INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 25, 2022, 7:42 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, July 25, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. June CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

 

                       NAI (previous 0.01)

 

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.20)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 

                       Business Activity (previous -17.7)

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 2.3)

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnightas investors brace for the busiest week of the year for corporate earnings and economic data as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 12,973.75 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,997.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 12,698.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 12,973.75. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,997.44. Second support is the July 13th low crossing at 11,479.25. Third support is the June 30th low crossing at 11,351.00.  



The September S&P 500 was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4016.25, which coincides with the March-April downtrend line would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day crossing at 3874.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4016.25. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the January-June decline crossing at 4078.81. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3874.06. Second support is the July 14th low crossing at 3723.75.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-02 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 143-00. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 143-25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-02. Second support is the July 11th low crossing at 136-24. Third support is June's low crossing at 131-01.



September T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 117.145 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 120.209. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 122.204 is the next downside target. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 117.145. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 116.110.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:September crude oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral signaling that sideways prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43 is the next downside target. If September renews the rally off the July 14th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.72 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $99.27. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.72. First support is July 14th low crossing at $88.23. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $86.43.



September heating oil was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.1874 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7935 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.7935. Second resistance is the July 1st high crossing at $3.9461. First support is the July 6th low crossing at $3.2946. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.1874.



September unleaded gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.2347 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.2347. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4442. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8073. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.4586.  



September Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 8.550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.649 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 8.550. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 9.070. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.516. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.649.     



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was steady to lower overnight and is trading is trading below the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.533. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.533 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews this year's rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target.First resistance is the July 14th high crossing at $109.140. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the 2001-2008 decline on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.533. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $104.438.  



The September Euro was higher overnight while extending the trading range of the past four-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02847 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off May's high, the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02847. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.05055. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $1.00000. Second support is the December 2002 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.98540.  



The September British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the July 14th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2120 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2120. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2255. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.1778. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.



The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight and is working on a possible inside day as it consolidates some of the rally off the July 14th low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off the July 14th low, the June 29th high crossing at 1.05910 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03185 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 87% retracement level of June's rally crossing at 1.00974 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.04620. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.05910. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 1.01650. Second support is June's low crossing at 1.00235. 

 

The September Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off the July 14th low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.74 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $77.19 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $77.74. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at $78.02. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.79. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $75.09.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075399 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May's high, the August-1998 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.068730 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.074075. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.075399. First support is July's low crossing at 0.072085. Second support is the September-1990 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.072160.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Augustgold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average $1747.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If August renews the decline off June's high, the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average $1747.30. Second is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1804.70. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1678.40. Second support is the March-2021 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $1673.30.



September silver was steady to lower overnight as it extends this month's trading range. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $19.288 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off March's high, the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.288. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.774. First support is the July 14th low crossing at $18.010. Second support is the June-2020 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at $17.015.



September copper was steady to higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4512 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.4512. Second resistance is the June 28th high crossing at 3.8500. First support is the July 15th low crossing at 3.1315. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.8770.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, January low crossing at $5.42 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.23 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $6.58 1/2. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $5.74 3/4. Second support is the January low crossing at $5.42 1/2.   



September wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off May's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.34 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support is the last-Friday's low crossing at $7.54. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.23.  



September Kansas City wheat was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2 the next downside target. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.92. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $9.98 1/4. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.32 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.64 1/2.



September Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.12 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.41 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.44 1/2. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $8.69 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.12 3/4. 

     

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off June's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June's high, the January 18th crossing at $12.76 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $13.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $13.93. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $14.38 1/2. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $12.99 1/4. Second support is the January 18th low crossing at $12.76.

 

December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off June's high, July's low crossing at $375.30 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at $418.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $397.50. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $418.00. First support is July's low crossing at $375.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $365.40. 



December soybean oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 11th high crossing at 62.65 would mark an upside breakout of July's trading range while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If December renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at 62.65. Second resistance is the June 29th high crossing at 67.76. First support is the July 14th low crossing at 54.42. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 53.93.   

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



August hogs closed up $2.28 at $118.58. 



August hogs closed higher on Friday as it extended the rally off June's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the aforementioned rally, April's high crossing at $121.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $118.90. Second resistance is April's high crossing at $121.25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $112.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $108.99. 



August cattle closed up $1.43 at $137.15 



August cattle closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at $137.95 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $134.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the June 9th high crossing at $137.95. Second resistance is the bottom of the April 25th gap crossing at $138.75. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $132.88. Second support is June's low crossing at $131.70. 



August Feeder cattle closed up $3.38 at $181.65. 



August Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Friday as it extends the rally off May's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends this month's rally, March's high crossing at $182.10 is the next upside target. Close below Monday's low crossing at $175.28 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is March's high crossing at $182.10. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $187.10. First support is Monday's low crossing at $175.28. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $172.31.     



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



September coffee closed sharply lower on Friday as it consolidated some of the rally off July's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible. If September renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.24 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $22.24. Second resistance is July's high crossing at $22.90. First support is July's low crossing at $19.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $18.41.                    



September cocoa closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews the decline off April's high, the July-2021 low crossing at 22.32 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 24.17 is the next upside target.    



October sugar closed sharply lower for the fourth-day in a row on Friday as it extends this week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this week's decline, July's low crossing at 18.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.                   



October cotton closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 100.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 87.67 is the next downside target. 

Comments
By metmike - July 25, 2022, 9:43 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine.

Weather has turned bullish for portions of the WCB, including IA.