KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, September 14, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 258.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 197.8)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.7%)
Refinance Idx (previous 556.4)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -1.1%)
8:30 AM ET. August PPI
PPI, M/M% (previous -0.5%)
Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Personal Consumption (previous -0.7%)
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 427.191M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +8.845M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 214.808M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.333M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 111.801M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.095M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.892M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.181M)
Thursday, September 15, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August Import & Export Price Indexes
Import Prices (previous -1.4%)
Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.7%)
Petroleum Prices (previous -6.8%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 222K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -6K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1473000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +36K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
Corn (Metric Tons)
Soybeans (Metric Tons)
Wheat (Metric Tons)
8:30 AM ET. September Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous 6.2)
Prices Paid (previous 43.6)
Employment (previous 24.1)
New Orders (previous -5.1)
Prices Received (previous 23.3)
Delivery Times (previous 2.7)
Inventories (previous 2.3)
Shipments (previous 24.8)
8:30 AM ET. September Empire State Manufacturing Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -31.3)
Employment Idx (previous 7.4)
New Orders Idx (previous -29.6)
Prices Received (previous 32.7)
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services
Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +0%)
Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
9:15 AM ET. August Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
Industrial Production, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Capacity Utilization % (previous 80.3%)
Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous +0.4)
10:00 AM ET. July Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales
Total Inventories (previous +1.4%)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2694B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +54B)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 16, 2022
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 55.1)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 54.9)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 55.5)
10:00 AM ET. August State Employment and Unemployment
4:00 PM ET. July Treasury International Capital Data
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's huge decline. Overnight tradingsets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,799.16. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 12,987.00 would open the door for additional gains and a possible test of the August 26th high crossing at 13,296.25. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 12,987.00. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 13,296.25. First support is the September 9th low crossing at 11,996.50. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,799.16..
The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidated some of the Tuesday's huge decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Tuesday's decline, the September 9th low crossing at 3900.00 is the next downside target. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 4175.00 would renew the rally off September's low. First resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 4234.26. Second resistance is August's highcrossing at 4345.75. First support is the September 9th low crossing at 3900.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 130-27 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 135-10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 138-13. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 131-04. Second support is June's low crossing at 130-27.
December T-notes was lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 114.060 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.273 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 116.273. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 118.112. First support is the overnight low crossing at 114.215. Second support is June's low crossing at 114.060.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:October crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $75.35 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $89.32. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $91.35. First support is February 18th low crossing at $79.83. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $75.35.
October heating oil was sharply lower overnight breaking out to the downside of the trading range of the past two-weeks to renew the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off August's high, August's low crossing at $3.1167 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $3.7050 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $3.7771. Second resistance is the August 25th high crossing at $4.0392. First support is the overnight low crossing at $3.3341. Second support is August's low crossing at $3.1167.
October unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5564 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.2446 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5564. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.6984. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.2890. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.2446.
October Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.840 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If October renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.133 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.840. Second resistance is the September 1st high crossing at 9.394. First support is the 50% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.685. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.133.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally. The low-range overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.224 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $110.480. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.224. Second support is August's low crossing at $104.150.
The December Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. The overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.02044 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.02044. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1.04650. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $0.98710. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 1.1400 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1704 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1704. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1935. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1407. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.1400.
The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's sharp decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03873 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.06325. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04350. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03873.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $74.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 77.14. Second resistance is the August 18th high crossing at $77.90. First support is September's low crossing at $75.67. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $74.06.
The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.072366 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.072366. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073790. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 0.069485. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at $1696.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1755.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1755.70. Second resistance is the August 10th high crossing at $1824.60. First support is September's low crossing at $1699.10. Second support is July's low crossing at $1696.10.
December silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $21.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $18.563 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $21.020. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $18.563. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.5008 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, August's high crossing at 3.7835 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8291. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.3610. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low due to demand concerns. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.61 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.61 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.27 1/2.
December wheat was steady to fractionally higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.16 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $8.77 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $7.43 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off August's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.51 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average$8.79 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.51. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. First support is the 50-day moving average $8.79 3/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.08 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the July-September trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline of May's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-May rally crossing at $8.29 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.29 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight following Monday's bullish supply-demand and crop production report. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.26 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.26 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average $14.02 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $416.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $440.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $416.80. Second support is September's low crossing at $404.30.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 65.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at 55.53.
Thanks very much tallpine!