INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - July 7, 2022, 4:27 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Friday, July 8, 2022 



8:30 AM ET. June U.S. Employment Report

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +250K: previous +390K)

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%: previous 3.6%)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.95)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.31%)

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.0%: previous +5.24%)

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.6)

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

                       Government Payrolls (previous +57K)

                       Private Payroll (previous +333K)

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.3%)

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg



8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

                       Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 208.1K)

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 7.5K)

                       Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 496.7K)



10:00 AM ET. May Monthly Wholesale Trade

                       Inventories, M/M% (expected +2.0%: previous +2.2%)



3:00 PM ET. May Consumer Credit

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +30.0B; previous +38.0B)



Monday, July 11, 2022  



10:00 AM ET. June Employment Trends Index

                       ETI (previous 119.77)

                       ETI, Y/Y%


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,964.13 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If the Dow renews the decline off last-week's high, June's low crossing at 29,653.29 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 31,885.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,964.13. First support is June's low crossing at 29.653.29. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 29,814.73. 



The September NASDAQ 100 closed sharply higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average 12,230.02 would signal that the near-term trend has turned sideways to higher. If September renews the decline off May's high, June's low crossing at 11,092.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 12,262.00. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is June's low crossing at 11,092.50. Second support is weekly support crossing at 10,942.25. 



The September S&P 500 closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off Tuesday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3950.00 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3950.0. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3979.24. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3741.25. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00.    



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



September T-bonds closed down 1-14. at 138-11. 



September T-bonds closed lower on Thursday following Wednesday's downside reversal due to profit taking as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at 142-06. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-28. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-01. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 134-08. Third support is June's low crossing at 131-01. 



September T-notes closed down 245 pts. at 118.090.



September T-notes closed lower on Thursday following Wednesday's downside reversal as it consolidated some of the rally off June's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.056 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the December-June decline crossing at 122.204. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.056. Second support is June's low crossing at 114.075.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



August crude oil closed higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, April's low crossing at $91.66 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.08. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $123.68. First support is April's low crossing at $91.66. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rallycrossing at $88.16.  



August heating oil closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0944 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8570. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.0943. First support is May's low crossing at 3.3578. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689.   



August unleaded gas closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.9354 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.0942 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.8570. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.0942. First support is May's low crossing at $2.9974. Second support is  the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.9354.



August Henry natural gas closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.917 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.917. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.680. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067 is the next downside target. Second support is the 75% retracement level of 2021-2022 rally crossing at 4.083.      



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The September Dollar closed slightly higher on Thursday as it extends this year's rally. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off May's low, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.762 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $107.070. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.762. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.553.   



The September Euro closed lower on Thursday as it extends this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.06137 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.04706. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05326. First support is today's low crossing at $1.01950. Second support is the December-2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540. 



The September British Pound closed higher due to short covering on Thursday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 87% retracement level of 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1802 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2215 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2215. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2374. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1892. Second support is the 87% retracement level of 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1802.  

 

The September Swiss Franc closed lower on Thursday as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03395 signals that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.06242 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 1.05910. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.06242. First support is today's low crossing at 1.03095. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235. 



The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Thursday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 75.79 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.85 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.85. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.84. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 76.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 75.79.



The September Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Thursday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076489 would signal that the short-term trend has turned neutral to high prices are possible near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074406. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076489. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.073390. Second support is the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730.    



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



August gold closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off March's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the August-2021low crossing at $1710.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1819.50 would confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1797.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1819.50. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1730.70. Second support is the August-2021low crossing at $1710.20.  



September silver closed slightly higher on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.977 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 20.252. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.977. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 18.705. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 17.015 . 



September copper closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 3.2498 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9203 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.6499. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.9203. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.2730. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 3.2498.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up $0.11 1/4-cents at $5.96 1/4. 



December corn closed higher on Thursday and filled Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.04 1/4 as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at $6.04 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.28 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.73. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4.    



September wheat closed up $0.32 1/2-cents at $8.36 1/2.  



September wheat closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.71 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.84 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.71 1/2. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $7.85 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May's rally crossing at $7.23.



September Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.37 1/4-cents at $8.89 1/4.



September Kansas City wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.37 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.43 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.37 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rallycrossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.48 1/4-cents at $9.34 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.91 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.91 1/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.91 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $8.70 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4.

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed up $0.42 3/4 at $13.65 1/2.



November soybeans closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.11 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at $13.91 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at $13.91 1/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.07. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.76.



December soybean meal closed up $12.30 at $391.80. 



December soybean meal closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $398.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is the April 21st high crossing at $429.60. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.  



December soybean oil closed up 295-pts. at 59.59. 



December soybean oil closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off June's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Friday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 67.76. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 55.69. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $0.35 at $109.55. 



August hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 21st high crossing at $110.23 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If August renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $98.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $111.75. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $114.30. First support is May's low crossing at $98.65. Second support is last-November's low crossing at $95.67. 



August cattle closed up $0.25 at $134.75 



August cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.74 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If August renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $129.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $131.70. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.97.    



August Feeder cattle closed down $0.75 at $172.55. 



August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Close below the June 13th low crossing at $169.40 would open the door for a possible test of the May 31st low crossing at $164.75 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the June 13th low crossing at $169.40. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the May 24th low crossing at $21.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $23.71 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $23.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 24.18. First support is the May 24th low crossing at $21.14. Second support is May's low crossing at $20.24.                    



September cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, the November-2020 low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target.  



October sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off May's high, the February 28th low crossing at 17.57 is the next downside target.                      



October cotton closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 23rd gap crossing at 114.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - July 7, 2022, 8:17 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

As we've been saying the last couple of days.........the lows were being put in and now ARE in.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/86654/#86807