Previous USDA thread malfunctioned
All trade estimates for USDA's Wed reports, out at 11 am CST. Focus is still on 2022 U.S. crops. Overall, the November reports are not as big of market movers as others, though it's always possible, especially this year with so many unknowns (Black Sea, China, Argy drought, etc).
22/23 world stock estimates above expectations for #soybeans & #wheat, #corn pretty close to expectations. #Argentina wheat crop down 2 mmt to 15.5, #Australia up 1.5 to 34.5 mmt. No changes in Black Sea wheat prod/exp (same w/ #Ukraine corn). #China corn/soy/wheat imports unch.
Only changes to South America were with #Argentina's #soybeans: 21/22 crop down a tick and 22/23 down 1.5 mmt from last month's estimate.
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2022/23 #corn & soy U.S. ending stocks are up from October but lower than expected for corn, higher than expected for #soybeans. #Wheat comes in slightly lower.
Last year, USDA's January yields were very close to the ones from November (identical in the case of #corn), but that was not the case in the previous few years. Yields for corn & #soybeans came down notably in Jan for both the 2018 & 2020 crops, and they rose from Nov in 2019.
How surprising was that? Quite a bit for the 2020 corn and 2019 soybean yields. But last year, the yields were barely expected to move, and that's what ended up happening. Unusually uneventful Jan report this last time regarding the yields.
Not much movement in yield for U.S. #soybeans among the major states, though overall yield was up slightly. The only reduction among the top 10 producers was in South Dakota.
U.S. #corn yield up slightly from last month on a big increase in Illinois - now at a record 215 bpa. Notable rises in Indiana & Iowa as well. Losses in Nebraska & South Dakota offset some of the improvements. 168 in Nebraska (lowest since 2012) compares w/ record 194 last year.
