KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, October 27, 2022
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous -0.6%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +9.0%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +7.3%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +8.5%)
Real Final Sales 1st Est, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +4.7%)
Personal Consumption, Q/Q% (previous +2.0%)
8:30 AM ET. September Advance Report on Durable Goods
Durable Goods-SA, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.9%)
Dur Goods, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Orders: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M%(previous +1.3%)
Shipmnts: Cap Gds, Non-Def, Ex-Air, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 214K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -12K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1385000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +21K)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3342B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +111B)
11:00 AM ET. October Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous 2)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 16)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous 1)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 9)
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, October 28, 2022
8:30 AM ET. September Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.9%)
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (previous +1.3%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +5.1%)
10:00 AM ET. September Pending Home Sales Index
Pending Home Sales (previous 88.4)
Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (previous -2.0%)
Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -24.2%)
10:00 AM ET. October University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 58.6)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 58.0)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 4.7%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.7%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 59.7)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the October 13th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 10,935.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the October 6th high crossing at 11,729.75 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 11,729.75. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,806.65. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 10,935.50. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 10,484.75.
The December S&P 500 was was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the October 13th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3865.39 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below last-Friday's crossing at 3641.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3865.39. Second resistance is the September 20th high crossing at 3936.25. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 3641.50. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 3502.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123-21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123-21. Second resistance is the October 14th high crossing at 125-31. First support is Monday's low crossing at 117-19. Second support is the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06.
December T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.044 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.044. Second resistance is the October 4th high crossing at 113.300. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:December crude oil was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's rally, October's high crossing at $92.34 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the September 30th low crossing at $78.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $92.34. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $95.55. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $81.30. Second support is the September 30th low crossing at $78.36. Third support is September's low crossing at $75.70.
December heating oil was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 3.8939 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4715 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October 10th high crossing at $3.8315. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $3.8939. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4715. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October rally crossing at $3.3997.
December unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, the July 29th high crossing at $2.7536 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $2.3526 would confirm that a double top with the October 10th high has been posted. First resistance is the October 10th high crossing at $2.6185. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $2.7536. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $2.3526. Second support is the September 30th low crossing at $2.2402.
December Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.552 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the March 15th low crossing at 4.872 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.094. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.552. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at 4.872.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that a sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at $107.450 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.912 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is September's high crossing at $114.745. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $114.782. First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $109.710. Second support is September's low crossing at $107.450.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, September's high crossing at $1.02650 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.98825 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1.01315. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1.02650. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $0.97455. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $0.96750. Third support is September's low crossing at $0.95920.
The December British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.1759 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1291 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 1.1923. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1074. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at 1.0937.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Friday's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02832 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.00813 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02832. Second resistance is the September 30th high crossing at 1.03435. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.99125. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the October 13th low crossing at $71.56. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 4th high crossing at $74.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $70.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 4th high crossing at $74.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.57. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $70.24.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068576 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068576. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.070333. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 0.066235. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1675.70 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1675.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1697.40. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1621.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 12th high crossing at $20.005 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, the September 28th low crossing at $17.895 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at $20.005. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $21.248. First support is the September 28th low crossing at $17.895. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was lower overnight while extending the September-October trading range. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 6th high crossing at 3.5930 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If December renews this month's decline, September's low crossing at 3.2430 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 3.5930. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 3.6925. First support is September's low crossing at 3.2430. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.74 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $6.54. First resistance is October's high crossing at $7.06 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.74. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $6.61 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.49 3/4. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.19 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends last-week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional strength that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.65 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 50-day moving average $9.33 3/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.93 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average $9.33 3/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2. If December renews the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $10.24 1/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.41 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 12th high crossing at $14.23 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If November renews the decline off the October 12th high, the October 6th low crossing at $13.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 12th high crossing at $14.23 1/4. Second resistance is the September 21st high crossing at $14.88 3/4. First support is the October 6th low crossing at $13.50. Second support is July's low crossing at $12.88 1/2.
December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends this week's wide trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $407.10 would temper the rally off last-Tuesday's low. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $424.00. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $417.90. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $424.00. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $398.80. Second support is the October 7th low crossing at $391.90.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 76.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.79 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 73.14. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 76.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 70.41. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 67.79.
Thanks tallpine!