Happy July 26th!
Scroll down and really enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.
Turning wet C/S.Plains, rains march east. Rains chances today eastern belt with reinforcing cold front. The next week will be wet in many places(some that need rain badly).........not as much in the N.Plains/far Upper Midwest.
The latest forecasts are below.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
Excessive Rainfall threat.......... moving into Central/Southern Plains (KS/NE) area.
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen. A couple of hot spots.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
High Temperatures today and Friday....... feels like Fall in the N.Plains/Midwest. Hot South.
Blast furnace in the Southwest!!!
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Comfortable air N.Plains/ Midwest. High dewpoints for Northeast/East Coast...........Atlantic moisture pouring in!
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.
Highs days 3-7.
Magnificent North(especially Upper Midwest/N.Plains). Then to East Coast. Hot South...then cooling.
Record smashing Heat West!!!!!
How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?
Below average in the N/C.Plains to Midwest. Not quite as hot S.Plains.
Record heat in the West and this is the hottest time of year!!
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Active in the far Northeast with Atlantic moisture hanging in. Active in the Central/Southern Plains......new cold front in the Eastern Cornbelt.
Satellite picture.
Rains the past 24 hours.
Wet in the East. High Plains to Upper Midwest. It was dry in Eastern Cornbelt southward.
Missouri/Arkansas to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(big relief KS/MO/AR coming soon)
NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days:
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: New strong cool surge in Midwest.............. heat backed up West.
In 5+ days:
Hot West!! Below average temperatures Midwest to South.
In 10+ days Hot West!!!! Some heat spills east to northeast.
Day 15 Hot West to N.Plains.............Heat may be shifting and moving east.
Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. Same question of the last week. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?
Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward? Will this nudge the trough northward?
Around half of the members have this idea.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............looks drastically different than yesterday!
Big heat ridge builds back up West! Strong cooling Plains and eastward.
Dry and cool northwest flow N.Plains/Midwest.
Precip below:
August Forecast. Updated by the NWS last Thursday. Am showing this 1 last time to note that, because its a week old, its outdated.
Very warm/hot, except for the N.Plains.
Dry Southern Plains to Southwest Cornbelt.............where soils are driest right now(there is a correlation as drought begets drought)
Not alot different with the 12Z guidance for the country but it has a crazy solution at the end of the period. An insanely cold air mass blasting south thru Canada that would cause massive frost/freeze damage to the canola and other crops in W.Canada with a record early freeze.
I'm showing this mainly for entertainment purposes as that solution is a big outlier.
Still a great deal of uncertainty.......for me at least in what will happen in week 2.
Here is the last operational 12z GFS:
gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht |
Tons of rain except in the N.Plains.
Last 12z Canadian ensembles. A bit stronger now with the troughing an jet stream in the northern parts of the US. Several members have an extremely deep upper level low in southcentral Canada around or just north of the Hudson Bay. This would set up a dynamic that could pull down some extreme cold from the Arctic southward.
Interestingly, the last 12z operational GFS gets monumentally carried away with this and mega amplifies that dynamic.
A meteorologist loves to sees extreme solutions like that and wants to believe it because its so exciting to follow and analyze(vs weather that stays the same and is boring) but the reality is that models that suddenly show something like that, don't have a history of displaying much skill.
Solution errors magnify with time.
384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 11, 2018 12UTC
Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members
NWS extended forecast........below temperature anomalies continue to shrink in size and magnitude vs their previous outlook.............but the ng market traded this Tue/Wed.
Temps on the forecast below morph towards normal. A dry period in the 6-10 day in some spots before widespread wetness spreads to most places.
Very wet along the East Coast.
Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
Temperature Probability |
Precipitation Probability |
Extreme weather days 3-7:
More intense heat out West!
Heavy rain events, possibly starting in S.Plains before moving east. Strong heavy rain signal for this period.
This was the last GFS for 2 week rains......impressive for this time of year that is often dry.
As expected, the 18Z run of the operational GFS does not have the record cold coming into W. Canada that the 12z, outlier run had.
Nuff said on weather for now.
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |