| Date | Prior | Current | Rating | |
| Chicago Fed Nat'l Activity_M/M | May-22 | 0.47 | 0.01 | C |
| Chicago PMI_M/M | Jun-22 | 60.30 | 56.00 | C |
| Dallas Fed MFG | Jun-22 | -7.30 | -17.70 | C- |
| Richmond Fed_Mfg | Jun-22 | -9.00 | -19.00 | C- |
| ISM Mfg_M/M | Jun-22 | 56.10 | 53.00 | C |
| Durable Goods_M/M | May-22 | 0.40 | 0.70 | C+ |
| Existing Home Sales_M/M | May-22 | 5.61 | 5.41 | C- |
| New Homes Sales_M/M | May-22 | 591K | 696K | C+ |
| Pending Home Sales_M/M | May-22 | -3.90 | 0.70 | C+ |
| Case-Shiller HPI_M/M | Apr-22 | 2.40 | 1.80 | C |
| FHFA HPI_M/M | Jan-00 | 1.50 | 1.60 | C |
| Construction Spending_M/M | May-22 | 0.20 | -0.10 | C- |
| State Street Investors Confidence_M/M | Jun-22 | 97.10 | 94.60 | C- |
| Consumer Confidence_M/M | Jun-22 | 106.40 | 98.70 | C- |
| Consumer Sentiment_M/M | Jun-22 | 50.20 | 50.00 | C |
| Jobless Claims 1_W/W | 6/18/2022 | 229K | 229K | C |
| Jobless Claims 2_W/W | 6/25/2022 | 229K | 231.00 | C |
| GDP_Q/Q | Q1:2022 | -1.50 | -1.60 | C- |
| Corporate Profits_Q/Q | Q1:2022 | 15.70 | 15.20 | C |
| Personal Income_M/M | May-22 | 0.40 | 0.50 | C+ |
| Personal Spending_M/< | May-22 | 0.90 | 0.20 | C |
Not quite as dismal as the last few, but definite room for improvement.
Final GDP:Q1 estimate came out at -1.6. A slight downward revision.
Construction Spending came out in the negative for the first time since September last.
Mfg continues showing contraction with ISM moderating down to a post pandemic low of 53. A few months ago, this was above 60.
Jobless Claims ticked up a bit, but remain in very low territory.
State Street Investors have settled back down and remain in the low range along with Consumers.
In a surprise, New and Pending Home Sales showed healthy gains. We'll see next month.
Another Surprise was Durable Goods in May, showing a healthy .7%.
Not an encrouraging couple of weeks. Couple that with the latest ATL Fed GDP:Q2 forecast at -1, (linked below) and it doesn't get any prettier. Two consecutive quarters of contraction is the basic definition of recession.. Nothing really particularly bad this week, so I'll go with an optimistic C. It could very well be the last one we see for a while as nearly every underlying metric continues to weaken.
Thanks much Tim!!
"in a surprise, New and Pending Home Sales showed healthy gains. We'll see next month."
Could it be people trying to lock in interest rates here, knowing they will be shooting even higher?
Could it be people trying to lock in interest rates here, knowing they will be shooting even higher?
That may be a factor. I have not dove into the numbers this week, tho I may over the long weekend. But this is our anniversary, so not sure how much time my wife wants me spending researching anything besides her..
Happy anniversary Tim!
how long have you been married?
my parents married on July 4, 1955
They were maried before me :-)
Debbie and I got married on August 10, 1985.
Smartest thing that I ever did.
This is no longer TR, but WTF :-)
Patty and I married 19 years ago tomorrow. My first marriage.. Her 2nd. Her 1st husband died of cancer..
I was approaching 50 and decided it was getting to be time to settle down .
I had lot's of "near misses" and I knew every one of them would be a tragedy. Sooner if not later.
People would say "Obviously, you don't believe in marriage".. But the simple fact was that I did believe in marriage, which is why I could/would never commit.
Not long before Patty was the fair Veronique. A french aerobics instructor. I used to love telling people I was dating her. And there were lots of wonderful aspects to the relationship. She looked wonderful on my arm. A classic beauty. But we cheated on each other all the time . We ended up breaking each others hearts.
A few months later, I started chatting with Patty on-line. We both loved rock n roll. But she was still healing. In a way, I was too.
We talked on the phone and on-line and after a few months, one night, I said "I'm coming to pick you up". She refused, but I got in my car and started driving in the general direction of where I knew she lived. I called her on my cel and insisted she give me directions. She got me lost a few times, but eventually, I ended up in her driveway.
So we went out to a local dive to play pool and have a few beers. The band was the worst I'd ever heard. One of those bands where you had to listen real close for a few minutes to figure out what song they were tryng to play. But we had a blast.
After a few hours, I took her home. I asked if she minded if I kissed her good night. A slight little kiss. But the most exciting one I'd ever had.
When I got home, I called her up and we talked most of the night. We've not been apart much since.