NG 9/13/22+
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Started by WxFollower - Sept. 13, 2022, 1:06 p.m.

 Time for a new NG thread. Europe/LNG is still one of the dominant factors affecting NG prices. Recently, at least about every other day I've been reading about this as having a strong effect on a particular day's prices.

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Re: NG 9/13/22+
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By metmike - Sept. 14, 2022, 12:48 a.m.
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Thanks Larry!


Previous thread here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/87816/

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2022, 1:57 p.m.
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From earlier this morning:

Natural Gas Futures Extend Rally Early as Forecasts Maintain Late-Season Heat

metmike: CDD's really have not changed much this week. So why did NG decide to rally this much now based on the same forecast?

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2022, 2:01 p.m.
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Seasonals.....often strong buying between now and the start of the heating season which is when we need to have a large amount of gas in storage to meet high Winter residential demand for heating.

The export market has been greatly expanded since 2017, making GLOBAL demand and pricing(energy crisis in Europe) MUCH, MUCH more powerful and often the most important of all factors for pricing US natural gas.

So this graph below would/will look MUCH different if you took just very recent years and those to come.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4160158-natural-gas-seasonal-play-sets-up-for-springtime-option-sellers

Natural Gas: Seasonal Play Sets Up For Springtime Option Sellers | Seeking  Alpha

           

By metmike - Sept. 14, 2022, 2:06 p.m.
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The most important thing to note on the graph below from last Thursday's EIA report is the blue line. As long as it sits towards the bottom of the 5 year average, the sensitivity of the market to supply concerns(here and in Europe) ahead of the key, heating demand season will be elevated!

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending September 2, 2022   |  Released: September 8, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: September 15, 2022 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    


Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,694 Bcf as of Friday, September 2, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 54 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 222 Bcf less than last year at this time and 349 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,043 Bcf. At 2,694 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2017 through 2021. The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.


By metmike - Sept. 14, 2022, 2:12 p.m.
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Temperatures from last week for tomorrow's EIA report, released at 9:30 am-CDT.

Extreme heat Southwest and points northeast of there. Close to average Eastern half with a slight warm bias in the Northeast.

Should be bullish vs historical average but the market dialed this in already. The number that matters most on Thursday is the one the market is expecting....and will compare the measured/released injection to. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220909.7day.mean.F.gif


By metmike - Sept. 15, 2022, 2:16 p.m.
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  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending September 9, 2022   |  Released: September 15, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: September 22, 2022 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            +77 BCF = Bearish!          

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(09/09/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region09/09/2209/02/22net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East661  635  26  26   728  -9.2  759  -12.9  
Midwest809  776  33  33   871  -7.1  876  -7.6  
Mountain163  159  4  4   193  -15.5  195  -16.4  
Pacific235  238  -3  -3   240  -2.1  275  -14.5  
South Central904  887  17  17   962  -6.0  1,020  -11.4  
   Salt187  182  5  5   216  -13.4  246  -24.0  
   Nonsalt717  705  12  12   746  -3.9  774  -7.4  
Total2,771  2,694  77  77   2,994  -7.4  3,125  -11.3  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,771 Bcf as of Friday, September 9, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 77 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 223 Bcf less than last year at this time and 354 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,125 Bcf. At 2,771 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2022, 2:19 p.m.
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Bearish Storage Injection Adds Downward Pressure on Cascading Natural Gas Futures

 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an injection of 77 Bcf natural gas into storage for the week ended Sept. 9. The result came in above median estimates and added pressure to already slumping Nymex natural gas futures. The build kept inventories below average levels, but analysts on the online energy platform Enelyst said… 


metmike: Like yesterday, when NG soared higher and before that, when it plunged, the temperature/CDD forecast has not changed much this week.

By metmike - Sept. 15, 2022, 3:08 p.m.
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12Z GFS ensemble was +6 CDDs and bullish.

You can see the (lack of) impact it's having on the NGV contract right now which is almost -$9,000/contract.

It's mid-September. The weather is often NOT the price driver that it would be in the key heating and cooling seasons........high residential demand.

By WxFollower - Sept. 16, 2022, 12:58 p.m.
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 The ups earlier in the week and especially the plunge on Thu (the weekly EIA really wasn't that bearish as the WSJ poll had +75 for the mean vs the +77 actual) were apparently largely related to the threat of and then the averting of a RR strike, which would have disrupted the transportation of coal and thus increased demand for NG for electricity generation:

 

Natural Gas Futures Plummet After Negotiators Avert Railway Strike, EIA Prints Bearish Storage Print

BY KEVIN DOBBSSeptember 15, 2022
Natural gas futures snapped a five-day rally and plunged in Thursday trading. The October Nymex gas futures contract fell 79.0 cents day/day and settled at $8.324/MMBtu after officials said a railway strike had been avoided and the latest government inventory report proved bearish.

The sell-off came amid reports Thursday that an agreement had been reached to avert a rail workers strike.

“Disrupted freight rail lines could have snarled supply chains and cost the U.S.  economy an estimated $2 billion per day,” EBW Analytics Group senior  analyst Eli Rubin said. He added that a strike threatened to curtail  coal supplies and boost demand for natural gas, adding fuel to the  recent rally.

“In the energy sector,” Rubin said, “disrupted freight coal transportation  could have further strained precariously low coal inventories, leading  coal operators to conserve scarce supplies, reduce coal generation, and  increase the call on power sector gas demand.”

However, President Biden on Thursday announced a tentative agreement to avert a  walkout, alleviating coal delivery concerns and worries about economic  fallout.

By WxFollower - Sept. 16, 2022, 1:08 p.m.
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 Despite all of the talk about Biden's CC related oil/gas production policies leading to a reduction in domestic production vs potential, NG per NGI has reached record high levels this month:


 "Production early this month reached record levels above 100 Bcf/d, according to Bloomberg estimates, and output continued to hold near that level Thursday."


 My question to Mike and others: Is there something that Biden has done to lead to reduced US NG production? In other words, would it have been even higher than this record? Or is this expected reduction not til the future?

 I recall a discussion Mike and I had about a reduction in a particular type of NG well that Mike had pointed out that might later lead to NG production reductions.

  

NG 9/13/22+
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By metmike - Sept. 16, 2022, 7:04 p.m.
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Larry,

Very glad that you asked.

The cure for high prices........is high prices.

In this case, it took much longer  than usual and the response is muted because the government is throwing money out to big investors in green energy thru subsidies, grants, tax reduction and other schemes that don't apply to fossil fuel investments.


The fake inflation reduction act is a continuation of that but on a ramped up, federal scale.

A decade ago, when prices were this high the rigs searching for natural gas were MUCH higher because big investors and big energy didn't see the writing on the wall for fossil fuels longer term.

These are long term plays, not just what they can capture from high prices at the moment.

This may help a bit:

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/85535/#85659

Highest price for natural gas in 14 years. Every time prices increased, even half this much the rig count jumped higher so that supplies would gush out as the big investors saw incentive to make more money.

The cure for high prices is...............high prices.

Not any more with fossil fuels. The government is suppressing new supplies by disadvantaging new money investments in fossil fuels  to stifle future profits with its war on fossil fuels.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_rotary_rigs


Investment moneys in this business have seen the writing on the wall, long before Biden took over(Obama made it crystal clear). There are other factors at play with regards to production/well too. 


                       https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/e_ertrrg_xr0_nus_cm.htm 



                                    

NG 9/13/22+
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By metmike - Sept. 16, 2022, 7:10 p.m.
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This is also playing a huge role:

Fertilizer/Natural Gas Prices. Energy crisis in Europe because of unreliable fake green/anti environmental energy! August 2022  https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88331/

This is also related:

California tells electric car owners NOT to charge vehicles. Energy crisis in California because of unreliable, fake green/anti environmental energy! September 2022 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88534/   



Re: NG 9/13/22+
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By metmike - Sept. 17, 2022, 11:39 a.m.
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Previous related posts:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/86116/#86128

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/61677/#62033

Added 9-19-22:

NEW: Biden causes natural gas prices to soar higher: Europe's self inflicted energy crisis. Killing US coal. E15 gas this Summer...increasing pollution and food inflation for political marketing. Fossil fuels are the life blood of civilization.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/84844/

By metmike - Sept. 17, 2022, 4:59 p.m.
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By metmike - Sept. 17, 2022, 5:01 p.m.
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Three countries provided almost 70% of liquefied natural gas received in Europe in 2021

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51358

U.S. annual net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels

+++++++++++++++++++++

Europe imported record amounts of liquefied natural gas in 2022

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=52758

Europe monthly imports of liquefied natural gas

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

How much energy does the EU import from Russia?

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/eu-energy-russia-oil-gas-import/

Related discussion/much more details:

                Fertilizer/Natural Gas Prices/Europe crisis            

                            Started by metmike - Aug. 25, 2022, 3:38 p.m.            

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88331/

By metmike - Sept. 19, 2022, 11:53 a.m.
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Bearish Technicals Seen Pressuring Natural Gas Futures as Sell-Off Continues

metmike: CDD's are rarely a huge deal in late September. However, this year, they are 50% higher than average for that time frame. The amount in storage is still near the bottom of the 5 year average and the market wants to see that refilled to a comfortable level before the heat season/Winter begins.

Also, exports pick up soon(end of November?), after the repairs are finished to the damaged export facility in TX. ....this means additional demand of something like 15 BCF/week? This is extremely bullish. That equates to something like an additional 300 BCF of demand/use over the entire heating season/Winter.

Larry may have a better estimate.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3875925-us-natural-gas-plunges-as-freeport-lng-pushes-back-restart-plan


By metmike - Sept. 20, 2022, 12:09 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Fail to Sustain Fresh Momentum

 Coming off a 56.0-cent sell-off to close out last week’s trading, natural gas futures on Monday shrugged off recent bearish developments and reversed course, trading in positive territory most of the day. Still, futures lost momentum late, despite seasonally stout cooling demand forecast for this week, and the October Nymex gas futures contract settled at… 

By metmike - Sept. 20, 2022, 12:10 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Called Slightly Higher as Estimates Show Production Dip

metmike: On CDDs. With time, the current near record heat days on the front end of the forecast with HIGH CDDs, are being replaced by much milder ones at the end of the forecast (early Oct) so the dropping CDDs is a bit deceptive. Regardless, it's delusional to think the market will rally on October heat. Especially since October cold waves, mainly mid/late month have led to some upward price spikes in the past.



By metmike - Sept. 21, 2022, 12:21 p.m.
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As Russia Signals Escalation in War Effort, Natural Gas Futures Rally Early

 Against a backdrop of broader energy market anxieties over a potential escalation in the conflict in Ukraine, natural gas futures rallied in early trading Wednesday. The October Nymex contract was up 23.0 cents to $7.947/MMBtu as of around 8:45 a.m. ET. West Texas Intermediate front month crude oil futures were trading $1.02 higher at $84.96/bbl.… 

metmike: Last week, we were told that Ukraine was winning the war!

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2022, 1:32 p.m.
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7 day temps for last week and this week's EIA were on the bearish side because the places in the south that can be the hottest at this time of year......were actually the coolest.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/temp_analyses.php

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220916.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2022, 1:35 p.m.
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  ‹ See All Natural Gas Reports

https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending September 16, 2022   |  Released: September 22, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: September 29, 2022 

                                                                                                                                                                              +103 BCF that was BIG/BEARISH!                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(09/16/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region09/16/2209/09/22net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East690  661  29  29   748  -7.8  784  -12.0  
Midwest844  809  35  35   900  -6.2  907  -6.9  
Mountain168  163  5  5   196  -14.3  199  -15.6  
Pacific237  235  2  2   240  -1.3  278  -14.7  
South Central935  904  31  31   986  -5.2  1,038  -9.9  
   Salt199  187  12  12   226  -11.9  253  -21.3  
   Nonsalt736  717  19  19   760  -3.2  786  -6.4  
Total2,874  2,771  103  103   3,071  -6.4  3,206  -10.4  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,874 Bcf as of Friday, September 16, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 103 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 197 Bcf less than last year at this time and 332 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,206 Bcf. At 2,874 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 


By metmike - Sept. 22, 2022, 1:39 p.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Hang in the Red as Triple-Digit Storage Injection Eases Supply Concerns

 The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Thursday reported an injection of 103 Bcf into natural gas storage for the week ended Sept. 16. The result exceeded analysts’ expectations and soothed market concerns about ample supplies for the coming winter, keeping pressure on Nymex natural gas futures. The build marked the largest of the year,… 


metmike: The weather is NOT a factor. 15 years ago, a potential hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico would have cause the natural gas market to be on fire. Fracking/shale production on land has replaced much of the GOM production but one can still imagine a scenario of a major hurricane aimed at the WESTERN GOM causing a spike higher. Most of the forecasts now are too far east.


But the last 12z GFS continue to be  farther west than the European model but NOT far enough west to hit energy structures(which would be on the western/weak side of the hurricane anyways). 

I sure wouldn't want to be short any energy markets ahead of a potential major hurricane strike in the W. GOM.

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2022, 2:31 p.m.
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NG spiked down to -$7,000/contract on the day.

By metmike - Sept. 22, 2022, 3:35 p.m.
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It's not too early to be looking for major cold patterns in October that should generate the seasons first significant HDDs and be seen as bullish. 

Nothing there right now.

We actually have a decent shot of late Sept HDDs now and thru the next week or so but not enough to make a difference..........they are offset by a plunge in CDDs.


NG 9/13/22+
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By metmike - Sept. 26, 2022, 4:43 p.m.
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API: European LNG Demand, Role of U.S. Natural Gas Outpaces Previous Estimates

By Jacob Dick

September 26, 2022

https://www.naturalgasintel.com/api-european-lng-demand-role-of-u-s-natural-gas-outpaces-previous-estimates/

That could mean growth in European LNG demand will more than double the 50 Bcm/year outlined in the March joint agreement between the Biden administration and the EU, according to Rystad. Analysts also projected LNG would meet 50% of Europe’s natural gas demand through 2030, before growing to 75% of demand by 2040.

metmike: How can this be? We are being told by Biden that natural gas and coal will be gone by 2030?




Sorry to interject politics into it but they know dang well the fake climate crisis is about crony capitalism using things like  anti environmental fake green wind turbine schemes and political agenda. The press release below is fairy tale hogwash:

FACT SHEET: President Biden Signs Executive Order Catalyzing America’s Clean Energy Economy Through Federal Sustainability

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/12/08/fact-sheet-president-biden-signs-executive-order-catalyzing-americas-clean-energy-economy-through-federal-sustainability/

100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity (CFE) by 2030, at least half of which will be locally supplied clean energy to meet 24/7 demand;

metmike: They are lying to us!

Re: NG 9/13/22+
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By metmike - Sept. 28, 2022, 2:17 a.m.
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October Natural Gas Futures Flounder as Hurricane, Expiry Approach

metmike: Nothing weather-wise affecting ng right now.

CDDs fall and HDDs rise seasonally at this time of year.

They intersect around October 4th based on averages.




By metmike - Sept. 28, 2022, 2:20 a.m.
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Near record heat in the middle of the country last week! Could be a seasonally small-ish injection.

7 day temps last week for the EIA report on Thursday at 9:30am.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/tanal/7day/mean/20220922.7day.mean.F.gif

By metmike - Sept. 28, 2022, 10:49 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Retreat as Hurricane Ian Bears Down on Florida

 As Florida braced for a major hurricane to make landfall, with the storm expected to inflict potentially “catastrophic” damage to the state’s peninsula, natural gas futures retreated in early trading Wednesday. The expiring October Nymex contract was down 8.1 cents to $6.570/MMBtu at around 8:50 a.m. ET. November was off 3.2 cents to $6.728. As… 

By metmike - Sept. 29, 2022, 12:50 a.m.
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October Natural Gas Futures Probe Higher into Expiration as ‘Awful’ Hurricane Strikes, Russia Antagonizes

 Natural gas futures seesawed as a powerful hurricane hammered Florida Wednesday, curbing demand but raising the specter of production interruptions. Market participants also weighed expectations for another stout storage print amid thin trading heading into contract expiration. At A Glance: Analysts look for 90s Bcf storage build Hurricane Ian poses damage wildcard Russian threats ignite


metmike: News from Ukraine is more important than US weather right now.

By metmike - Sept. 29, 2022, 11:15 a.m.
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Natural Gas Futures Slide Early as Ian Leaves Millions without Power

 As traders contemplated severe damage in Florida from Hurricane Ian, natural gas futures declined early Thursday ahead of the latest round of government inventory data. The November Nymex contract was off 16.3 cents to $6.792/MMBtu as of around 8:55 a.m. ET. After carving a devastating path through Florida, causing severe flooding and reportedly leaving millions… 

metmike: November contract is front month today.



By metmike - Sept. 29, 2022, 11:17 a.m.
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https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 for week ending September 23, 2022   |  Released: September 29, 2022 at 10:30 a.m.   |  Next Release: October 6, 2022 

                      +103 BCF = BEARISH!                                                                                

Working gas in underground storage, Lower 48 states Summary text CSV JSN
  Historical Comparisons
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
 Year ago
(09/23/21)
5-year average
(2017-21) 
Region09/23/2209/16/22net changeimplied flow  Bcf% change Bcf% change
East721  690  31  31   775  -7.0  807  -10.7  
Midwest879  844  35  35   930  -5.5  937  -6.2  
Mountain176  168  8  8   200  -12.0  203  -13.3  
Pacific243  237  6  6   243  0.0  283  -14.1  
South Central958  935  23  23   1,010  -5.1  1,052  -8.9  
   Salt204  199  5  5   237  -13.9  257  -20.6  
   Nonsalt754  736  18  18   772  -2.3  795  -5.2  
Total2,977  2,874  103  103   3,157  -5.7  3,283  -9.3  

Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.

Summary

Working gas in storage was 2,977 Bcf as of Friday, September 23, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents  a net increase of 103 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 180 Bcf less than last year at this time and 306 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,283 Bcf. At 2,977 Bcf, total working gas is  within the five-year historical range.

 For information on sampling error in this report, see Estimated Measures of Sampling Variability table below. 

 Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with Five-Year Range 


By metmike - Sept. 29, 2022, 11:20 a.m.
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 https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/natural-gas-storage-386

U.S. Natural Gas Storage

Latest Release   Sep 29, 2022   Actual 103B   Forecast 94B   Previous 103B                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Release DateTimeActualForecastPrevious
Oct 06, 2022 10:30  103B
Sep 29, 2022 10:30103B94B103B
Sep 22, 2022 10:30103B93B77B
Sep 15, 2022 10:3077B73B54B
Sep 08, 2022 10:3054B54B61B
Sep 01, 2022 10:3061B58B60B
Aug 25, 2022 10:3060B58B18B
Aug 18, 2022 10:3018B34B44B
Aug 11, 2022 10:3044B39B41B
Aug 04, 2022 10:3041B29B15B
Jul 28, 2022 10:3015B22B32B
Jul 21, 2022 10:3032B47B58B

Show more

By metmike - Sept. 29, 2022, 11:37 p.m.
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As Hurricane Ian Rages, November Natural Gas Futures Contract Debuts with Whimper  

Natural gas futures fell on Wednesday in the wake of demand destruction imposed by Hurricane Ian and another stout storage injection. The November Nymex gas futures contract, debuting as the prompt month, lost 8.1 cents day/day and settled at $6.874 /MMBtu. December shed 5.8 cents to $7.142. At A Glance: EIA prints 103 Bcf storage… 

By metmike - Oct. 2, 2022, 4:06 p.m.
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Seasonally/historically, on average total US HDDs pass up CDDs this week.

With slight global warming, that date has been delayed by several days in recent decades but I'm not sure if that has been dialed into the products used.

Regardless, its only a minuscule factor.  The absolute HDDs or CDDs matter and  how they compare/deviate from average does too.  The change compared to the old average or instead the last decade average is not going to be massive.

A week with average temperatures in the month of  January, for instance would be close to nuetral for the natural gas market/traders.  

The same temps occurring in November or March would be very bullish because they would gobble up much more natural gas for residential heating  than average for that particular time frame.