KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, June 17, 2022
9:15 AM ET. May Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +1.1%)
Capacity Utilization % (expected 79.2%; previous 79.0%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.8)
10:00 AM ET. May Leading Indicators
Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -0.3%)
Leading Index (previous 119.2)
Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
10:00 AM ET. May State Employment and Unemployment
Monday, June 20, 2022
N/A U.S.: Juneteenth observed. Financial markets closed
Tuesday, June 21, 2022
8:30 AM ET. May CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index
NAI (previous 0.47)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.48)
10:00 AM ET. May Existing Home Sales
Existing Sales (previous 5.61M)
Existing Sales, M/M% (previous -2.4%)
Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 2.2)
Median Price (USD) (previous 391200)
Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +14.8%)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow plunged to a new low for the year on Thursday as investors weighed the potential economic costs of the Federal Reserve's ongoing fight with inflation. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this year's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 27,601.58 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 32,019.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 31,387.84. Second resistance is last-Friday's gap crossing at 32,267.78. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 29,814.73. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 27,601.58.
The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it posted a new low close for the year. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 10,942.25 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average 12,150.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's gap crossing at 11,849.25. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,828.06. First support is today's low crossing at 11,092.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 10,942.25.
The September S&P 500 closed sharply lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off May's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 4202.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's gap crossing at 3896.50. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4240.29. First support is today's low crossing at 3651.50. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed up 1-30. at 134-11.
September T-bonds closed higher on Thursday as it extended this week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 135-06. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 137-19. First support is today's low crossing at 131-01. Second support is the December-2013 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 127-23.
September T-notes closed up 1020 pts. at 116.070.
September T-notes closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended this week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 111.233 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.204 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116.268. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.204. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 114.075. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 111.233.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
July crude oil closed higher on Thursday ending a two-day correction off Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $116.3 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If July renews the rally off the April 25th low, monthly resistance crossing at $130.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $123.68. Second resistance crossing at monthly resistance crossing at $130.50.First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.95. Second support is May's low crossing at $96.93.
July heating oil closed higher on Thursday as it extended this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.6709 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1114 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $4.6070. Second resistance is the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $4.6709. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.1114. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7770.
July unleaded gas closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Despite today's rally, July remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.9745 confirms that a short-term top has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6132 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.1145 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $4.1145. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.3260. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.6132. Second support is the May 19th low crossing at $3.4236.
July Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high but remains below broken support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.878 confirming that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, May's low crossing at 6.521 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 9.149 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.525. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 9.664. First support is May's low crossing at 6.521. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.980 is the next downside target.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed sharply lower on Thursday as it consolidates some of the rally off May's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.32 would open the door for a larger-degree decline. If September resumes the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $105.57. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.38. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $102.32.
The September Euro closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above May's high crossing at $1.08530 confirms that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If September resumes the decline, May's low crossing at $1.04255 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $1.08530. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $1.10200. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1.04280. Second support is May's low crossing at $1.04255.
The September British Pound closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2468 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the aforementioned decline, the March-2020 low crossing at 1.1575 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2468. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2468. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1952. Second support is the March-2020 low crossing at 1.2484.
The September Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Thursday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04069 signaling that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends today's rally, May's high crossing at 1.05470 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.02588 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.04570. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 1.05470. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 1.00235. Second support is May's low crossing at 1.00170.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 76.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 78.48. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.84. First support is the 87% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 76.89. Second support is May's low crossing at 76.46.
The September Japanese Yen closed higher on Thursday to consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076981 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076981. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.077949. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.074210. Second support is the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
August gold closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1883.40 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If August renews this week's decline, May's low crossing at $1792.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1883.40. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-May decline crossing at $1905.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $1806.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $1792.00.
July silver closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the rally off May's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.817 is the next upside target. If July resumes this month's decline, May's low crossing at 20.420. First resistance is June's high crossing at 22.565. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.817. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 20.845. Second support is May's low crossing at 20.420.
July copper closed lower on Thursday as it extended the decline off June's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this month's decline, May's low crossing at 4.0370 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4012 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.3158. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.4012. First support is today's low crossing at 4.0410. Second support is May's low crossing at 4.0370.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July Corn closed up $0.14 1/4-cents at $7.88 1/4.
July corn closed higher on Thursday and as it above last-Thursday's high crossing at $7.82 3/4 to renew the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned rally, May's high crossing at $8.10 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.63 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is May's high crossing at $8.10 1/4. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $8.24 1/2. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $7.63 1/2. Second support is June's low crossing at $7.20 1/2.
July wheat closed up $0.28 1/4-cents at $10.78 1/4.
July wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish with today's rally signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.05 1/4 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's low, the 50% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $10.10 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance the 50-day moving average crossing at $11.05 1/4. Second resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $11.70 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $10.10 1/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $9.45 1/2.
July Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.15 1/4-cents at $11.48 1/2.
July Kansas City wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July renews the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at $10.86 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $11.93 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $12.51. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $13.79 1/4. First support is June's low crossing at $11.12 1/2. Second support is May's lowcrossing at $10.86 3/4. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the January-May rallycrossing at $10.65.
July Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.07 3/4-cents at $12.09.
July Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Thursday as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below June's low crossing at $11.90 would opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $12.43 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the May 27th high crossing at $13.20 1/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at $14.12 3/4. First support is June's low crossing at $11.90. Second support is May's low crossing at $11.54 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
July soybeans closed up $0.15 3/4 at $17.09 1/2.
July soybeans closed higher on Thursday ending a four-day decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.77 1/2 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $17.19 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is June's high crossing at $17.84. Second resistance is the all-time high crossing at $17.89. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.77 1/2. Second support is May's low crossing at $15.78 1/4.
July soybean meal closed up $12.20 at $429.70.
July soybean meal closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $429.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If July resumes the decline off March's high, May's low crossing at $395.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $436.50. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $467.80. First support is June's low crossing at $404.00. Second support is May's low crossing at $395.00.
July soybean oil closed down 133-pts. at 76.34.
July soybean oil closed lower on Thursday as it renewed the decline off April's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 73.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 80.28 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance June's high crossing at 83.44. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 84.64. First support is today's low crossing at 75.74. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 73.75.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
July hogs closed up $1.38 at $109.65.
July hogs closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.67 would confirm that a low has been posted. If July renews this month's decline, the May 13th gap crossing at $101.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.67. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $114.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at $103.53. Second support is the May 16th gap crossing at $101.30.
August cattle closed down $0.48 at $136.32
August cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends Wednesday's rally, the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $132.45 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is Monday's low crossing at $132.45. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.97.
August Feeder cattle closed down $1.98 at $171.30.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $170.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If August renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $170.16. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
July coffee closed higher on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 23.57 would temper the bearish outlook. If July renews the decline off June's high, the May 24th low crossing at 21.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $23.57. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 24.20. First support is the May 24th low crossing at 21.10. Second support is May's low crossing at 20.23.
July cocoa close unchanged on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off April's high, the November-2020 low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 24.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
July sugar closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off May's high, May's low crossing at 18.30 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 19.45 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
July cotton closed slightly higher on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 141.73 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If July renews the decline off May's high, April's low crossing at 130.25 is the next downside target. If July renews this month's rally, the May 17th high crossing at 151.95 is the next upside target.
Thanks much tallpine!
Grains finally catching on to impact of the sustained heat ridge.