INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 15, 2022, 7:45 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Tuesday, November 15, 2022   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous -9.1)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 7.7)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 3.7)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 22.9)

 

8:30 AM ET. October PPI

 

                       PPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous +0.4%)

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +7.6%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.6%)

 

11:00 AM ET. Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Q3 Household Debt and Credit Report

 

4:30 AM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.6M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +2.6M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.8M)

 

  N/A               U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission releases

 

                       2022 Annual Report to Congress

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it extended the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,150.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,258.75 would temper the near-term bullish outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 11,898.50. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,150.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,480.13. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,258.77.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off the October 13th low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3806.31 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 4024.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35. First support is the November 3rd low crossing at 3704.25. Second support is the October 21st low crossing at 3641.50. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were higher overnight as it extended the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-09 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-01 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-09. Second resistance is October's high crossing at 129-12. First support is November's low crossing at 118-03. Second support is October's low crossing at 117-19.



December T-notes was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 113.300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.238 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is October's high crossing at 113.300. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.142. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 110.238. Second support is November's low crossing at 109.105. Third support is October's low crossing at 108.265.  



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:December crude oil was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $90.10 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline November's high, the October 18th low crossing at $81.30 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $93.74. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $95.55. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $81.30. Second support is September's low crossing at $75.70.



December heating oil was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4930 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.6896 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at $3.9565. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.0651. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.4930. Second support is the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435.  



December unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4648 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $2.6586 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.6586. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $2.8172. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4648. Second support is the October 18th low crossing at $2.3526.  



December Henry natural gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.885 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at 7.221. Second resistance is the October 6th high crossing at 7.436. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at 4.872.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the decline off September's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.881 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $109.157. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $110.269. First support is the overnight low crossing at $105.785. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650.



The December Euro was lower overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at $1.04650 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $0.99602 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $1.04650. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.07091. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.01288. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.00340.   



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1344 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.1858. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 1.1344. Second support is the November 4th low crossing at 1.1156.    



The December Swiss Franc was higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that additional gains are possible. If December extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01882 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.06990. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.03023. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.01882.

 

The December Canadian Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the September 20th crossing at $75.62 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.82 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the September 20th crossing at $75.62. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at $77.18. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $73.82. Second support is November's low crossing at $72.44.



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight and remains poised to extend the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's, the August 23rd high crossing at 1.07410 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068862 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 0.072525. Second resistance is the August 23rd high high crossing at 1.07410. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.068862. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.066235. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was steady to higher overnight as it extends the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $1824.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1682.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $1787.20. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1824.60. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1682.80. Second support is November's low crossing at $1618.30.



December silver was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.466 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.129 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $22.380. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $21.100. Second support the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.128.   



December copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.0450 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5631 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.9600. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.0450. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.6890. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.5631.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off October's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the August 26th low crossing at $6.47 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.79 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.67 1/2. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.79 3/4. First support is Monday's low crossing at $6.52 1/4. Second support is the August 26th low crossing at $6.47 1/4. 



December wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.38. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.62 1/2. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $7.95 1/2. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/2.   



December Kansas City wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 28th low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is November's high crossing at $9.91. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.



December Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above November's high crossing at $9.93 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off November's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $9.93 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $10.24 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.29. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



January soybeans was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.20 1/2 would would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $14.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.20 1/2. Second support is the October 19th low crossing at $13.66 3/4.  

 

December soybean meal was slightly lower overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the October 18th low crossing at $398.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.90 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $414.90. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $440.50. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $398.80. Second support is the October 26th low crossing at $406.40.    



December soybean oil was lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging and turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.05 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 78.64. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.29. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.05. Second support is the October 28th low crossing at 71.09.   


Comments
By metmike - Nov. 15, 2022, 10:48 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!