KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, August 29, 2022
10:30 AM ET. August Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -22.6)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 3.8)
Tuesday, August 30, 2022
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +12.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +13.5%)
9:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00/ AM ET. June U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. June S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +19%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +20.5%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +1.5%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +19.7%)
10:00 AM ET. July Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
10:00 AM ET. August Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 95.7)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx (previous 141.3)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -5.6M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
Wednesday, August 31, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 270.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 202.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.5%)
Refinance Idx (previous 609.8)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -2.8%)
9:45 AM ET. August Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey -
Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 52.1)
10:00 AM ET. July Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 421.672M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.282M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 215.647M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.027M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.594M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.662M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.339M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.882M)
3:00 PM ET. July Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Thursday, September 1, 2022
7:30 AM ET. August Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -21%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 243K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -2K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1415000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -19K)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity (previous (previous -7.3%)
Unit Labor Costs (previous +12.6%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons) (previous 475.3K)
Soybeans (Metric Tons) (previous 5203.7K)
Wheat (Metric Tons) (previous 409.6K)
9:45 AM ET. August US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 52.2)
10:00 AM ET. July Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (previous -1.1%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. August ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (previous 52.8)
Prices Idx (previous 60.0)
Employment Idx (previous 49.9)
Inventories (previous 57.3)
New Orders Idx (previous 48.0)
Production Idx (previous 53.5)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2579B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +60B)
11:00 AM ET. August Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 51.1)
12:00 AM ET. August Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:00 PM ET. August Domestic Auto Industry Sales
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, September 2, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +528K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.27)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.15)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.47%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +5.22%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.6)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous +57K)
Private Payroll (previous +471K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.1%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (previous +2.0%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +1.4%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The September NASDAQ 100 gapped down and was lower overnight as it extended last-Friday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,508.24 would open the door for a possible test of the July 26th low crossing at 12,072.00. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13,193.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 13,220.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 13,740.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,508.24. Second support is the July 26th low crossing at 12,072.00.
The September S&P 500 was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day crossing at 4005.68 would open the door for additional weakness. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at 4217.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 4217.25. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 4327.50. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4005.64. Second support is the July 26th low crossing at 3913.25.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the June 28th low crossing at 134-08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 140-06. Second resistance is the August 10-day moving average crossing at 144-02. First support is the June 28th low crossing at 134-08. Second support is the June 16th low crossing at 131-01.
September T-notes was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, the June 26th low crossing at 116.110 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.280 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 118.280. Second resistance is the August 4th high crossing at 120.290. First support is the June 26th low crossing at 116.110. Second support is the June 14st low crossing at 117.075.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:October crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at $95.76 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October resumes the decline off June's high, the February 18th low crossing at $79.83 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $95.76. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $99.75. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $84.81. Second support is the February 18th low crossing at $79.83.
October heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends the rally off August's low, June's high crossing at $4.2595 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.5430 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $4.0392. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.2595. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.7474. Second support is the 20-day low crossing at $3.5430.
October unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the August 11th high crossing at $2.8350 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off June's high, the March-2022 low crossing at $2.4776 is the next downside target. First resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $2.8350. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.8700. First support is the August 5th low crossing at $2.5263. Second support is the March-2022 low crossing at $2.4776.
October Henry natural gas was steady to lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.760 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off August's low, weekly resistance crossing at 9.752 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 9.650. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 9.752. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.760. Second support is August's low crossing at 7.536.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was higher overnight trading as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. However, the low-range overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.424 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $109.445. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $106.987. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $105.424.
The September Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. The overnight trade sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.02543 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.02543. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1.03965. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $0.99160. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.
The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this year's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2051 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2051. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at 1.2286. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1651. Second support is the March-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.1438.
The September Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the aforementioned decline, July's low crossing at 1.01650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04814 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04814. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07010. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.03155. Second support is July's low crossing at 1.01650.
The September Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 75.61 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 77.45. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $78.55. First support is the overnight low crossing at $76.45. Second support is July's low crossing at $75.61.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August's high, long-term support crossing at 0.070000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074162 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.074162. Second resistance is the August 11th high crossing at 0.076115. First support is the overnight low crossing at 0.072040. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.070000.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was lower overnight as it extends the decline off the August 10th high crossing at 1824.60. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $1696.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1782.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1782.40. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at $1824.60. First support is the overnight low crossing at $1731.40. Second support is July's low crossing at $1727.00.
September silver was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at $18.010 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.698 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.698. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $20.870. First support is the overnight low crossing at 18.300. Second support is July's low crossing at $18.010.
September copper was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5648 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8395 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8395. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0590. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5648. Second support is the July 15th low crossing at 3.1315.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn gapped up and was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $6.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.26 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $6.88. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.26 1/2. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.04.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.26 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the August 11th high crossing at $8.36 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $8.63 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.76. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $7.43 1/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $7.26 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off May's high, February's low crossing at $7.72 1/2 the next downside target. Closes above the July 29th high crossing at $9.21 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $9.21 1/2. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is the 62% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.30 3/4. Second support is the February's low crossing at $7.72 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the July-August trading range. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.29 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.56 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends last-week's decline, the August 16th low crossing at $13.76 is the next downside target. If November extends the rally off the August 3rd low, the July 29th high crossing at $14.89 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $14.84 1/2. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $14.89. First support is the August 3rd low crossing at $13.56. Second support is July's low crossing at $12.88 1/2.
December soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the February 22nd high crossing at $4.39 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $411.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $4.36 60. Second resistance is the February 22nd high crossing at $4.39. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $411.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $403.60.
December soybean oil was lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.03 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the August 12th high crossing at 68.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.03. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.
Thanks tallpine. Glad to have you back.
Something's up for corn and wheat to be MUCH higher and beans to be MUCH lower.
It's not weather. Too late in the growing season.
Too early to worry about dryness in the S.Plains for planting the HRW wheat.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/
Natural gas weather is just slightly bullish and the front month expired today.
Prices in Europe, that are 7 times higher than our prices are dominating that market.
The US will resume exports there in November. Any news that changes that time frame will cause a spike of $5,000+ up or down.
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87816/
https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88331/