INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 21, 2022, 7:49 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, September 21, 2022   

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 255)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.2%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 198.1)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 532.9)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous -4.2%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. August Existing Home Sales

 

                       Existing Sales (expected 4.68M; previous 4.81M)

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -2.7%; previous -5.9%)

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.3)

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 403800)

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +10.8%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. SEC Investor Advisory Committee Quarterly Meeting

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 429.633M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.442M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 213.04M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.768M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 116.02M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +4.219M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 91.5%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.313M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.579M)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. Federal Reserve economic projections

 

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022 (previous 3.4%)

 

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2023 (previous 3.8%)

 

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2024 (previous 3.4%)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision

 

                       Federal Funds Rate

 

                       Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)

 

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.50)

 

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 2.25)

 

                       FOMC Vote For Action (previous 12_

 

                       FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)

 

                       Discount Rate (previous 2.50)

 

                       Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.75)

 

                       Discount Rate-Range High

 

                       Discount Rate-Range Low

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,365.25 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,203.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,365.25. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,799.16. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 11,474.02.



The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3998.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3963.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3998.19. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3828.16. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 3744.72.



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the December-2013 low crossing at 127-23 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 133-14 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 131-19. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 133-14. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 129-06. Second support is the December-2013 low crossing at 127-23.



December T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally crossing at 111.233 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.274 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115.274. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.308. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 113.205. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally crossing at 111.233. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:November crude oil was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.64. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $89.49. First support is February 18th low crossing at $79.31. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38.



November heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4549 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, April's low crossing at $2.9170 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4549. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.5137. First support is Monday's low crossing at $3.0925. Second support is the April 7th low crossing at 2.9170.



November unleaded gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5639 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4366. Second resistance is the 50-day moving averagecrossing at $2.5639. First support is the September 8th low crossing at $2.2487. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346.



November Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.584 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November resumes the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.211. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 9.292. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 10.040. First support is the 62% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 7.211. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.603.     



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it has renewed this year's rally. The high-range overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.493 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $110.630. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $107.493. Second support is August's low crossing at $104.150.



The December Euro was lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $1.02650 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1.02650. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1.04650. First support is the September 6th low crossing at $0.99350. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.



The December British Pound was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-week's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, monthly support support crossing at 1.1100 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1759 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1877. First support is the overnight low crossing at 1.1327. Second support is monthly support crossing at 1.1100.



The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04145 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.06325. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04145. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.02210. 

 

The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $74.06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.11. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $76.96. First support is the overnight low crossing at $74.67. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $74.06.



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071437 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071437. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073399. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 0.069485. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1748.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1718.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1748.10. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1661.90. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.



December silver was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $21.020 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.819 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $21.020. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $18.819. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.  



December copper was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 3.4285 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off the September 6th low, August's high crossing at 3.7835 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 3.8291. First support is the September 6th low crossing at 3.3610. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $6.67 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $6.67 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.35 1/2. 



December wheat was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's upside breakout of the July-September trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.13 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.19 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4.    



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average $8.83 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average $8.83 3/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.08 1/2.



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends Tuesday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would mark an upside breakout of the July-September trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $9.06 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the August 18th low crossing at $8.61 3/4. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the January-May high crossing at $8.29 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



November soybeans were higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November renews the rally off the September 8th low, the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.39 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average $14.11 3/4.

 

December soybean meal was lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $417.50 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $442.70. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $417.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $411.90.  



December soybean oil was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the September 8th low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 63.56 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is the September 8th low crossing at 61.24. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.     

 

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 21, 2022, 10:42 a.m.
Like Reply

Thank you tallpine!