KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Monday, October 31, 2022
9:45 AM ET. October Chicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 47.0; previous 45.7)
10:30 AM ET. October Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Business Activity (previous -17.2)
Mfg Production Idx (previous 9.3)
3:00 PM ET. September Agricultural Prices
Farm Prices, M/M% (previous -1.8%)
Tuesday, November 1, 2022
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +8.2%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +8.2%)
9:45 AM ET. October US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 49.9; previous 52.0)
10:00 AM ET. October ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI
Manufacturing PMI (expected 50.2; previous 50.9)
Prices Idx (previous 51.7)
Employment Idx (previous 48.7)
Inventories (previous 55.5)
New Orders Idx (previous 47.1)
Production Idx (previous 50.6)
10:00 AM ET. September Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected -0.6%; previous -0.7%)
10:00 AM ET. September Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey
4:00 PM ET. October Domestic Auto Industry Sales
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.5M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.3M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) +0.6M
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, November 2, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 201.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.7%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 160.4)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -2.3%)
Refinance Idx (previous 394.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.0%)
8:15 AM ET. October ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +190000; previous +208000)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement
10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. Housing Vacancies
10:00 AM ET. September Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. SEC Open Meeting
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 439.945M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.588M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 207.89M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.478M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.357M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.17M)
Refinery Usage (previous 88.9%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.587M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.174M)
11:00 AM ET. October Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 49.8)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 3.25)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 3.00)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 12)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 3.25)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.75)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
Thursday, November 3, 2022
7:30 AM ET. October Challenger Job-Cut Report
Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +46%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
8:30 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Preliminary Productivity & Costs
Non-Farm Productivity, Q/Q% (expected +0.6%; previous -4.6%)
Unit Labor Costs (expected +3.6%; previous +10.8%)
8:30 AM ET. September U.S. International Trade in Goods & Services
Trade Balance (USD) (expected -72.0B; previous -67.40B)
Exports (USD) (previous 258.92B)
Exports, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Imports (USD) (previous 326.32B)
Imports, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (expected 222K; previous 217K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +3K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1438000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +55K)
9:45 AM ET. October US Services PMI
PMI, Services (expected 46.6; previous 49.3)
10:00 AM ET. October ISM Report On Business Services PMI
Services PMI (expected 55.5; previous 56.7)
Business Activity Idx (previous 59.1)
Prices Idx (previous 68.7)
Employment Idx (previous 53.0)
New Orders Idx (previous 60.6)
10:00 AM ET. September Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories & Orders (M3)
Total Orders, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0%)
Orders, Ex-Defense, M/M% (previous -0.3%)
Orders, Ex-Transport, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Durable Goods, M/M%
Durable Goods, M/M%
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3394B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +52B)
12:00 PM ET. October Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index
2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
Friday, November 4, 2022
8:30 AM ET. October U.S. Employment Report
Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +225K; previous +263K)
Unemployment Rate (expected 3.6%; previous 3.5%)
Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.46)
Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.1)
Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.31%)
Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (previous +4.98%)
Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)
Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)
Government Payrolls (previous -25K)
Private Payroll (previous +288K)
Participation Rate (previous 62.3%)
Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg
11:00 AM ET. October Global Services PMI
PMI, Services (previous 50.0)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of last-Friday's rally. Overnight tradingsets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 10,921.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,781.14 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,781.14. Second resistance is the September 21st high crossing at 12,140.50. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 10,921.50. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 10,484.75.
The December S&P 500 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the October 13th low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the October 13th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 3757.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 3924.14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3757.50. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 3502.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 123-03 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off August's high, the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 123-03. Second resistance is the October 14th high crossing at 125-31. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 117-19. Second support is the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06.
December T-notes was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.137 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 111.310. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 113.137. First support is October's low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:December crude oil was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-week's rally, October's high crossing at $92.34 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off October's high, the September 30th low crossing at $78.36 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $92.34. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $95.55. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $81.30. Second support is the September 30th low crossing at $78.36. Third support is September's low crossing at $75.70.
December heating oil was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the October 21st low, October's high crossing at 3.8315 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the October 10th high crossing at $3.8315. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $3.8939. First support is the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the September-October rally crossing at $3.3997.
December unleaded gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 18th low crossing at $2.3526 would confirm that a double top with the October 10th high has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the July 29th high crossing at $2.7536 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $2.6600. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $2.7536. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $2.3526. Second support is the September 30th low crossing at $2.2402.
December Henry natural gas was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the March 15th low crossing at 4.872 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.445 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.445. Second resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 7.436. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at 4.872.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.835 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off September's high, September's low crossing at $107.450 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.835. Second resistance is the September 13thhigh crossing at $113.850. First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $109.710. Second support is September's low crossing at $107.450.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $0.98897 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at $1.02650 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $1.01315. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1.02650. First support is the October 21st low crossing at $0.97455. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $0.96750. Third support is September's low crossing at $0.95920.
The December British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.1759 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1324 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 1.1923. First support is the October 21st low crossing at 1.1074. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at 1.0937.
The December Swiss Franc was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower possible near-term. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.00814 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02636 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02636. Second resistance is the September 30th high crossing at 1.03435. First support is October's low crossing at 0.99125. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980.
The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off the October 13th low crossing at $71.56. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $72.99 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. Closes above the October 4th high crossing at $74.09 would confirm that the short-term trend has turned higher. If December renews the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $70.24 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 4th high crossing at $74.09. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.43. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $70.24.
The December Japanese Yen was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December resumes this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.070086 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.070086. Second resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895. First support is October's low crossing at 0.066235. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this year's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1671.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1671.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1692.50. First support is October's low crossing at $1621.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 12th high crossing at $20.005 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off September's high, the September 28th low crossing at $17.895 is the next downside target. First resistance is the September 12th high crossing at $20.005. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $21.248. First support is the September 28th low crossing at $17.895. Second support is the September low crossing at 17.400.
December copper was lower overnight while extending the September-October trading range. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 6th high crossing at 3.5930 would mark a potential upside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. If December extends last-week's decline, September's low crossing at 3.2430 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 3.5930. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 3.6925. First support is September's low crossing at 3.2430. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1355.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it broke out to the topside of the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 19th low crossing at $6.74 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $6.54. First resistance is October's high crossing at $7.06 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the October 19th low crossing at $6.74. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $6.61 1/2.
December wheat gapped up and was sharply higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.67 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.67 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.49 3/4. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.19 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat gapped up and was sharply higher overnight signaling that a short-term low has likely been posted. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish with strong overnight gains signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.60 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.60 1/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat gapped up and was sharply higher overnight marking an upside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off October's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2. First resistance is October's high crossing at $10.24 1/4. Second resistance is the July 11th high crossing at $10.56 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.44 1/2. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans gapped up and was higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 12th high crossing at $14.23 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the October 6th low crossing at $13.50 would mark a downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range while opening the door for a possible test of July's low. First resistance is the October 12th high crossing at $14.23 1/4. Second resistance is the September 21st high crossing at $14.88 3/4. First support is the October 6th low crossing at $13.50. Second support is July's low crossing at $12.88 1/2.
December soybean meal was steady to slightly high in late-overnight trading as it extends last-Friday's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $406.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $443.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $440.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $443.80. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $406.40. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $398.80.
December soybean oil was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 76.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 73.14. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 76.14. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 71.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 68.74.
Thanks much tallpine!
The 2nd half of November looks much colder so NG has been off to the races.
Russia is pulling out of a wheat deal which has wheat off to the races.