KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 200.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 160.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 386.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. September Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
10:00 AM ET. October Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 436.83M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.115M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 206.633M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.257M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.784M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.427M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.481M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.106M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
Thursday, November 10, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 217K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1485000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +47K)
8:30 AM ET. October CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.1%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +8.2%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)
8:30 AM ET. October Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3501B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +107B)
2:00 PM ET. October Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, November 11, 2022
10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 59.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 56.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 65.3)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 33,563.5 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,477.51 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 33,355.39. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 33,563.50. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 31,477.51. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30,884.71.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Today's high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,551.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off October's high, monthly support crossing at 10,027.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,551.20. Second resistance is the October 25h high crossing at 11,734.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 10,636.00. Second support is October's low crossing at 10,484.75.
The December S&P 500 closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rebound off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30. If December renews the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the October 21st low crossing at 3641.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 3924.14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30. First support is the October 21st low crossing at 3641.50. Second support is October's low crossing at 3502.00.
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December T-bonds closed up 1-08-pts. at 119-25.
December T-bonds closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, monthly support crossing at 114-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-09. Second resistance is the October 4th high crossing at 129-12. First support is October's low crossing at 117-19. Second support is monthly support on the continuation chart crossing at 114-06.
December T-notes closed up 185-pts. at 110.070.
December T-notes closed higher on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the decline off the October 27th high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turn neutral to bullish with additional gains that would signal that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 27th high crossing at 111.310 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 27th high crossing at 111.310. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.172. First support is October's low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
December crude oil closed sharply lower on Tuesday consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $85.30 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the aforementioned rally, August's high crossing at $95.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is August's high crossing at $95.45. Second resistance is the July 29th high crossing at $96.15. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $85.30. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $81.30.
December heating oil closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.5526 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at $4.0651 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $3.9565. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.0651. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.6714. Second support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.5526.
December unleaded gas closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5549 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at $2.8638 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $2.8172. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at $2.8638. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5549. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4454.
December Henry natural gas closed sharply lower on Tuesday after the rally was stopped with today's test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.196. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening is possible when Wednesday's overnight session begins trading. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 4.382 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7.197. Second resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 7.436. First support is the 62% retracement level of the July-August rally crossing at 5.393. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the June-August rally crossing at 4.382.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The December Dollar closed lower for the third-day in a row on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends today's decline, the September 13th low crossing at $107.450 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.534 would signal that a short-term low has likely been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $113.045. Second resistance is the October 13th high crossing at $113.850. First support is today's low crossing at $109.240. Second support is the September 13th low crossing at $107.450.
The December Euro closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the October 27th high crossing at $1.01315 renew the rally off September's low while opening the door for a possible test of September's high crossing at 1.02650. If December renews the decline off the October 27th high, September's low crossing at $0.95920 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 27th high crossing at $1.01315. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 1.02650. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $0.97605. Second support is October's low crossing at $0.96750.
The December British Pound closed slightly higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.1759 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1156 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-September decline crossing at 1.1853. First support is the October 12th low crossing at 1.0937. Second support is September's low crossing at 1.0392.
The December Swiss Franc closed higher on Tuesday as it extended the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02188 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.00801 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If December extends the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02188. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 1.03435. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.99010. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target.
The December Canadian Dollar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 20th high crossing at 75.62 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 72.44 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance the September 20th high crossing at 75.62. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 77.18. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 72.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at 70.42.
The December Japanese Yen closed higher on Tuesday extends the trading range of the past three-week's. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.069459 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renew this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.069459. Second resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895. First support is October's low crossing at 0.066235. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
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December gold closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, October's high crossing at $1738.70 is the next downside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $1738.70. Second resistance is September's high $1746.40. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1618.30. Second support is monthly support crossing at $1610.30.
December silver closed sharply higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 22.448 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 19.238 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 21.720. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 22.448. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 18.805. Second support is the September 28th low crossing at 17.895.
December copper closed higher on Tuesday.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 3.7835 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, September's low crossing at 3.2430 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 3.7085. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. First support September's low crossing at 3.2430. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.1315.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed down $0.08 1/4-cents at $6.67 1/2.
December corn closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off last-Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the September 28th low crossing at $6.61 1/2 is the next downside target. If December renews the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15 is the next upside target. First resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $7.00. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the September 28th low crossing at $6.61 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $6.54.
December wheat closed down $0.18-cents at $8.27 3/4.
December wheat closed lower on Tuesday and is testing support marked by October's low crossing at $8.22 1/2. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews this week's decline, the September 19th low crossing at $8.19 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.63 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.50 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.15. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.19 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4.
December Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.11 1/2-cents at $9.45 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.93 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.93 1/2. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.09 3/4-cents at $9.50 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Tuesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.33 would open the door for a larger-degree decline off October's high. If December renews the rally off August's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.66 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $9.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.66 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.33. Second support is the September 6th low crossing at $9.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans closed down $0.03 3/4-cents at $14.44 1/2.
January soybeans closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $14.76 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.12 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $14.76 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.15 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.12. is the October 19th low crossing at $13.66 3/4.
December soybean meal closed up $0.30 at $419.30.
December soybean meal posted an inside day with a slightly higher close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.30 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $443.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at $440.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $443.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.30. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $398.80.
December soybean oil closed down 130-pts. at 75.03.
December soybean oil closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.66 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.80. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.35. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 71.66.
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December hogs closed down $1.55 at $85.50.
December hogs closed lower on Tuesday as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at $91.35 is the next upside target. Close below the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.25 confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $89.80. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $91.35. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.25. Second support is the October 9th low crossing at $81.35.
December cattle closed down $1.00 at $152.95.
December cattle posted an inside day with a lower close on Tuesday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $151.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off September's low, the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $154.20. Second resistance is the June-2015 high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $156.48. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $151.57. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $150.10.
January Feeder cattle closed down $0.08 at $179.85.
January Feeder cattle closed slightly lower on Tuesday as it extends last-week's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $184.56 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at $177.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $180.60. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $184.56. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $177.70. Second support is October's low crossing at $172.10.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
December coffee closed lower on Tuesday as it extends the decline off August's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $18.34 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $18.34. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $20.98. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $16.62. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74.
December cocoa closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the June 6thhigh crossing at 25.89 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 25.81 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
March sugar closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off the October 28th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, July's high crossing at 19.69 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 18.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.
December cotton closed higher on Tuesday as it extends the rally off October's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Wednesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 90.77 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's gap crossing at 75.00 would signal that a top has been posted.
Thanks much tallpine!
Natural gas continues the tendency of being sharply higher 1 day, then sharply lower the next day. We filled the huge gap higher from Sunday Night and then some today.
This is usually a gap and crap exhaustion that signals a reversal from the previous move but in this case, natural gas is not trading the usual signals followed by position traders.
Day traders for sure, though.