Thursday, July 25--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Markets Report

OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS

World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight, as
Asian bourses were mostly lower and European equities
mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed
openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock
index futures on Wednesday hit new contract or multi-month
highs. 

The buzz in the marketplace this morning is the big
downside hit to the Facebook stock price after that company
posted a big miss in earnings Wednesday afternoon.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices
near steady and trading just above $69.00 a barrel. The
U.S. dollar index is weaker early today.
 
The big U.S. economic data point of the week is Friday’s
first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP). The number
is expected to come in at up a strong 4.4%. However, some
analysts are even calling for a number of 5.0% or just
above.

U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the
weekly jobless claims report, durable goods orders and the
Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.

--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES 

September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower
on profit taking after hitting a 5.5-month high on
Wednesday. The bulls have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s
high of 2,838.50 and then at 2,850.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at Wednesday’s low of 2,814.00 and
then at this week’s low of 2,792.50. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in
early trading, on profit taking after hitting a contract
high on Wednesday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is seen at the overnight high of 7,429.75 and
then at 7,450.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 7,388.50 and then at 7,350.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.0.

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
the Wednesday’s high of 143 19/32 and then at 144 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
support lies at this week’s low of 142 20/32 and then at 142
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
 
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of
119.22.5 and then at 119.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
this week’s low of 119.10.5 and then at 119.06.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage but trading has turned choppy. The
shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are
neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at this week’s high of 94.635 and then at 95.000.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.870
and then at 93.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

September Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early
U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI
and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance
at the overnight high of $69.74 and then at $70.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $68.00 and then
at this week’s low of $67.56. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Bulls have
gained good upside momentum late this week. A surprisingly
downbeat trader take on a U.S. spring wheat crop tour this
week has boosted wheat prices sharply higher, and corn and
soybeans are seeing spillover support. Also, with the spring
wheat crop surprisingly missing heretofore very upbeat
condition expectations, many are wondering if the same will
hold true for corn and soybean conditions in the Midwest in
the coming few weeks.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts,
you should consider your financial experience, goals and
financial resources, and know how much you can afford to
lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts
and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You
should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of
trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure
documents your broker is required to give you. 

Jim Wyckoff