https://seekingalpha.com/article/3989751-2016-presidential-election-and-stock-market-cycles
the 3rd year of a presidents term is often a better return than the other years.
is everyone here ready to jump back into the pool ???
seems like every commentator is saying there will be a recession. maybe too many people are on the same side of the boat.
High energy prices will usually do that, bear.
I'm with you on the cycles working in favor of stocks. Also, buying stocks at midterms has been profitable for the following 6 months for 20 midterms in a row (80 years). Pretty good track record as that coincides with bull and bear markets. I would suggest a "logic" behind that. Markets don't like uncertainty. Democrats/Republicans united or split government. What is it going to be? How can one plan? Then, when the results are in, CEOs can plan accordingly and maximize their profits. Or maybe it's all a big coincidence?
As for energy prices. In real terms (inflation adjusted) they are only slightly elevated. Additionally, they used to be 25% of the US GDP (possibly more?). Now, according to a google search, energy is 8% of the economy. So less of a shock. The wage inflation and food inflation and most importantly, inflation expectations are the more troublesome issues currently (IMO).