INO Morning Market Commentary
1 response | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Nov. 7, 2022, 7:46 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, November 7, 2022   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Employment Trends Index

 

                       ETI (previous 120.17)

 

                       ETI, Y/Y%

 

3:00 PM ET. September Consumer Credit

 

                       Consumer Credit Net Chg (USD) (previous +32.2B)

 



 

 

Tuesday, November 8, 2022   

 



 

 

6:00 AM ET. October NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

 

                       Small Business Idx (previous 92.1)

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +8.5%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +9.7%)

 

10:00 AM ET. November IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 41.6)

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 35.4)

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.5M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -2.6M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.9M)

 

  N/A               U.S. midterm elections

 



 

 

Wednesday, November 9, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 200.1)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 160.5)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.8%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 386.7)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.2%)

 

10:00 AM ET. September Monthly Wholesale Trade

 

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 

10:00 AM ET. October Online Help Wanted Index

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 436.83M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.115M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 206.633M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.257M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.784M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.427M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 90.6%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.481M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.106M)

 

12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)

 

                       Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)

 

                       Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)

 



 

 

Thursday, November 10, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 217K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1485000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +47K)

 

8:30 AM ET. October CPI

 

                       CPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.1%)

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +8.2%)

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)

 

8:30 AM ET. October Real Earnings

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3501B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +107B)

 

2:00 PM ET. October Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

Friday, November 11, 2022  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary

 

                       Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 59.8)

 

                       Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 56.2)

 

                       Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 65.3)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the sharp decline off October's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,227.80 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends last-week's decline, the October 13th low crossing at 10,484.75 low is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,272.92. Second resistance is the October 25st high crossing at 11,734.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 10,636.00. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 10,484.75.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the October 21st low crossing at 3641.50 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off the October 13th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 3924.14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30. First support is the October 21st low crossing at 3641.50. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 3502.00. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 122-28 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 122-28. Second resistance is the October 14th high crossing at 125-31. First support is October's low crossing at 117-19. Second support is the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06.



December T-notes was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.218 is the next upside target. First resistance is the October 27th high crossing at 111.310. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.218. First support is October's low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:December crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the October 18th low, August's high crossing at $95.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $92.87. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $95.55. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $85.30. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $81.30.



December heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the October 21st low, June's high crossing at $4.0651 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.5526 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $3.9565. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.0651. First support is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.5526. Second support is the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435.  



December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at $2.8638 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5494 would confirm that top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $2.8172. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at $2.8638. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.4822. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4458.



December Henry natural gas gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off October's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.264 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 5.893 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.264. Second resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 7.436. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at 4.872.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends last-Friday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $110.260 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the October 13th high crossing at $113.850 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the October 13thhigh crossing at $113.850. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 114.745. First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $109.710. Second support is September's low crossing at $107.450.



The December Euro was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at $1.02650 is the next upside target. If December resumes the decline off October's high, the October 13th low crossing at $0.96750 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $1.01315. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1.02650. First support is the October 21st low crossing at $0.97455. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $0.96750. Third support is September's low crossing at $0.95920.  



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the October 12th low crossing at 1.0937 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.1759 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 1.1923. First support is the October 21st low crossing at 1.1074. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at 1.0937.  



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's high. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher possible near-term. Closes above Wednesday's high crossing at 1.01410 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02230. Second resistance is the September 30th high crossing at 1.03435. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.99010. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980.

 

The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.10 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low, October's low crossing at $71.56 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.10. Second resistance is the September 20th crossing at $75.62. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $70.24.



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.069533 is the next upside target.If December resumes this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.069533. Second resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895. First support is October's low crossing at 0.066235. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $1682.40 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this year's decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1682.40. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $1738.70. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1618.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.



December silver was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $21.248 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $18.805 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. From a broader perspective, December remains locked within the August-November trading range. First resistance is October's high crossing at $21.310. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $18.805. Second support the October's low crossing at $18.010.   



December copper was lower overnight while extending the September-November trading range. The mid-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends last-Friday's rally, August's high crossing at 3.7835. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.3795 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.7085. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.3795. is the October 20th low crossing at 3.3030.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 19th low crossing at $6.74 would open the door for a possible test of September's low crossing at $6.54. If December resumes the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $7.06 1/2. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the October 19th low crossing at $6.74. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at $6.61 1/2. 



December wheat was lower overnight and remains poised to extend last-week's decline. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.63 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $9.04. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.49 3/4. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.19 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/2.   



December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 28th low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $9.91. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the October-November trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.93 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.93 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $10.24 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.33. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



January soybeans was lower overnight as it consolidated some of last-Friday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.09 1/2 would would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $14.65 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.09 1/2. Second support is the October 19th low crossing at $13.66 3/4.  

 

December soybean meal was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.00 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $443.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $440.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $443.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.00. Second support is the October 26th low crossing at $406.40.    



December soybean oil was slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.57. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.17. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.23.   


Comments
By metmike - Nov. 7, 2022, 10:36 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

MUCH colder models have natural gas MUCH higher and holding last night's enormous gap higher.