SO...what position, C, S, and/or W will you take over the 'long July 4 weekend'?
MetMike, at least as to how I interpret his weather message, is not too enthused about a long position based on his perception of RAIN chances (Mike, correct me if I misstaten!). McFarm, what is Snodgrass latest?
Most traders have delightful/horrid July 4 "tales" about positions held over July 4!! Limit lock moves, etc.
My current perspective---friendly report tomorrow with NICE gains. Friday (maybe only into late Thursday ) will have traders winding down positions so as not to have a position over the weekend.
Oh, and those huge premiums in JULY, I would only fade!
In the last 10 years corn on the continuous chart has made its high in May, June, or July. 2013 was in a down trend from 2012. 2020 was covid.
Seasonals are pretty deadly to the price without major crop adversity threatening new crop supplies.
Every day closer to making the crop is one day less for specs to stay long based on potential damage to the growing crop.
Even slightly adverse weather is bearish because slightly adverse, defines most July's and is expected.
Crop ratings often fall 1-2% in many weeks during July, when there is greater evaporation/transpoevaporation than rain. Roots have access to soil moisture to offset that and when we have flash drought conditions like recently, along with a late planted crop in some places........deterioration can happen that much greater than expected. Then it's bullish.
Above normal temperatures increase evaporation even more. As long as we don't have excessive heat in July during pollination, the crop usually pollinates well.
THEN, temperatures matter the most by far as the kernels fill for corn.
If most of the Midwest has well above average temperatures in late July/August, yields will end up below trendline......regardless of the amount of rain.
Here are some recent post about heat fill. Producers know how huge it is but the thing is, crop ratings completely miss it.
Crop ratings tell us what the crop looks like on the outside. Filling takes place inside, in places that can't be seen.....so we don't find out about it until harvest.
However, after the shockingly low yields in the Summer of 2010 that was hot and wet and had good ratings..........the market got a big wake up call. Not sure that traders will trade that though.
More wonderful insight on heat fill here:
10 responses |
Started by metmike - Sept. 12, 2021, 12:01 p.m.
Heat fill for corn August 22, 2021
13 responses |
Started by metmike - Aug. 22, 2021, 8:31 p.m.
Heatfill coming up for corn
Started by metmike - June 25, 2020, 7
Heat Fill for corn
Started by metmike - Aug. 14, 2019, 5:51 p.m.
I've posted my heatfill explanation tons of times here.
The weather forecast is what will matter the most early next week:
If there was 1 most important map out of all those, I would say it's this one:
7 Day Total precipitation below:
In addition, the national radar is HUGE during rain events.
6-10/8-14 day can be very important if the other ones above are neutral or to offset/add to the bullishness/bearishness.
On days like today, when CZ is down modestly and SX is up sharply, you can bet that it wasn't the weather that caused it.
In late June/July, when the weather is the most important factor determining price, usually both new crop corn AND beans will move in the same direction.
Expectations for crop report tomorrow were most likely a huge factor.
Expiring CN/old crop is headed up towards the record high cash prices because there's hardly any corn to be found right now.
Thank you for the 7 day rain forecast.
To this layman, speculator, many parts of the corn belt WILL get 'nice' precipitation! Hardly bullish. BUT, will it in fact rain? Obviously, forecast v. actual will make Monday night open either a bold up or down move based upon perception Friday midday.
A notion circulated today was that bean acres are more likely to be revised lower with corn flat to small increase based upon prior years pattern review.
The July premiums will probably firm even more, until one day, July with no limit, does the cotton "thing" and corrects the equivalent of 3/4 limit moves in a single day.
Still looking to fade bullish report
How does month of July look beyond July 7?
Maps/models continue to get more bearish as the rains get closer and stay in the forecasts:
Well, this may be a twist upon the 3 day July 4 weekend.
It may signal a seasonal LOW!
Recall I have mentioned in the past that 3 day weekends tend to create cycle highs/lows (go back over a 6 month chart with the Mon or Fri no trade and see if high/low created). Perhaps grains have just marked a low.
Obviously, the report in 20 minutes will also have an impact!
No changes in the weather forecast from the last week: