KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Wednesday, November 9, 2022
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 200.1)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.5%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 160.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -0.8%)
Refinance Idx (previous 386.7)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.2%)
10:00 AM ET. September Monthly Wholesale Trade
Inventories, M/M% (previous +1.3%)
10:00 AM ET. October Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 436.83M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -3.115M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 206.633M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.257M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 106.784M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +0.427M)
Refinery Usage (previous 90.6%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 20.481M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.106M)
12:00 PM ET. World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates (WASDE)
Corn, End Stocks (Bushels)
Soybeans, End Stocks (Bushels)
Wheat, End Stocks (Bushels)
Cotton, End Stocks (Bales)
Thursday, November 10, 2022
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 217K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1485000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +47K)
8:30 AM ET. October CPI
CPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)
Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
Energy Idx, M/M% (previous -2.1%)
Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)
CPI, Y/Y% (previous +8.2%)
Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)
8:30 AM ET. October Real Earnings
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3501B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous +107B)
2:00 PM ET. October Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt.
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, November 11, 2022
10:00 AM ET. November University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - preliminary
Mid-Mo Sentiment (previous 59.8)
Mid-Mo Expectations (previous 56.2)
Mid-Mo Current Idx (previous 65.3)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,186.99 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews the decline off October's high, the October 13th low crossing at 10,484.75 low is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,186.99. Second resistance is the October 25st high crossing at 11,734.00. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 10,636.00. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 10,484.75.
The December S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off the October 13th low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off last-Tuesday's high, the October 21st low crossing at 3641.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 3924.14. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30. First support is the October 21st low crossing at 3641.50. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 3502.00.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. However, closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 122-28 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If December renews the decline off August's high, the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 122-28. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 126-03. First support is October's low crossing at 117-19. Second support is the April-2010 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 114-06.
December T-notes was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.128 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157 is the next downside target. First resistance is the October 27th high crossing at 111.310. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.128. First support is October's low crossing at 108.265. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2000-2020 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 105.157.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
ENERGIES:December crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off the October 18th low, August's high crossing at $95.55 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $93.74. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $95.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.13. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $85.40.
December heating oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $3.5526 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If December resumes the rally off the October 21st low, June's high crossing at $4.0651 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $3.9565. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.0651. First support is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 3.5526. Second support is the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435.
December unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5614 would confirm that top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at $2.8638 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $2.8172. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-September decline crossing at $2.8638. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.5614. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.4822.
December Henry natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 5.893 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 7.221 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 7.221. Second resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 7.436. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at 4.872.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Thursday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below October's low crossing at $109.365 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the October 13th high crossing at $113.850 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the October 13thhigh crossing at $113.850. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 114.745. First support is the 25% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $109.710. Second support is September's low crossing at $107.450.
The December Euro was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at $1.02650 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $0.99361 would temper the near-term neutral to friendly outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at $1.01315. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $1.02650. First support is the October 21st low crossing at $0.97455. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at $0.96750. Third support is September's low crossing at $0.95920.
The December British Pound was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Friday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off September's low, September's high crossing at 1.1759 is the next upside target. If December extends the decline off October's high, the October 12th low crossing at 1.0937 is the next downside target. First resistance is September's high crossing at 1.1759. Second resistance is the August 26th high crossing at 1.1923. First support is the October 21st low crossing at 1.1074. Second support is the October 12th low crossing at 1.0937.
The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02157 would open the door for a possible test of the September 30th high crossing at 1.03435. If December renews the decline off August's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02157. Second resistance is the September 30th high crossing at 1.03435. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 0.99010. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2021 rally on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 0.98980.
The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 20th crossing at $75.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.32 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the September 20th crossing at $75.62. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at $77.18. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $72.14. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2021 rally crossing at $70.24.
The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.069380 is the next upside target. If December resumes this year's decline, is long-term support crossing at 0.065720 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.069380. Second resistance is the September 22nd high crossing at 0.071895. First support is October's low crossing at 0.066235. Second support is long-term support crossing at 0.065720.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, October's high crossing at $1738.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1661.00 would signal that a short-term top has likely been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $1738.70. Second resistance is the August 25th high crossing at $1778.80. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $1618.30. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2020 rally on the weekly chart crossing at $1610.30.
December silver was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off last-Thursday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $18.805 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. From a broader perspective, First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $21.720. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $20.106. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at $19.301.
December copper was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 3.7835. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4630 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 3.7085. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 3.7835. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4630. Second support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 3.3795.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight as it awaits the release of today's monthly WASDE report for direction. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Monday's high, September's low crossing at $6.54 is a possible downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.83 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $7.00. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $7.06 1/2. Third resistance is the 75% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at $7.15. First support is the September 28th low crossing at $6.61 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $6.54.
December wheat was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.63 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $9.04. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $9.49 3/4. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.19 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/2.
December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 28th low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at $9.91. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.
December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the October-November trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Wednesday's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.93 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $9.93 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $10.24 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.33. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
January soybeans was steady to higher overnight as it consolidated some of the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.14 1/4 would would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $14.65 1/2. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.14 1/4. Second support is the October 19th low crossing at $13.66 3/4.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $443.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $440.50. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $443.80. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $415.70. Second support is the October 26th low crossing at $406.40.
December soybean oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.11 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 77.80. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.29. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 74.48. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.11.
The 7-10 day, limited duration of the upcoming big cold wave and supplies gushing in have natural gas sharply lower again.