"The USDA projects soybean stockpiles this season at 470M bushels, a jump from December's estimate and the highest in more than a decade." I doubt it stops there. How long before we blow through 500M bushels
They have begun the process of cutting exports. I suspect we will see 50 MB a month cut going forward unless something changes in a big way. With 35 weeks remaining in the marketing year, even a sales pace matching the all-time record from this point forward, would still leave 2017/18 U.S. soybean exports 150-175 million bushels short of the USDA’s current estimate.
seemed to be some buying at any rate
Not sure why....could be the 3-day weekend cover for weather possibilities
No change in cash markets
One thing we have going for us is we are the cheapest bean in the world.
going against us is the world would rather not do business with us at this time.
Maybe. Maybe it's because we are a little too proud of our beans.
Farmers are being set up for a swift kick in the mouth if the weather doesn't turn bad in SA.
Otherwise ES for 2018/2019 are set to grow another, at a minimum, another 150-200 mb. Pile on slow sales and it starts to get even uglier.
You want to be long?
The ECWF Long range precipitation forecast for SA is showing a dry bias for the northern growing regions of Brazil, and parts of Argentina. Not a drought yet but something to watch.
A drought in the Northern regions is meaningless when they harvesting
Feb in Argentina is like Aug here? and March, April would be second crop in north?