This is the seasonal peak time frame for bean exports.

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@kannbwx

9m

Last week was the first of 22/23 where inspections of U.S. #soybeans were above average for the date.

 75% were to #China. It's just one week so far - optimism may increase if a trend is seen. For the week, soy+#corn insp. (3.36 mmt) were +5% YOY but -6% from 2020.

Corn exports tend to start low and continue higher, peaking in late Spring.

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@kannbwx

7m

#Corn inspections are poor, no way to spin it positively for now. But there's still time since the peak export season isn't until the second half of the MY. 2017/18 (blue line) started poor and was strong later on. Watching if Ukraine export deal is renewed next month.

@kannbwx

Oct 21

This would be 's third consecutive bumper #wheat crop, following a string of three drought-stricken seasons. Australia is a major wheat exporter, shipping around 75% of its yearly crop overseas (when harvest volumes allow).

@kannbwx·

Oct 21

USDA's attache pegs 's #wheat crop at 34 mmt, down from last year's record of 36.3 mmt, though heavy rainfall into harvest may cause quality concerns. Australia has significantly increased grain exports to #China this year, but #barley remains sidelined.

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These are the top 10 countries that produce the most wheat

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/08/top-10-countries-produce-most-wheat/

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https://beef2live.com/story-top-20-largest-wheat-exporters-world-0-206491

@kannbwx

#China imported 18.5 mmt of #corn in the first 9 months of 2022, down 26% from last year.

 #Wheat, #barley and #pork imports are also lower on the year, but #sorghum is higher (more Aussie, USA shipments). 

Jan-Sep #beef imports of 1.94 mmt are up 11.5% YOY.

@kannbwx

Terrible #corn sales last week (lowest for wk since 2012), but #wheat keeps us guessing with an unexpectedly high volume. 

#Soybeans were a bit below average for the week with #China in for 1.1 mmt. #Cotton sales were poor, #pork average.

@kannbwx

Oct 26

#Ukraine's Oct grain exports are now down 9% YOY versus 2% YOY about 10 days ago, but I don't think this necessarily reflects a slowdown. Could be part of it, but analysis I did last week showed Oct 2021 #corn exports were unusually slow - hence skewing YOY comparisons.

@kannbwx

The flow of North American agricultural goods to Asia. Most of these are U.S. #soybeans to #China, but U.S. #corn & #wheat, Canadian #barley, #canola, wheat are also among the mix. One ship is carrying 65kt of Canadian #peas to China.

@kannbwx

#Ukraine keeps its forecast of winter #wheat sowing at 3.8M hectares, down from 6M+ last year (only 4.6M were harvested due to the invasion). Some 79% of the expected 2023 area was sown as of Oct. 25.