Weather Thursday
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Started by metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:44 a.m.

Happy July 26th!


 Scroll down and really enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.


Turning wet C/S.Plains, rains march east. Rains chances today eastern belt with reinforcing cold front. The next week will be wet in many places(some that need rain badly).........not as much in the N.Plains/far Upper Midwest.


 The latest forecasts are below.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

   




7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:46 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat.......... moving into Central/Southern Plains (KS/NE) area.



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:48 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen. A couple of hot spots.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:50 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Friday....... feels like Fall in the N.Plains/Midwest. Hot South.

Blast furnace in the Southwest!!!

                    

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:51 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Comfortable air N.Plains/ Midwest.  High dewpoints for Northeast/East Coast...........Atlantic moisture pouring in!


Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:52 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Magnificent North(especially Upper Midwest/N.Plains).  Then to East Coast. Hot South...then cooling.

Record smashing Heat West!!!!!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:54 a.m.
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How do these temperatures compare to average at this time of year?

Below average in the N/C.Plains to Midwest. Not quite as hot S.Plains.

Record heat in the West and this is the hottest time of year!!


High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:56 a.m.
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Active in the far Northeast with Atlantic moisture hanging in. Active in the Central/Southern Plains......new cold front in the Eastern Cornbelt.


https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image:



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 9:59 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 10 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.     

Wet in the East.    High Plains to Upper Midwest. It was dry in Eastern Cornbelt southward.

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 10:01 a.m.
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Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(big relief KS/MO/AR coming soon)

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"



By metmike - July 26, 2018, 10:02 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days:

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


                             

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:  New strong cool surge in Midwest.............. heat  backed up West.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Hot West!!  Below average temperatures  Midwest to South.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Hot West!!!!  Some heat spills east to northeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 240 hour forecast product


Day 15  Hot West to N.Plains.............Heat may be shifting and moving east.NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 10:08 a.m.
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Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. Same question of the last week. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast back to Upper Midwest be late in the week 2 period? Will this mark a pattern change?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this nudge the trough northward?

Around half of the members have this idea.


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 10:11 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............looks drastically different than yesterday!

Big heat ridge builds back up West! Strong cooling Plains and eastward.

Dry and cool northwest flow N.Plains/Midwest.  



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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August Forecast. Updated by the NWS last Thursday. Am showing this 1 last time to note that, because its a week old, its outdated. 

Very warm/hot, except for the N.Plains.

Dry Southern Plains to Southwest Cornbelt.............where soils are driest right now(there is a correlation as drought begets drought)



/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif
/products/predictions/30day/off14_prcp.gif
By metmike - July 26, 2018, 1:37 p.m.
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Not alot different with the 12Z guidance for the country but it has a crazy solution at the end of the period. An insanely cold air mass blasting south thru Canada that would cause massive frost/freeze damage to the canola and other crops in W.Canada with a record early freeze.

I'm showing this mainly for entertainment purposes as that solution is a big outlier.


Still a great deal of uncertainty.......for me at least in what will happen in week 2. 

Here is the last operational 12z GFS:




      

gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_384_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_384_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_384_850_temp_ht_s.gif

  

Tons of rain except in the N.Plains.

gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 1:49 p.m.
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Last 12z Canadian ensembles. A bit stronger now with the troughing an jet stream in the northern parts of the US. Several members have an extremely deep upper level low in southcentral Canada around or just north of the Hudson Bay. This would set up a dynamic that could pull down some extreme cold from the Arctic southward. 

Interestingly, the last 12z operational GFS gets monumentally carried away with this and mega amplifies that dynamic. 

A meteorologist loves to sees extreme solutions like that and wants to believe it because its so exciting to follow and analyze(vs weather that stays the same and is boring) but the reality is that models that suddenly show something like that, don't have a history of displaying much skill. 


Solution errors magnify with time. 


384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 11, 2018 12UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for global GEM, control (GEM 0) and the 20 ensemble members

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 3:51 p.m.
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NWS extended forecast........below temperature anomalies continue to shrink in size and magnitude vs their previous outlook.............but the ng market traded this Tue/Wed.

Temps on the forecast below morph towards normal. A dry period in the 6-10 day in some spots before widespread wetness spreads to most places.

 Very wet along the East Coast.



Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - July 26, 2018, 3:55 p.m.
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Extreme weather days 3-7:

More intense heat out West!

Heavy rain events, possibly starting in S.Plains before moving east. Strong heavy rain signal for this period. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png


This was the last GFS for 2 week rains......impressive for this time of year that is often dry.    


gfs_namer_372_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - July 26, 2018, 7:20 p.m.
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As expected, the 18Z run of the operational GFS does not have the record cold coming into W. Canada that the 12z, outlier run had. 

Nuff said on weather for now.            

      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif