INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Nov. 18, 2022, 7:51 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Friday, November 18, 2022  

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October State Employment and Unemployment

 

10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

 

10:00 AM ET. October Existing Home Sales

 

                       Existing Sales (expected 4.37M; previous 4.71M)

 

                       Existing Sales, M/M% (expected -7.2%; previous -1.5%)

 

                       Unsold Homes Month's Supply (previous 3.2)

 

                       Median Price (USD) (previous 384800)

 

                       Median Home Price, Y/Y% (previous +8.4%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Leading Indicators

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -0.4%)

 

                       Leading Index

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

 

                      5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)

 

                       End-Mo Current Idx (previous 65.6)

 

1030/1530  11/18    EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

 

                       Refinery Usage

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)    

 

                     

 

12:00 PM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. Federal Open Market Committee meeting minutes published

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The December NASDAQ 100 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,405.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,547.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,150.94. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,547.94. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,405.40. Second support is the November 10th low crossing at 10,808.00.



The December S&P 500 was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3875.59 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off the October 13th low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 4024.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3923.60. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3875.59. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: December T-bonds were lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 128-06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Thursday's high crossing at 126-27. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 128-06. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 123-06. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 121-27.



December T-notes was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 113.300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.063 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 113.300. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.142. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.063. Second support is November's low crossing at 109.105. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:December crude oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline November's high, September's low crossing at $75.70 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $87.19 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $90.10. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $93.74. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $81.30. Second support is September's low crossing at $75.70.



December heating oil was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.5021 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at $3.7173 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at $3.9565. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $4.0651. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5021. Second support is the October 21st low crossing at $3.4435.  



December unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight but remains below broken support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4760. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's decline, the October 18th low crossing at 2.3526 is the next downside target. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $2.6586 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.6586. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $2.8172. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $2.3526. Second support is September's low crossing at $2.1877.



December Henry natural gas was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.772 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.772. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 7.221. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 crossing at 5.393. Second support is the March 15th low crossing at 4.872.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.359 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $107.625. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $109.359. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $105.155. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650.



The December Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at $1.07137 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.01156 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is August's high crossing at $1.04650. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.07137. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1.02759. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.01156.   



The December British Pound was higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1604 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.2041. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1604. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1367.    



The December Swiss Franc was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends Thursday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02686 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at 1.07550 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 1.07275. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.04615. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02686.

 

The December Canadian Dollar was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off October's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.16 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $77.18 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 20th crossing at $75.62. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $77.18. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $74.85. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $74.16.



The December Japanese Yen was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's, the August 23rd high crossing at 1.074410 is the next upside target.Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069512 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 0.072925. Second resistance is the August 23rd high high crossing at 1.074410. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.069512. Second support is October's low crossing at 0.066235. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Decembergold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $1824.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1701.50 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1791.80. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1824.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $1749.00. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1701.50.



December silver was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Thursday's decline and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.486 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If December resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.466 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $22.380. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.448. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $20.486. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at $19.778.   



December copper was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. The low-range trade overnight sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.6096 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.0450 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 3.9600. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of this year's decline crossing at 4.0450. First support is the 00-day moving average crossing at 3.6096. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5069.   



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.79 3/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If December extends the decline off the October 31st high, the August 26th low crossing at $6.47 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.79 1/2. Second resistance is the October 31st high crossing at $7.00. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $6.51 1/4. Second support is the August 26th low crossing at $6.47 1/4. 



December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past six-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $7.91 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.61 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.34. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.61. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $7.93 3/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $7.91 1/2.   



December Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If December renews the rally off the October 28th low, the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $9.91. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-August decline crossing at $10.26 3/4. First support is the October 28th low crossing at $9.15 1/4. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $8.96 1/4.



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the July-November trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off November's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above November's high crossing at $9.93 1/4 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is November's high crossing at $9.93 1/4. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $10.24 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $9.29. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.06 1/2. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



January soybeans was higher overnight as it consolidates some of this week's decline that saw a downside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this week's decline, the October 26th low crossing at $13.80 1/2 is the next downside target. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $14.69. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $14.06 3/4. Second support is the October 26th low crossing at $13.80 1/2.  

 

December soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past five-days. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends the decline off October's high, the October 18th low crossing at $398.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $414.60 would temper the bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $414.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $440.50. First support is the October 18th low crossing at $398.80. Second support is the October 26th low crossing at $406.40.    



December soybean oil was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last-Friday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December extends this week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.19 is the next downside target. If December resumes the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 79.29 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 78.64. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 79.29. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 69.19. Second support is the October 13th low crossing at 64.05.  


Comments
By metmike - Nov. 18, 2022, 10:41 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Milder temps overnight and lower HDDs HAD ng lower, though its coming back.

0Z European model was -6 HDDs. GFS -9 HDDs vs the 12z run from Thursday.