KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Friday, September 30, 2022
8:30 AM ET. August Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.6%)
9:45 AM ET. Sept. Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (previous 52.2)
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter State Quarterly Personal Income
10:00 AM ET. 2nd Quarter GDP by State
10:00 AM ET. September University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 58.2)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 58.0)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.8%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 58.6)
3:00 PM ET. August Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
N/A U.S. fiscal year ends
N/A Latest deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt shutdown
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 10,896.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,903.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,528.23. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,903.08. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 11,091.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at 10,896.70.
The December S&P 500 was slightly higher in late-overnight trading. The stage is set for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3864.45 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3746.12. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3864.45. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3613.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-12 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128-07. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-12. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 123-30. Second support is monthly support crossing at 118-21.
December T-notes was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.048 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.259. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.048. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 110.190. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:November crude oil was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of its recent losses. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.52. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.84. First support is Monday's low crossing at $76.25. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38.
November heating oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4233 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.7293 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4233. Second resistance is the September 6th high crossing at $3.6996. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.0693. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.7293.
November unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight but sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5215 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5215. Second resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $2.7173. First support is the September 8th low crossing at $2.2487. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346.
November Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.048 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.755 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.216. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.755. First support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.598. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.048.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight following a two-day decline off Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.595 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target.First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $114.745. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $111.903. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.595.
The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99580 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, monthly support crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99579. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.01165. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $0.95920. Second support is monthly support crossing at $0.93211.
The December British Pound was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1313 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1313. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1734. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0392. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.0000.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03635 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03635. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04700. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.01105. Second support is the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.93 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $73.75. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.93. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $72.30. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.072933. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.069150. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1689.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1689.10. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1738.10. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1622.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the September 12th high crossing at $20.005 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off last-week's high, September's low crossing at 17.400 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at $20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $21.020. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $17.895. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off August's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5260 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1355 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5260. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 3.6925. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3.2430. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.46 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the September 6th low crossing at $6.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.46.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.14 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.66. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.28 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average $9.35 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average $9.35 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.96 3/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $8.80.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, the September 8th low crossing at $13.73 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.33 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.33 3/4. Second resistance is the September 21st high crossing at $14.88 3/4. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $13.90 3/4. Second support is the September 8th low crossing at $13.73.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Thursday's high, the September 9th low crossing at $404.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $422.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $422.00. Second resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $443.80. First support is the overnight low crossing at $406.50. Second support is the September 7th low crossing at $404.40.
December soybean oil was lower overnight while it extends the August-September trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.44 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the decline off September's high, the August 4th low crossing at 60.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 68.00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 60.75. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.
Thanks tallpine!
USDA out was bullish corn(neutral wheat), bearish beans.