KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, June 16, 2022
8:30 AM ET. June Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (expected 4.8; previous 2.6)
Prices Paid (previous 78.9)
Employment (previous 25.5)
New Orders (previous 22.1)
Prices Received (previous 51.7)
Delivery Times (previous 17.5)
Inventories (previous 3.2)
Shipments (previous 35.3)
8:30 AM ET. May New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits
Total Starts (expected (expected 1.68M; previous 1.724M)
Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -2.6%; previous -0.2%)
Building Permits (expected 1.78M; previous 1.819M)
Building Permits, M/M% (expected -2.1%; previous -3.2%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 220K; previous 229K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +27K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1306000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +0K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 354K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 1025.2K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 712.9K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 1999B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +97B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, June 17, 2022
9:15 AM ET. May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +1.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 79.2%; previous 79.0%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.8)
10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 119.2)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. May State Employment and Unemployment
Monday, June 20, 2022
N/A U.S.: Juneteenth observed. Financial markets closed
Tuesday, June 21, 2022
8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.47)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.48)
10:00 AM ET. May Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.61M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -2.4%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.2)
Median Price (USD) (previous 391200)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +14.8%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight as it erased all of Wednesday's gains.The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, the November-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 10,942.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,160.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,160.52. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,832.25. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 11,236.00. Second support is the November-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 10,942.25.
The September S&P 500 was sharply lower overnight and posted a new low for the year as it renewed the decline off January's high.Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline the February-2021 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3656.50 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's gap crossing at 3896.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3987.55. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4134.27. First support is the overnight low crossing at 3695.00. Second support is the February-2021 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3656.50.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range while remaining poised to extend the decline off May's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 135-01. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-16. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 131-03. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range while remaining poised to extend the decline off May's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the June-2009 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 112.255 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.198 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.233. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118-048. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.075. Second support is the June-2009 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 112.255.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:July crude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the rally off the April 25th low, monthly resistance crossing at $130.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $123.68. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $130.50. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $115.84. Second support is June's low crossing at $111.20.
July heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1053 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $4.6070. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $4.7817. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1057. Second support is is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7745.
July unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6112 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.1050 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is June's highcrossing at $4.3260. Second resistance is unknown.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6112. Second support is the May 19th low crossing at $3.4236.
July Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidated some of Tuesday's huge decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends Tuesday's decline, May's low crossing at 6.521 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.536 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.536. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 9.664. First support is May's low crossing at 6.521. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.980.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.345 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $105.565. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $103.602. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.345.
The September Euro was lower overnight and remains poised to extend the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, May's low crossing at $1.04255 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07205 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.06294. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.07204. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1.04280. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.04255.
The September British Pound was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2453 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.2342. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2453. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1952. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1914.
The September Swiss Franc was sharply higher overnight as it rebounds off Wednesday's low that fell just short of testing May's low crossing at 1.00170. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04032 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 1.00170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03494. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04032. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.00235. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.00170.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at $76.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.47 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.47. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $79.84. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at $76.89. Second support is May's low crossing at $76.46.
The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076949 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.075339. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076949. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 0.074210. Second support is the 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.074150.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at $1792.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1848.50 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average $1848.50. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1882.80. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $1806.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $1792.00.
July silver was slightly lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.811 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If July renews this month's decline, May's low crossing at $20.420 is the next downside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at $22.565. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.806. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $20.845. Second support is May's low crossing at $20.420.
July copper was sharply lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at 4.0370 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4009 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3150. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4009. First support is the overnight low crossing at 4.0870. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.0370.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
July corn was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $7.82 3/4 would open the door for a possible test of the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4. Closes below the June 8th low crossing at $7.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $7.82 3/4. Second resistance is the May 16th high crossing at $8.10 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $7.20 1/2. Second support is the 25% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.12 1/2.
July wheat was lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.04 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $10.10 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.04 1/2. Second resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $11.70 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.10 1/4. Second support is March's low crossing at $9.67 1/4.
July Kansas City wheat was lower overnight while extending this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4 the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.83 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $12.51. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $13.52. First support is June's low crossing at $11.12 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.65.
July Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below June's low crossing at $11.90 would renew the decline off May's high while opening the door for a possible test of the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $11.40 1/2. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.43 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $13.20 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. First support is June's low crossing at $11.90. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $11.40 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans were steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that the market is vulnerable to a downside correction near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.77 1/4 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $17.17 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. Closes above June's high crossing at $17.84 would open the door for a test of the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First resistance is June's high crossing at $17.84. Second resistance is the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.77 1/4. Second support is May's low crossing at $15.78.
July soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the June 7th low crossing at $404.00 or above the May 31st high crossing at $436.50 are needed to mark a breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $428.70. Second resistance is the May 31st high crossing at $436.50. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June 7th low crossing at $404.00. Second support is May's low crossing at $395.00.
July soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the May-June trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below June's low crossing at 76.61 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 73.75. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.37 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes above the May 16th high crossing at 84.64 would mark an upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range and would open the door for a possible test of April's high crossing at 87.65. First resistance is the May 16th high crossing at 84.64. Second resistance is April's high crossing at 87.65. First support is June's low crossing at 76.61. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-April rally crossing at 73.75.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed up $1.48 at $108.10.
July hogs closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.77 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, the May 13th gap crossing at $101.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.77. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $114.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at $103.53. Second support is the May 16th gap crossing at $101.30.
August cattle closed up $2.73 at $136.80
August cattle gapped up and closed higher on Wednesday filling Monday's gap crossing at $136.03. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August renews the decline off May's low, the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27 is the next upside gap. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $132.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Second resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $133.62. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.97.
August Feeder cattle closed up $2.30 at $173.60.
August Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.91 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $169.91. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If July extends the decline off June's high, the May 24th low crossing at 21.10 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 23.57 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $23.15. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 24.20. First support is the May 24th low crossing at 21.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 20.23.
July cocoa close slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the November-2020 low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
July sugar closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 18.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 19.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cotton closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 141.65 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 130.25 is the next downside target. If July renews this month's rally, the May 17th high crossing at 151.95 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!