INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - July 30, 2018, 8:16 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, July 30, 2018   

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. June Pending Home Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 105.9)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected +0.0%; previous -0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -2.2%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. July Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

 



 

 

                       Business Activity (expected 32.0; previous 36.5)

 



 

 

                       Mfg Production Idx (previous 23.3)

 



 

 

3:00 PM ET. July Agricultural Prices

 



 

 

                       Farm Prices, M/M% (previous +1.7%)

 



 

 

  N/A               Trump meets Italian PM at the White House

 



 

 

Tuesday, July 31, 2018  

 



 

 

7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.9%)

 



 

 

                       Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.0%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index

 



 

 

                       ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. June Personal Income & Outlays

 



 

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)

 



 

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)

 



 

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.8%)

 



 

 

9:00 AM ET. May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 



 

 

                       10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)

 



 

 

                       20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, M/M% (previous +1%)

 



 

 

                       National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.4%)

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. July ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI

 



 

 

                       PMI-Adj (expected 62.3; previous 64.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. July Consumer Confidence Index

 



 

 

                       Cons Conf Idx (expected 125.5; previous 126.4)

 



 

 

                       Expectation Idx (previous 103.2)

 



 

 

                       Present Situation Idx (previous 161.1)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 



 

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.2M)

 



 

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.9M)

 



 

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.3M)

 



 

 

  N/A               U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting

 


The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"  



The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as the market is still absorbing some of last week's disappointing earnings news. The broad benchmark’s strong month is shaping up to end on a downbeat note, with buying appetite waning on that second-quarter earnings gloom. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the NASDAQ 100 extends the decline off last week's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 7199.35 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7389.07 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7199.35. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.    



The September S&P 500 was slightly lower overnight as it extends last Friday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2793.60 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 2885.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2846.31. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2793.60. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2766.36.      



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were lower overnight as it extends the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 142-01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-16 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-16. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.  



September T-notes were lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 118.295 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.312 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.312. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.    



ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"



ENERGY MARKETS: SeptemberNymex crude oil was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.56 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target.First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.56. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 72.98. First support is July's low crossing at 66.29. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99.    



September heating oil was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 223.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 213.01 would signal an end to the rally off July's low. First resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.73. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.85.



September unleaded gas was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 215.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 206.15 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 217.41. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.



September Henry natural gas was steady to slightly lower overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.860 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.737 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.860. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.737. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.671.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the May-July trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, July's high crossing at 95.44 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.08 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-August. First resistance is July's high crossing at 95.44. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.08. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.44.  



The September Euro was slightly higher overnight. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, June's low crossing at 115.82 is the next downside target. Closes above July's high crossing at 118.52 are needed to confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 118.52. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 119.40. First support is June's low crossing at 115.82. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. 



The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2862 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3300 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3403. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. First support is July's low crossing at 1.2988. Second support is is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2862.  



The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above July's high crossing at 1.0204 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.



The September Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 77.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.19 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is June's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.



The September Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9093 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.8989 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9093. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9198. First support is July's low crossing at 0.8867. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805. 



PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1242.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1242.80. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1272.30. First support is the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1217.90. Second support is the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90.



September silver was higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.739 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.739. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.250. First support is July's low crossing at 15.185. Second support is the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145. 



September copper was lower overnight. The low-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 286.70 are needed to renew the rally off July's low. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 299.78. First support is July's low crossing at 267.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.83 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.83 3/4. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 4.00 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.  



December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.75 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.23 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.75 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 5.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.36 1/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.23.        



December Kansas City Wheat closed down 1-cent at 5.59 1/2. 



December Kansas City wheat closed lower on Friday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If December extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.97 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.24 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.97 3/4. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.15 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.46 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.24 1/2. 



December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.32 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.67 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.32 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.91 1/2. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.80.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "



November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.30 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.65 1/2 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.30 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.25.



December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 338.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 338.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 341.70. First support is July's low crossing at 321.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40. 



December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.12 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.57 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.12. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.29. First support is July's low crossing at 29.78. Second support is the August-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 25.47.



Comments
By metmike - July 30, 2018, 10:15 a.m.
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Thanks Tallpine and Welcome back!