grain comments
5 responses | 0 likes
Started by bcb - Oct. 3, 2022, 12:26 p.m.

Quarterly Stocks (Friday 9-30)

Corn 1,377                    Trade est 1,497
Beans 274                            247
Wheat 1,776                         1,795

US Production 2022-2023
All Wheat 1,650                    1.795

Watch this week
Russian annexation
Currencies / US Dollar
Brazil planting
Arg. dryness possible less Corn and Wheat acres / more beans then
Harvest and yield reports

IMHO sell off combine beans and store corn.
BUT if your booking fertilizer sell corn to pay for it.
You can always re own if need be.

Prices the first week of Oct last yr (2021)
Crude Oil 7587                        US Dollar 7587
Corn 541.50                             Beans 1246.50
Wheat 755.25
Cattle 125.20                           Hogs 85.17

Dec. Corn and March Corn triple tops
Nov beans close to closing gap 1358.25-1349.25
Remember we have the most expensive priced Corn in the World

By metmike - Oct. 3, 2022, 1:41 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much bcb!

That covers most of the key factors for grains for us to be watching.

I'll add to that awesome list,  the US drought and Winter wheat crop.

By wglassfo - Oct. 4, 2022, 1:57 a.m.
Like Reply

I was asked if I planned on planting some winter wheat, this fall

My answer:    NO

We don't have the soils that produce top yields of winter wheat plus winter kill is always a danger to whole field avg yields

Even with wheat prices such as they are I can net more/acre growing corn on our soils, with contract corn prices for 2023 summer delivery from our bins an attractive proposition

Having said all this I expect my area of SW Ontario will increase winter plantings of wheat, just not on our farms

We are too busy chasing away the folks that want to erect wind towers on our land

Seems if they can be believed theey have leased enough land to make a wind tower system, as good as done in our area

All that all that remains to be done is to complete the required gov't project approval, which they seem to be confident will happen

At least they are spending huge amounts to lease land for 5 yrs with money up front

That is a large amount with 1000's of acres leased and paid up front They don't know we have a map of the lands they wish to lease, and by golly we have a lot of acres right smack dab in the middle of what they wish to lease

Got a phone call today asking what my price might be

Seems like money is not a limiting factor, must grow on trees for these folks

By cutworm - Oct. 4, 2022, 9:16 p.m.
Like Reply

thanks bcb

By becker - Oct. 7, 2022, 10:48 a.m.
Like Reply
By metmike - Oct. 7, 2022, 11:30 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks becker.

This is a huge deal that I was not following!

The drought is being caused by the cool water anomalies in the tropical Pacific, the La Nina which has caused the 8 year global warming pause. The best thing to bust it would be global warming resuming with a planet warming El Nino!

Map of SST anomalies


Soilmoisture anomaly:

These maps sometimes take a day to catch up to incorporate the latest data(the bottom map is only updated once a week).


Daily Soil Moisture Pecentile       

        Daily Anomaly Soil Moisture (mm)

        Monthly Soil Moisture Change


October 4, 2022 Below

Drought worsening!!

Drought Monitor for conus


Drought is worse in the WCB compared to 3 weeks earlier

Drought Monitor for conus

July 26, 2022-update

       U.S. Drought Monitor

Drought Monitor for conus



The drought monitor can sometimes be a lagging indicator, but the trend is backed up here by the monthly precip anomalies. That same problem area mentioned above has gotten well below normal rainfall this month. In fact, almost none of the Corn Belt has been distinctly wet.


         Drought monitor previous years:


7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126