on the opening the dry area just keep getting drier. some relief coming {they say} but how much damage has been done is the question.....where the crops have been ahead of schedule  makes this dryness in July more of a factor than usual. with nearby forecast wetter and cooler and the tariff thing neutral right now slightly softer on the open

I'm not sure about the open mcfarm. There are some places that will miss the rains that looked as if they would get them on Friday. 

It also looks a bit warmer than Friday.

Latest weather for grains:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/9102/

Monday am update: The forecast is drier and warmer

https://www.agweb.com/article/gulke-reasons-to-be-optimistically-cautious/?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWTJReU1HUmlNalZtTTJFNCIsInQiOiI2aDgxSTRTRSs0UDExaDR4R3p3aDRIdysxWHdxdTBVY2p5aHczY3ZucSs2dDB6amVibE1RQ25VcUdrejRndlVSbUVSdFlqY1pCbFZqUndDcVVxWXk0aEpabDVCXC9LQ3h5Z2FNazVwZWRDemtFUnpaOVFEOGFLdk9IUHU5aVRYdk8ifQ%3D%3D   some thoughts from an "expert"  and some liken these experts to weathermen? what? that is mean!

Me thinks, when ever the dust settles, buyers will source grains where ever they are cheapest

I know this does not answer Sunday nite markets, but I wanted to point out that NAFTA or no NAFTA will not change Canadian imports/exports of beans

Either we need beans or we have a surplus and CBOT will determine the price

Tarriffs are a wild card and will not likely last for ever

We also grow a good amount of western prairie canola which is often shipped into Ontario/Quebec for crushing and animal feed where ever the ration allows

It sounds to me like somebody was bored this weekend and needed a good bloviating...

We are really blessed with the weather knowledge and leadership at marketforum  !

Thanks SS,

I've taken a bit more rain out of the forecast today. There is also more heat.......heat fill for corn. 

For sure I am very long winded. Am not doing it out of boredom but am trying to stimulate interest and provide useful information to grow the forum. You are helping and its much appreciated. 

Pass the word around to any associates that might enjoy it. 

... you have been a much needed and well received asset to some very close friends and grain traders in the industry Mike...

.... when I say well appreciated I really mean well appreciated.

... the "Evansville Educator" has given crucial support too many in the trading spectrum... now it is Go Time again as I have been very hesitant to trade as in the last couple of months with pattern changes that I've never seen in trading before and would like to not sit on the sidelines as a spectator anymore as it seems like everybody's taken their chips off the table and everything seems equally divided into a what is mine and what is yours mentality .

You have actually been followed  a lot more than you think you have in past years and I think you'll see some more of your silent followers show up with trading ideas in the near future... 

Giving

IN GIVING, I OPEN TO MY HIGHEST PURPOSE.

The prayer of St. Francis tells us, “For it is in giving that we receive ...” The simple act of sharing with someone opens my heart, creating an awareness of the energetic link between that person and myself.

---- Evan

Dang SS,

That was one of the kindest posts ever sent in my direction!

Thanks so much for your special thoughts.

On these grains...................we might have a weather market here. However, the volatility and uncertainty is even greater than usual. 

SX gapped higher on the open tonight..........I think Friday's high was 889 and we closed strong on Friday.......we spiked up quickly after the open and usually, in a weather market its a upside break away gap and we don't look back. We got to last weeks highs and just above 896 but ran into plenty of selling/resistance. 

We are down to the lows again. If we close the gap higher, then its a gap and crap and it goes from an upside break out bullish technical formation to one that is bearish.............buying exhaustion.  The weather, however is turning more bullish, so the market will have a chance to bring in more buying........if it stays in this direction overnight.

There is enough rain in the forecast so that its not completely one sided.

I'm  confident that tonights strong open was from less rain and more heat in the forecast, as mentioned earlier........but corn is up 29c from the lows and beans 60c from the lows and both are bumping up against last weeks highs.

Dec Corn tested last weeks highs tonight and they held it back. 380 was the high so far. My charts are messed up so I can't tell if corn also gapped higher on the open.

Dec Corn did gap up on open Mike

I don't have much to contribute tonight other than rain that was expected did little more than get the ground wet here in NE Ohio.  Corn that looked great 3 weeks ago has rolling leaves and looks sick now.

EDIT @8:53 P.M.  CST

... the Z-December Corn Is A Poppin' Again ...

... Pick your own upside targets... least path of resistance looks like 3-96- 1/2

Thanks lajj77,

We've filled those gaps higher in corn and beans and are on the lows. This is a very weak chart/technical pattern. 

A gap and crap as Greenman told me back in 2002. Tonight, both corn beans gapped higher but had no follow thru, in fact we failed at last weeks highs, then continued weak and dropped down below Friday's highs, which was the bottom of the price gap that was caused by the price opening above Friday's highs in both corn and beans. 

Both of them are still  up here at 10:30pm vs the close on Friday.

Are the lows in?

Corn Trading 28c off the lows right now and 50c off the late May highs.

Corn historical perspective:

Who remembers $8 corn not so long(5 years) ago   

Is the bottom in?  If the heat returns in August and causes heat fill it is.

3 month below

1 year below

5 year below                                      10 year below

Are the lows in for beans?

50c+ off the lows, still over $1.70 off the late May highs.

Soybeans: Wider perspective: Currently close to 10 year lows !!!!!

Soybeans 3 months below

Soybeans 1 year chart below   

Soybeans 5 years below

Soybeans10years-Wow, look at that high from the drought of 2012...and demand, currently at 10 year lows!

Updated crop ratings come out tomorrow at 3pm. Expectations of the numbers on  the report will help to determine how we trade on Monday............then those numbers get traded after the crop rating is out.

Any estimates/guesses?

My guess right now is a drop of 1-2% for corn and beans.

This was last Mondays crop condition report:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3018.txt

Crop rating for corn stayed the same 72% gd/ex. I though it might drop a tad.

Bean rating got better by 1% to 70%.

Spring wheat dropped 1% but is incredibly high at 79%.

Cotton rating plunged again with a 5% increase in the poor/very poor.......now rated 33% in those categories. Half of the TX/OK crop is p/vp. Of course TX is #1 in cotton by a wide margin. NC also has 27% p/vp.

Thanks Jim

Thanks for the article mcfarm and comments Wayne and new stuff SS.

Beans and corn only up around 1c now. 

Good rain here in ECILL 2.4 since Sunday Morning and still raining. Corn seems maturing to fast here even with the good rains we have had. Ended up with 4.2 inches

It was too wet in Mn. So now when it's turning drier we're starting to see the stressful effects this dryness is having on the shallow rooted corn and soybeans. Things change in a hurry around here. The wheat crop continues to look like a bust due to excessive wet causing disease problems and more are opting to chop it for silage to feed to cattle. Good quality hay price is improving due to swathed hay being rained on too many times before it can be baled...and that's if the hay could be cut pre-bloom due to soggy field conditions.

Thanks Pll-you lucky dog you and Cliff- you unlucky dog-maybe the image below will make you feel better (-:

 

Latest weather for grains:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/9102/

The main market weather item this morning is that there is less rain in the forecast vs Friday and more heat. Not just this week but also week 2.

But there are nice rains in some places of the ECB now and late week in the Upper Midwest at the end of the week.

Latest grain export inspections............huge for corn, good for beans.

 mcfarm, you can do more back flips over these numbers.

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt

mcfarm,

Let us know how much rain you get today(his farms are all just southeast of Indianapolis). Here in the southwest corner of IN, Evansville, my rain gauge shows .08 so far.

yes, we got 4/10ths this morning....beautiful rain....things kind of fell apart and now its trying to rain again as we speak.....not to worry said the mets we have more chances tonite, and tomorrow the most likely percent of rain

Crop condition report from the USDA:

https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/prog3118.txt

I thought ratings could drop 1% or so since its been pretty dry in a lot of locations but it was also fairly cool last week, so stress was minimized.

Corn ratings stayed exactly the same as last week. 72% good to excellent. Last year we were 63% good to excellent.

Bean ratings were the same, with just a shift of 1% from exc to good but 70% good to excellent vs 59% a year ago.

HRS wheat dropped 1% to 78% gd/exc still very high, especially compared with 31% a year ago. 

Cotton rating went up, +4% to 43% gd/ex vs 56% gd/ex a year ago.