI North Dakota is only 50% emerged, so the entire crop is not yet represented here.

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By metmike - June 17, 2022, 11:42 p.m.
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@kannbwx

Here's what we're looking for: #corn pollination. Hot and dry weather during that period can interfere with pollination and reduce yield potential. Planting date/follow up weather determines when silking occurs, but the middle weeks of July are a good bet for much of the crop.

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