INO Evening Market Comments
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Started by tallpine - Oct. 21, 2022, 5:10 p.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:



Monday, October 24, 2022   



0830/1230  September CFNAI Chicago Fed National Activity Index

                       NAI (previous 0.00)

                       NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous 0.01)

0945/1345  October US Flash Manufacturing PMI

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 51.8)

0945/1345  October US Flash Services PMI

                       PMI, Services (previous 49.2)



Tuesday, October 25, 2022 



8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

9:00 AM ET. August U.S. Monthly House Price Index

9:00 AM ET. August S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +14.9%)

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous -0.8%)

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +16.1%)

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous -0.3%)

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +15.8%)

10:00 AM ET. October Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

                       Mfg Idx (previous 0)

                       Shipments Idx (previous 14)

10:00 AM ET. October Consumer Confidence Index

                       Cons Conf Idx (previous 108)

                       Expectation Idx

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 149.6)

1:00 PM ET. September Money Stock Measures

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes



The Dow posted a key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Friday to extend the rally off the October 13th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off the October 13th low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,122.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 29,754.98 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 31,122.69. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 31,467.05. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 29,754.98. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 28,660.94. 



The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Friday ending a two-day correction off Tuesday's high. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 11,431.75 would renew the rally off last-Thursday's low. If December renews the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 10,027.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 11,431.75. Second resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 11,729.75. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 10,484.75. Second support is monthly support crossing at 10,027.00.



The December S&P 500 posted a key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 5th high crossing at 3820.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 3491.65 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 5th high crossing at 3820.00. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3902.74. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3502.00. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 3491.65.    



INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""



December T-bonds closed down 1-12-pts. at 119-02. 



December T-bonds closed lower for the third day in a row on Friday as it extends the decline off August's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114-06 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-29 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-29. Second resistance is the October 4th high crossing at 129-12. First support is today's low crossing at 118-06. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 114-06.



December T-notes closed up 140-pts. at 109.255.



December T-notes closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.133 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.133. Second resistance is the October 4th high crossing at 113.055. First support is today's low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 crossing at 105.157.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



December crude oil closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $81.30 would renew the decline off October's high. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $88.52 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $88.52. Second resistance is the October 10th high crossing at $92.34. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $81.30. Second support is September's low crossing at $75.70. 



December heating oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4523 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $3.8939 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $3.8315. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $3.8939. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4523. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October rally crossing at $3.3997.



December unleaded gas closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Tuesday's low crossing at $2.3528 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the July 29th high crossing at $2.7536 is the next upside target. First resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $2.7536. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at 2.7590. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at 2.3526. Second support is the September low crossing at 2.1877.



December Henry natural gas closed lower for the sixth day in a row on Friday as it extended the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 4.382 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Thursday's high crossing at 7.127 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 7.127. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.983. First support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 5.393. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 4.382.      



CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""



The December Dollar posted a key reversal down on Friday after failing to clear resistance marked by last-Thursday's high crossing at 113.85. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's  key reversal down, the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.289 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off October's low, the September 28th high crossing at $114.745 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 28th high crossing at $114.745. Second resistance is monthly resistancecrossing at $114.782. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.289. Second support is September's low crossing at $108.980.   



The December Euro posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $0.99768 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted while opening the door for a possible test of September's high crossing at 1.02650. If December renews this month's decline, September's low crossing at $0.95920 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $1.00545. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.02650. First support is September's low crossing at $0.95920. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2000-2008 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $0.93211. 



The December British Pound closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1458 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at 1.0392 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1458. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 1.1759. First support is September's low crossing at 1.0392. Second support is psychological support crossing at 1.0000.  

 

The December Swiss Franc posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of this year's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and poised to turn neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01394 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01394. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03270. First support is today's low crossing at 0.99125. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target.  



The December Canadian Dollar posted a key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.87 signals that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 70.42 is the next downside target. First resistance the October 4th high crossing at 74.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 74.92. Second resistance is the October 4th high crossing at 74.09. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 72.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 70.42.



The December Japanese Yen posted a huge key reversal up as it closed sharply higher on Friday ending a twelve-day decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068889 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068889. Second resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895. First support is today's low crossing at 0.066235. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.  



PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""



December gold closed higher on Friday as it posted a key reversal up signaled that a double bottom with September's low might have been posted with today's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, monthly support crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1673.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1708.20. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $1738.70. First support is today's low crossing at $1621.10. Second support is monthly support crossing at $1610.30.



December silver closed higher on Friday as it consolidates some of the decline off September's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.262 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off September's high, the September 28th low crossing at 17.895 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off today's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 21.248 is the next upside target.First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 21.248. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 22.448. First support is the September 28th low crossing at 17.895. Second support is September's low crossing at 17.400. 



December copper closed higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4972 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 3.6925 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, July's low crossing at 3.1315 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 3.6925. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. First support September's low crossing at 3.2430. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1315.



GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



December Corn closed up $0.1/4-cents at $6.84 1/4. 



December corn closed fractionally higher on Friday as it extends the trading range of the past three-days. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the decline off October's high continues, the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/2 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $7.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.70 1/2. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $6.61 1/2. 



December wheat closed up $0.01 1/2-cents at $8.50 3/4.  



December wheat closed higher on Friday as it extends this week's trading range. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the September 19th low crossing at $8.19 1/4 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.50 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.15. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.19 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4.



December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.01 1/2-cents at $9.48 1/4.



December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday as it tested the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.28 1/2. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.28 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.93 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.93 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.28 1/2. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.



December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.01-cents at $9.61 1/2.



December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are  neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.38 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.66 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.66 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.38. Second support is the September 6th low crossing at $9.06 1/2.  

       

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



January soybeans closed up $0.04 1/2-cents at $14.04 1/2.



January soybeans closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.20 3/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off September's high, July's low crossing at $12.97 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.20 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $14.42 1/4. First support is the October 6th low crossing at $13.62 1/4. Second support is the July's low crossing at $12.97.  



December soybean meal closed up $4.60 at $417.90. 



December soybean meal closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $424.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $407.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $417.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $424.00. First support is October's low crossing at $392.00. Second support the July 22th low crossing at $380.80.    



December soybean oil closed up 103-pts. at 71.45. 



December soybean oil closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 73.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 65.65 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 73.14. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 76.14. First support is the October 10th low crossing at 64.05. Second support is the June 28th low crossing at 60.75. 

 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



December hogs closed up $2.13 at $89.15. 



December hogs closed sharply higher on Friday as it extended the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $91.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $83.77 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $89.80. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $91.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $83.77. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $80.23. 



December cattle closed up $0.73 at $152.40. 



December cattle closed higher on Friday and posted a new contract high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $152.50. Second resistance is the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $149.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $148.44. 



November Feeder cattle closed up $0.63 at $178.18. 



November Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $181.58 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $176.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $179.33 Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $181.58. First support is October's low crossing at $172.10. Second support is May's low crossing at $170.85.    



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



December coffee closed higher on Friday as it consolidated some of the decline off August's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 18.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.14 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $20.09. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $21.14. First support is today's low crossing at $18.62. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 18.29.                   



December cocoa closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling sideways trading is possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 24.69 is the next upside target. Closes below Wednesday's low crossing at 22.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.    



March sugar closed slightly lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 18.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 19.69 is the next upside target.        



December cotton closed higher on Friday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 80.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 84.42 would signal that a low has been posted. 

Comments
By metmike - Oct. 21, 2022, 7:55 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks much tallpine!


Natural gas continued the historical price free fall today!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/88807/