KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, October 6, 2022
7:30 AM ET. September Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous -21%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 193K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -16K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1347000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous -29K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2977B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +103B)
12:00 PM ET. September Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, October 7, 2022
8:30 AM ET. IMF releases Chapter 2 of the Global Financial Stability Report
8:30 AM ET. September U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (previous +315K)
Unemployment Rate (previous 3.7%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.36)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (previous +0.31%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +5.20%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous -0.1)
Government Payrolls (previous +7K)
Private Payroll (previous +308K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.4%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
10:00 AM ET. August Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
3:00 PM ET. August Consumer Credit
Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +23.8B)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,746.60 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 10,027.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,746.60. Second resistance is the September 21st high crossing at 12,140.50. First support is Monday's low crossing at 10,890.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at 10,027.00.
The December S&P 500 was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3819.64 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3819.64. Second resistance is the September 20th high crossing at 3936.25. First support is Monday's low crossing at 3571.75. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 3491.65.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-04 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 118-21 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-04. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 134-29. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 123-30. Second support is monthly support crossing at 118-21.
December T-notes was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.153 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.153. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 116.172. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 110.190. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:November crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the June-August downtrend line crossing near $89.30 would signal a likely trend change from down to sideways to higher. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $82.21 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.37. Second resistance is the June-August downtrend line crossing near $89.30. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $82.21. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $76.25. Third support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $74.38.
November heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off last-Monday's low, August's high crossing at 3.9641 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.3388 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $3.7246. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $3.9641. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.3388. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $3.0693.
November unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off September's low, the August 11th high crossing at $2.7173 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4420 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the August 11th high crossing at $2.7173. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $2.8440. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4420. Second support is the September 8th low crossing at $2.2487.
November Henry natural gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.459 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.048 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 7.459. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 8.222. First support is the 87% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 6.048. Second support is July's low crossing at 5.465.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high,the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.693 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, monthly resistance crossing at $114.782 is the next upside target.First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $114.745. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $108.693. Second support is September's low crossing at $107.450.
The December Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.00900 would open the door for a possible test of September's high crossing at $1.02650. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $0.98376 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.00900. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1.02650. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $0.98379. Second support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $0.95920.
The December British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Monday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1678 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1090 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1678. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.1759. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.1090. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.0392.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03464 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.03464. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04461. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.01105. Second support is the June low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.00235.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.38 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.38. Second resistance is the September 20th high crossing at $75.62. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $72.27. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14.
The December Japanese Yen was slightly lower overnight as it extends September's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. Closes above the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.072574. First support is the September 22nd low crossing at 0.069150. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was steady to slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1736.50 would open the door for a larger-degree rebound during the first half of October. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $1681.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1736.50. Second resistance is the August 25th high crossing at $1778.80. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $1622.20. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.459 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at 17.400. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $21.248. Second resistance is 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $17.895. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5327 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1355 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5327. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 3.6925. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.2430. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was lower overnight as it extends the September-October trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low would open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.52 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at $6.99 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the September 6th low crossing at $6.59. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.53 3/4.
December wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.82 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.50 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.15. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.82 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.37 1/4.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off August's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average $9.56 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.10. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the 20-day moving average $9.56 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.07 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was steady to lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.53 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December extends the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.53 1/2. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.25 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at $13.56 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.25 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.25 1/4. Second resistance is the September 21st high crossing at $14.88 3/4. First support is August's low crossing at $13.56. Second support is July's low crossing at $12.88 1/2.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, August's low crossing at $395.50 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.90 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $414.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $417.90. First support is Wednesday's low crossing at $396.50. Second support is August's low crossing at $395.50.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidated some of this week's rally while extending the August-October trading range. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the September 21st high crossing at 66.82 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, the August 4th low crossing at 60.20 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 21st high crossing at 66.82. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 68.00. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 60.75. Second support is the August 4th low crossing at 60.20.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
December hogs closed up $2.13 at $76.55.
December hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $70.41 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.93 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $79.15. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $81.93. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $73.31. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2021-2022 rally crossing at $70.41.
December cattle closed up $0.38 at $147.88.
December cattle closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $149.21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $144.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $149.21. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $152.23. First support is the 62% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $145.92. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the May-September rally crossing at $144.56.
November Feeder cattle closed up $2.10 at $177.30.
November Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extended the trading range of the past six-days. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If November extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $173.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $179.96 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $179.96. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $184.15. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $174.23. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the May-August rally crossing at $173.53.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed sharply higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's high, August's high crossing at $24.30 is the next upside target. If December renews Monday's decline, September's low crossing at 21.09 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $23.21. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $24.30. First support is September's low crossing at $21.09. Second support is the August 19th low crossing at $20.95.
December cocoa closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at 24.69 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, weekly support on the continuation chart crossing at 19.46 is the next downside target.
March sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the September 13th high crossing at 18.18 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews this summer's decline, the 38% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 17.11 is the next downside target.
December cotton closed sharply lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 80.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 94.42 would signal that a low has been posted.
Thanks tallpine!
HRW country in S.Plains has the chance for needed rain that actually looks less here on Thursday, despite wheat being down.
NG expected to have huge injection again.
Cold is bullish for HO, which yesterday saw a 3+ MB drawdown and has the lowest amount in storage for the end of September in history. 1996 had a tad more and is now the 2nd lowest. OPEC cuts too.
Exports were pretty bad
Strong DX is hurting exports