|Small Business Optimism_M/M||Jun-22||93.10||89.50||C-|
|Empire State Mfg_M/M||Jul-22||-1.20||11.10||B-|
Another lite week for Data, but some important stuff.
Obviously, inflation has gone from ugly to fugly. This is unsustainable in both CPI and PPI. With energy in something close to a free fall, and my premise that the single biggest factor in inflation is energy price, maybe we'll see reductions before the recession (yes, we very well may have a recession) gets too deep. If nothing else, diesel is down 50 cents in the last 3 weeks at my local Love's truck stop. With my impending vacation, every 10 cent change translates into 25 dollars +/- for the entire trip. Imagine what this means for truckers who drive a lot more miles with about half the MPG.
Small Business Optimism has actually dropped below the worst of the Pandemic 2 years ago.
Industrial Production has dipped into negative territory, but it's changed from month to month, so nothing really new.
Jobless Claims continue to inch up. They remain in an historically low rage. This in conjunction with JOLTS may very well be the canary in the coal mine. Neither have tripped my wire yet, but that's where a lot of my atention is right now.
Consumers, along with Small Business Owners are not to happy either, but they perked up a little in the latest tho remain in very low territory.
Like last week, we had some very pleasant (to me) surprises. Retail Sales had a good June, showing a strong 1% gain.
And Empire State MFG!!!! After several months of decline, a 12+% Turn around! Looking behind the numbers (new Orders, Back Orders, etc), there are some grey areas, but a pretty solid report, all things considered.
On the strength of Retail and Empire State, I'll go with a C for the week and hope I am not too optimistic.