KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, September 27, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous +0%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous +1.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.7%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +10.9%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +10.5%)
9:00 AM ET. July U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +17.4%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +18.6%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +18%)
10:00 AM ET. September Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey
Mfg Idx (previous -8)
Shipments Idx (previous -8)
10:00 AM ET. September Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 103.2)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx (previous 145.4)
10:00 AM ET. August New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 511K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous -12.6%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 10.9)
1:00 PM ET. August Money Stock Measures
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)
Wednesday, September 28, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 264.7)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous +3.8%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 200.1)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous +1.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 588.1)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +10.4%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter U.S. International Investment Position
8:30 AM ET. August Advance Economic Indicators Report
10:00 AM ET. August Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 89.8)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -1.0%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -19.9%)
10:00 AM ET. August Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 430.774M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.141M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 214.61M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.57M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 117.25M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +1.23M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 18.938M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.375M)
Thursday, September 29, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims
Jobless Claims, Net Chg
Continuing Claims
Continuing Claims, Net Chg
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter 3rd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous -0.6%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +8.9%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous +10.4%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.1%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +8.4%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Ex-Food/Energy, Q/Q% (previous +4.4%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +1.5%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Revised Corporate Profits
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, September 30, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
9:45 AM ET. Sept. Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 52.2)
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter GDP by State
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 58.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 58.0)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.8%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 58.6)
3:00 PM ET. August Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
N/A U.S. fiscal year ends
N/A Latest deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, June's low crossing at 11,135.00. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,066.02 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,755.02. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,066.02. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 11,229.00. Second support is June's low crossing at 11,135.00.
The December S&P 500 was higher in late-overnight trading as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3912.47 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3823.43. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3930.04. First support is June's low crossing at 3657.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off August's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 129-20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 131-21. First support is Monday's low crossing at 125-24. Second support is monthly support crossing at 118-21.
December T-notes was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.256 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 113.170. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.256. First support is Monday's low crossing at 111.005. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:November crude oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of its recent losses. However, growing fears of a recession and lower demand continues to weigh on the market. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $84.55 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $82.63. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $84.55. First support is Monday's low crossing at $76.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38.
November heating oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.7293 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4307 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4307. Second resistance is the September 6th high crossing at $3.6996. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.0693. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.7293.
November unleaded gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5382 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5382. Second resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $2.7173. First support is the September 8th low crossing at $2.2487. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346.
November Henry natural gas was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.598. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.117 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.712. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.117. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.598. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.048.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this year's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.069 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $114.445. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $110.976. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.069.
The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99977 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99977. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01467. First support is Monday's low crossing at $0.96095. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the blood bath of the previous two trading sessions. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1408 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1408. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 1.1759. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0392. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.0000.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04792 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03695. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04793. First support is May's low crossing at 1.01135. Second support is the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235.
The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the sharp decline off September's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.39 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $74.53. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $75.39. First support is Monday's low crossing at $72.43. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.073150. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.069150. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this year's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1697.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1697.60. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1741.70. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1627.70. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-week's high but remains below broken support marked by the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.819. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's decline, September's low crossing at 17.400 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $21.020 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at $20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $21.020. First support is Monday's low crossing at $18.310. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was steady to higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1355 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5218 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 3.6925. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3.2740. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that lower prices are possible near-term. Monday's close below the September 16th low crossing at $6.67 1/2 signals that a double top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the September 16th low crossing at $6.67 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.41.
December wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.13 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.53. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.24 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight due to short covering. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average $9.23 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.10 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average $9.23 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.90 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last- Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Multiple closes above the July 20th high crossing at $9.67 would mark an upside breakout of the July-September trading range while opening the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the July 20th high crossing at $9.67. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the September 7th low crossing at $8.80. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $8.61 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.17 1/4 would open the door for a possible test of the September 8th low crossing at $13.73. If November renews the rally off the September 8th low, the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $14.08 1/4. Second support is the September 8th low crossing at $13.73.
December soybean meal was steady to higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $413.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $427.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the rally off September's low, monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $443.80. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $457.20. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $413.90. Second support is the September 9th low crossing at $404.40.
December soybean oil was higher overnight as it extends the August-September trading range. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends Monday's decline, the September 8th low crossing at 61.24 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off the September 8th low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is the September 8th low crossing at 61.24. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.
Thanks much tallpine!
Ian is threatening OJ country, so that market is up sharply this morning!