KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, July 8, 2022
8:30 AM ET. June U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +250K: previous +390K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%: previous 3.6%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 31.95)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.31%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +5.0%: previous +5.24%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.6)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +57K)
Private Payroll (previous +333K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.3%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 208.1K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 7.5K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 496.7K)
10:00 AM ET. May Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (expected +2.0%: previous +2.2%)
3:00 PM ET. May Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (expected +30.0B; previous +38.0B)
Monday, July 11, 2022
10:00 AM ET. June Employment Trends Index
ETI (previous 119.77)
ETI, Y/Y%
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally.The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,211.39 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off the June 27th high, June's low crossing at 11,068.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,211.39. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 11,351.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,068.50.
The September S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight.Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3950.00 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 3973.94. If September renews the decline off last-Tuesday's high, June's low crossing at 3642.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3950.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3973.94. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3741.25. Second support is June's low crossing at 3642.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a double top with May's high has been posted with Wednesday's high. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-04 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 141-21. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 136-04. Second support is June's low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that a double top with May's high has been posted with Wednesday's high. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.061 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at 120.195. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.061. Second support is June's low crossing at 114.075.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:August crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the April 25th low crossing at $93.45 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $105.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.21. First support is May's low crossing at $95.47. Second support is the April 25th low crossing at $93.45.
August heating oil was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.0624 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.8608. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.0624. First support is the May's low crossing at $3.3578. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2689.
August unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6938 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August extends the decline off June's high, the April 25th low crossing at 2.9974 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.5679. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6938. First support is May's low crossing at $3.1835. Second support is the April 25th low crossing at 2.9974.
August Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.797 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067 is the next downside target. First resistance is 20-day moving average crossing at 6.797. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.665. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.067. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4.083.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's rally, the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.912 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $107.615. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $108.717. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.912. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $103.639.
The September Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05033 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the June 27th high crossing at $1.06785. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $1.08365. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1.01215. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.
The September British Pound was steady to lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2188 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1802 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2188. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2362. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1892. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1802.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off June's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Thursday's decline and close below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03356 opens the door for additional weakness near-term. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.02407 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1.06242 is the next upside target. First resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 1.06242. First support is the 62% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.02407. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235.
The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Tuesday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.82. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $79.84. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $76.43. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79.
The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076389 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074355. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.076389. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.073390. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was steady to lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends the decline off June's high, the August-2021 low crossing at $1710.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1813.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average $1788.10. Second is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1813.60. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1730.70. Second support is the August-2021 low crossing at $1710.20.
September silver was steady to lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.823 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $20.054. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.823. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $18.705. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015.
September copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.8500 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2498 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.6297. Second resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 3.8500. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.2498. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extended the short covering rally off Wednesday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.20 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.67 1/4. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.
September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.75 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.60. First support is the February 16th low crossing at $7.77 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.
September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.33 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.33. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.24 1/2. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.
September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.77 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.79. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $10.77 1/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $8.70 1/2. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at $13.91 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the crossing at $12.99 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at $13.91 1/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.02 1/4. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $12.74.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $398.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $418.00. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $419.10. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's gap crossing at 62.01. Second resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 67.76. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 55.69. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
August hogs closed up $0.35 at $109.55.
August hogs closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June 21st high crossing at $110.23 would open the door for additional gains near-term. If August renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $98.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $111.75. Second resistance is the April 28th high crossing at $114.30. First support is May's low crossing at $98.65. Second support is last-November's low crossing at $95.67.
August cattle closed up $0.25 at $134.75
August cattle closed higher on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $134.74 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If August renews the decline off June's high, May's low crossing at $129.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. Third resistance is the top of the April 25th gap crossing at $140.27. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $131.70. Second support is May's low crossing at $129.97.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.75 at $172.55.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Thursday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Friday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Close below the June 13th low crossing at $169.40 would open the door for a possible test of the May 31st low crossing at $164.75 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off May's low, May's high crossing at $177.50 is the next upside target. First resistance is May's high crossing at $177.50. Second resistance is the April 22nd high crossing at $178.23. First support is the June 13th low crossing at $169.40. Second support is the May 31st low crossing at $164.75. Third support is May's low crossing at $162.80.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed slightly lower on Thursday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the May 24th low crossing at $21.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at $23.71 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at $23.71. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 24.18. First support is the May 24th low crossing at $21.14. Second support is May's low crossing at $20.24.
September cocoa closed slightly lower on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, the November-2020 low crossing at 22.75 is the next downside target.
October sugar closed sharply higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off May's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.58 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off May's high, the February 28th low crossing at 17.57 is the next downside target.
October cotton closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of Wednesday's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. Closes above the June 23rd gap crossing at 114.66 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
Lows should be in for the grains if the week 2 weather maps don't change over the weekend!