Two Weeks in Review
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Started by TimNew - June 18, 2022, 7:36 a.m.

DatePriorCurrentRating
CPI_M/MMay-220.301.00D
CPI_Y/YMay-228.308.60C-
PPI_M/MMay-220.500.80C-
PPI_Y/YMay-2211.0010.80C
NFIB Small Business OptimismMay-2293.2093.10C
Retail Sales_M/MMay-220.90-0.30C-
Industrial Production_M/MMay-221.100.20C
Empire State Mfg_M/MJun-22-11.60-1.20C-
Philly Fed Mfg_M/MJun-222.60-3.30C-
Housing Market Index_M/MJun-2269.0067.00C-
Housing Starts_M/MMay-221.724M1.529MC-
Housing Permits_M/MMay-221.819M1.695MC-
Jobless Claims1_W/W6/4/2022200K229KC-
Jobless Claims2_W/W6/11/2022229K229KC
Leading Indicators_M/MMay-22-0.30-0.40C-


CPI Continues to blaze ahead with an annual rate of 8.6% and tho slightly moderating, PPI beats it at 10.8.  These are probably unsustainable rates.

Mfg Metrics continue to show contraction altho Industrial Production did continue with slight growth. Probably the closest thing to good news this week.

Housing continues to show contraction, as expected with interest rates, which in combination with other factors, is shrinking the consumer base for housing.

Leading Indicators, which is heavily influenced by Housing Starts, continues to show contraction.

Retail also showed contraction.

Small Business Optimism is steady at historically very low numbers.

We did see a gain last week of 29K, but Jobless Claims remain steady and  historically low.

Needless to say, the data looks a bit glum  Couple that with the fact the Atl Fed has lowered their Forecast for Q2:GDP to 0 and the picture darkens. The simplest definition of recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.  Based on this weeks #'s, I'll go with a generous C-.  The underlying and overall probably deserves a D+. We really need some changes.  

Slide 1 (atlantafed.org)


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By metmike - June 18, 2022, 11:34 a.m.
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Thanks much Tim!!