INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Sept. 30, 2022, 4:25 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, October 3, 2022 



9:45 AM ET. September US Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 51.5)



10:00 AM ET. September ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI

                       Manufacturing PMI (previous 52.8)

                       Prices Idx (previous 52.5)

                       Employment Idx (previous 54.2)

                       Inventories (previous 53.1)

                       New Orders Idx (previous 51.3)

                       Production Idx (previous 50.4)



10:00 AM ET. August Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

                       New Construction (previous -0.4%)

                       Residential Construction



11:00 AM ET. September Global Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 50.3)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow closed sharply lower on Friday as it extended the decline off August's high to end the third quarter on a low note. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 27,953.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 30,611.94 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 29,786.62. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 30,611.94. First support is today's low crossing at 28,949.55. Second support is monthly support crossing at 27,953.65.



The December NASDAQ 100 close lower on Friday. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 10,896.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,898.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,520.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,898.80. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 11,091.50. Second support is monthly support crossing at 10,896.70.



The December S&P 500 closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3862.62 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3742.55. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3862.62. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 3613.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 3491.65.     



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed down 24-pts. at 126-10. 



December T-bonds closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 128-04. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 130-11. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 123-30. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 118-21.



December T-notes closed down 200-pts. at 111.260.



December T-notes closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.042 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews  the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 114.042. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.106. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 110.190. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 crossing at 105.157.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



November crude oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $83.43 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $74.38 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 83.43. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.81. First support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $74.38. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 65.20.



November heating oil closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4228 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November extends renews decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 2.7293 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4228. Second resistance is the September 6th high crossing at 3.6996. First support is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.0693. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at 3.7293.



November unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November renews the decline off June's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5212 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5212. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $2.7173. First support is the September low crossing at 2.2487. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $2.1346.



November Henry natural gas closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.048 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.749 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 7.203. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.479. First support is the 75% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 6.598. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 6.048.      



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off Wednesday high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.579 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $114.745. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.579. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.309.   



The December Euro closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99597 is needed to confirm that a low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.99597. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.01173. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $0.95920. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211. 



The December British Pound closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1318 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, psychological support crossing at 1.0000 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1318. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1736. First support is Monday's low crossing at 1.0392. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.0000.   

 

The December Swiss Franc closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03608 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off September's high, the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04689. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.06325. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 1.01105. Second support is the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target.  



The December Canadian Dollar closed lower on Friday as it extended this year's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 72.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.91 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 73.71. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.91. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 72.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 70.42.



The December Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 0.071895. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.72931. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.069150. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1693.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1693.80. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1738.10. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $1622.20. Second support is monthly support crossing at $1610.30.



December silver close higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the September 1st high crossing at 17.320 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, the September 1st low crossing at 17.320 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at 20.005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 21.020. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at 17.895. Second support is the September 1st low crossing at 17.320. 



December copper closed slightly lower on Friday.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5254 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1315 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5254 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.6925. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. First support Wednesday's low crossing at 3.2430. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1315.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up $0.08-cents at $6.77 1/2. 



December corn closed higher on Friday following a friendly quarterly grain stocks report. Profit taking ahead of the weekend tempered early-session gains and the low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at $6.61 1/2 would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.46 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $7.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $6.61 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.46 1/4. 



December wheat closed up $0.25 1/4-cents at $9.21 1/2.  



December wheat closed higher on Friday as it renewed the rally off August's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $9.45 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.49 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.66 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.29. 



December Kansas City Wheat closed up $0.24 3/4-cents at $9.91 1/2.



December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off August's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.36 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.36 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.97.



December Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.16-cents at $9.82.



December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.66 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.20 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.66 1/2. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $8.80.  

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans closed down $0.46-cents at $13.64 3/4.



November soybeans closed sharply lower on Friday following today's bearish quarterly grain stocks report that showed that carryout was 274 million bushels compared to the average trade guess of 242 million bushels. Today's sharp decline and low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at $13.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.30 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.12. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.47 3/4. First support is today's low crossing at $13.63 1/4. Second support is the August's low crossing at $13.56.  



December soybean meal closed down $4.20 at $403.00. 



December soybean meal closed lower on Friday as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the August 16th low crossing at $395.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $421.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $421.40. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $443.80. First support is today's low crossing at $402.40. Second support the August's low crossing at $395.60.    



December soybean oil closed down 230-pts. at 61.56. 



December soybean oil closed sharply lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, August's low crossing at 60.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the August 12th high crossing at 68.16. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 69.82. First support is August's low crossing at 60.20. Second support is the July 22nd low crossing at 55.53. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $.68 at $76.40. 



December hogs closed higher on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $73.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.99 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $82.99. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $85.24. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $75.33. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $73.31.  



December cattle closed down $0.78 at $147.00. 



December cattle closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $144.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $149.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $149.60. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $152.23. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $145.92. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $144.56.



November Feeder cattle closed down $3.13 at $174.70. 



November Feeder cattle closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $173.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $181.48 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $178.26. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $181.48. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $174.23. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $173.53.     



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's high, August's high crossing at $24.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $23.21. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $24.30. First support is September's low crossing at $21.09. Second support is the August 19th low crossing at $20.95.                   



December cocoa closed higher on Friday as it extends the rally off Monday's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.69 would open the door for additional gains into early-October. If December renews the decline off August's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 19.46 is the next downside target.    



March sugar closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March extends this summer's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 17.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 13th high crossing at 18.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.      



December cotton closed slightly higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 82.54 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 97.06 would signal that a low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Sept. 30, 2022, 7:06 p.m.
Like Reply

Thank you very much tallpine!


Wheat (HRW) could turn into a big weather market if the forecast for a dry October continues!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83848


Wheat planting, early development conditions

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88925/


See the other threads for updated grain posts


USDA-bearish beans, bullish corn

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89207/


Crop conditions

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89208/


Exports

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89205/


Natural gas

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88807/