INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 13, 2022, 8:15 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, September 13, 2022  

 



 

 

N/A 4th Quarter Manpower U.S. Employment Outlook Survey

 



 

 

6:00 AM ET. August NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

 

                       Small Business Idx (previous 89.9)

 

8:30 AM ET. August CPI

 

                       CPI, M/M% (previous +0.0%)

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -4.6%)

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +1.1%)

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +8.5%)

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +5.9%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August Real Earnings

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +10.9%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +10.9%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 38.1)

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 32.6)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. August Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.6M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.8M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.8M)

 



 

 

  N/A               U.N. General Assembly begins

 



 

 

Wednesday, September 14, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 258.1)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.8%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 197.8)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.7%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 556.4)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.1%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August PPI

 

                       PPI, M/M% (previous -0.5%)

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous -0.7%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 427.191M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +8.845M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 214.808M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.333M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.801M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.095M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 90.9%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.892M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.181M)

 



 

 

Thursday, September 15, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes

 

                       Import Prices (previous -1.4%)

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.7%)

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -6.8%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 222K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -6K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1473000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +36K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 

                       Corn (Metric Tons)

 

                       Soybeans (Metric Tons)

 

                       Wheat (Metric Tons)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 

                       Business Activity (previous 6.2)

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 43.6)

 

                       Employment (previous 24.1)

 

                       New Orders (previous -5.1)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 23.3)

 

                       Delivery Times (previous 2.7)

 

                       Inventories (previous 2.3)

 

                       Shipments (previous 24.8)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous -31.3)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 7.4)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous -29.6)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 32.7)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. August Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0%)

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.7%)

 



 

 

9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

 

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 80.3%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 

                       Total Inventories (previous +1.4%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2694B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +54B)

 

                        

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, September 16, 2022  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 55.1)

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 54.9)

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 55.5)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August State Employment and Unemployment

 

4:00 PM ET. July Treasury International Capital Data

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight tradingsets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,813.04 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the August 26th high crossing at 13,296.25. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,453.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,813.04. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 13,296.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 12,722.02. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,453.62.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, the August 26th high crossing at 4234.25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 4021.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 4234.26. Second resistance is August's highcrossing at 4345.75. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4062.05. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4021.57. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-26 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 130-27 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133-24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-19. First support is Monday's low crossing at 132-02. Second support is June's low crossing at 130-27.



December T-notes was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 115.067 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.045 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 117.045. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.149. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 115.135. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 115.067. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:October crude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $75.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.50. First support is February 18th low crossing at $79.83. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $75.35.



October heating oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below September's low crossing at $3.4433 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.7771 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.7771. Second resistance is the August 25th high crossing at $4.0392. First support is September's low crossing at $3.4433. Second support is the August 15th low crossing at $3.3491.



October unleaded gas was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5665 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.2446 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5665. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.7072. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.2890. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.2446.



October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.891 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.133 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.891. Second resistance is the September 1st high crossing at 9.394. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.685. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.133.     



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The low-range overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.133 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $110.480. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.133. Second support is August's low crossing at $104.150.



The December Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last-Tuesday's low. The overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.02146 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.02146. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1.04650. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $0.98710. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211. 



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1742 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 1.1400 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1742. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1947. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1407. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.1400.



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03879 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.06325. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04486. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03875. 

 

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.38 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.18. Second resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $77.90. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.38. Second support is September's low crossing at $75.67.



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.072668 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.072668. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073899. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 0.069665. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1757.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $1696.10 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1757.60. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at $1824.60. First support is September's low crossing at $1699.10. Second support is July's low crossing at $1696.10.



December silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $21.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $18.481 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.  First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $21.020. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $18.481. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.  



December copper was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, August's high crossing at 3.7835 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5106 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8291. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.3610. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355. 



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low following Monday's friendly supply-demand and crop production estimate from the USDA. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.58 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.58 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.25 1/2. 



December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.15 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $8.77 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $7.43 1/4.   



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average$9.52 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.51. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is the 50-day moving average$9.52 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.08 1/2.



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the July-September trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.29 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.29 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were higher overnight as they extend the rally off last-Thursday's low following Monday's bullish supply-demand and crop production report, which caught the market off guard. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.24 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.24 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average $13.99 1/2.

 

December soybean meal was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's huge rally. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $440.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $416.30. Second support is September's low crossing at $404.30.  



December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 65.14 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at 55.53.    


Comments
By metmike - Sept. 13, 2022, 11:27 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!