Weather Sunday
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Started by metmike - July 29, 2018, 9:53 a.m.

Very Happy July 29th!


 Scroll down and really enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.


Rains in different places at different times......but not everywhere. 

When you add it all up, it amounts to decent rain for this time of year in around half of the belt..........but definately not as much as  yesterday's forecast!


 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

   




7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

Comments
By metmike - July 29, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat Central/Southern Plains and points east....shifting southeast, then shifting  northeast early next week.............see the maps below:



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 9:58 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen. Today: Highest threat Central High Plains today.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:01 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Monday....... feels like Fall in the N/C.Plains/Midwest. Hot deep South/Gulf Coast. Heating up a bit far S.Plains today.

Blast furnace in the Southwest..........even Pacific Northwest feels the heat(records)!!!

                    

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:03 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Very Comfortable air N/C Plains/ Midwest to East Coast!


Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:04 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5TqIdff_DQ

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:07 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Magnificent start Central Plains to Midwest......gradually heating back up during this period.


Still hot West .........but cooling along the coasts!!!!!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:10 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We have now past the the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

Starting below average but ending above average =average in the Plains to Midwest.

Heat in the West shifts a bit east.


High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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Cool Canadian high pressure Plains to Midwest to East Coast. Warm front S.Plains setting off t-shwrs there to S.Midwest.


https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:12 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image:



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:13 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


US Infrared Satellite Map

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:14 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.     S.Plains to Arkansas......very welcome rains.


By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
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Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(this is why they were/are singing in the rains there).

Recent drying has extended into S.IA/IL/IN/OH. Watching to see how much of that area gets upcoming rains..........IA could miss.

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:17 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"


By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.

See how dry it's been in the Central Cornbelt for over a week and some negative departures for 14 and 30 days over the southern and eastern belt.:

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By bcb - July 29, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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Central IL. possible flooding today

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:19 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


                             

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:27 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:  Cool in N/C Plains and Midwest.............. heat  backed up West.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Heat West moves east to Plains.  Below average temperatures shift to Southeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Hot West. Heat spills across the entire country? Temps uncertain in East.
NCEP Ensemble t = 240 hour forecast product


Day 15  Hot West.............Heat IS moving around. Temps uncertain in the East

.NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:31 a.m.
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Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles.  Still..........The same question of the last 12 days for this period. How deep will the upper level trough in the Northeast be  in week 2? Will this mark a pattern change?

Will the strong upper level ridge in Western Atlantic backing up towards East Coast merge/bridge with the heat ridge from the Southwest/S.Plains eastward?  Will this nudge the trough northward?

Around half of the members have this idea.


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:37 a.m.
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You want uncertainty late week 2?  I'll give you uncertainty.

The last 6Z operational GFS model shows a huge heat ridge late in week 2 with near record heat for the eastern half of the country but the previous 0z run, shown at the bottom showed the complete opposite..........an upper level trough and strong cooling about to hit. 


              

      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif


      Previous GFS below

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - July 29, 2018, 10:40 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4............looks drastically different again today.

This is what I stated yesterday:

"Early/mid last week it looked hot............then turned very cool, especially yesterday(and dry yesterday)........now its looking warmer and wet."

On Sunday, it looks cooler in the Plains to Midwest(heat back out West) and Wet in the Plains to Midwest.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By WxFollower - July 29, 2018, 11:26 a.m.
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 Good points, Mike, about the often big jumps from day to day on the CFS weeks 3-4 and from just one run to the next on the operational GFS 360 hour maps. That along with various model biases that intensify fruther out in forecast time are reasons why we both know that they’re so unreliable/pretty low skill and significant changes on these don’t normally influence the markets nearly as much as significant changes on the operational/ensemble means through early week 2 and the ensemble means late in week 2 though admittedly for awhile the CFS had been somewhat consistent from one run to the next on cooling in the Midwest/Plains vs earlier heat in these areas.

 By the way, I’m seeing some hints on the more reliable model consensus that there may finally be a change back to warmer in the Midwest and NE in week 2.

By metmike - July 29, 2018, 1:26 p.m.
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Agree Larry,

The last 12Z GFS operational model looks pretty warm......and not as wet as some previous solutions.


      

gfs_namer_348_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_348_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_348_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_348_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_348_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_348_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_348_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_348_850_temp_ht_s.gif



Total Rains thru 348 hours.


gfs_namer_348_precip_ptot.gif