Very Happy July 30th!
Scroll down and really enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.
Less rain than Friday.
Good Rains in the Eastern belt now/early this week. Good Rains in the Upper Midwest late week/weekend. Drying out southwestern belt.
The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.
Day 1 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054
Day 2 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112
Day 3 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764
Days 4-5 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
Days 6-7 below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162
7 Day Total precipitation below:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126
Excessive Rainfall threat shifting southeast/east early this week.........see the maps below:
Current Day 1 Forecast |
Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format
Current Day 2 Forecast |
Day 3 forecast below
Severe Storm Risk. Hit the map for full screen. Not very high. Jet stream not that strong.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
High Temperatures today and Tuesday....... feels like Fall in the C.Plains/Midwest to East Coast.
Blast furnace in the Southwest..........even Pacific Northwest feels the heat(records)!!!
Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Very Comfortable air N/C Plains/ Midwest to East!
Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.
Highs days 3-7.
Gradually heating back up during this period.
Cooling West!!!!!
How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year? We have now past the the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.
Above average in the Plains to Midwest to Northeast. Below average Southeast.
Heat in the West shifts a bit east.
High temperature departures:
Low Temperature Departures:
Cool Canadian high pressure N. Plains to Upper Midwest to NorthEast Coast. Warm front S.Plains and eastward setting off shwrs there to S.Midwest.
Rains the past 24 hours. Very welcome rains S.Plains. Illinois........Pll got a good one in S.IL.
Missouri/Arkansas to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(this is why they were signing in the welcome recent rains which are ending there).
Recent drying has extended into S.IA/IL/IN/OH. Eastern Cornbelt getting good rains the next day+
NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.
You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:
https://water.weather.gov/precip/
Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"
Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.
See how dry it's been in the Central Cornbelt for over a week and some negative departures for 14 and 30 days over the southern and eastern belt. This map is not updated for the last 24 hours at the moment.
https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html
Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx
Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in white.
Today: Cool in C Plains and Midwest.............. heat backed up West.
In 5+ days:
Heat West moves east to Plains/Upper Midwest/Northeast. Below average temperatures shift to Southeast.
In 10+ days Hot West to Plains. Heat spills across the entire country? Temps uncertain in East.
Day 15 Hot West/N-C Plains/Midwest to Northeast?.............Heat IS moving around. A bit below normal Southeast
Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles. Impressive heat ridge dominates much of the country but exactly where will it be centered?
Still several members that like the idea of a trough in the Northeast which splits the big ridges in the W.Atlantic and the one farther west in the US.
360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC
You want uncertainty late week 2? I'll give you uncertainty.
The last 6Z operational GFS model shows an upper level trough in the Northeast with a surge of cooler air but the previous 0z run, shown at the bottom showed something different..........an upper heat ridge dominating more of that area.
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |
Previous GFS below
gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht | gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht |
gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick | gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht |
The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4. Looks similar to yesterday.
Cool in the Plains, then Midwest. Heat back out West.
Widespread Wet in the Plains eastward.
Precip below:
Sneak peak at what the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts will show.
For the Cornbelt and Plains, above normal temperatures everywhere, warmest north.
Precipitation will be below normal in many spots, highest probabilities in the Plains and Southwestern Cornbelt:
Below is one of the tools that the NWS service uses to make their extended temperature outlooks. I would expand the reds much farther southeast compared to this product and shrink the blue to very small part of the Southeast.
Note how dry the precipitation outlook is below. Warm north and cool south is often a very dry pattern. Not only is there less temperature disparity with latitude, the lack of a heat ridge in the far Southeast means less Gulf moisture getting pumped northward:
It actually looks like the W.Atlantic ridge will be pumping in the moisture to places in the Eastern part of the US. The southern US also looks wet>
Last set of guidance continues to really warm things up(slightly warmer).
12Z operation GFS:
Total rains..................miss the entire Southwest Cornbelt: Bountiful in the Eastern Cornbelt
As expected, the NWS extended maps came out much warmer. t
Hot in the Plains/Western Cornbelt. Dry in the Plains and Southwestern Cornbelt.......shifting eastward.
Wet in the Eastern 1/3 of the country.
6-10 day Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability |
8-14 day Temperature Probability | |
Precipitation Probability |
Extreme weather days 3-7:
Excessive rain potential Midwest to East Coast as heat ridge starts building in and perturbations around the ridge fire up organized t-storm clusters.
See tropical weather update here: