Weather Monday
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Started by metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:26 a.m.

Very Happy July 30th!


 Scroll down and really enjoy the latest comprehensive weather.


Less rain than Friday.

Good Rains in the Eastern belt now/early this week. Good Rains in the Upper Midwest late week/weekend.  Drying out southwestern belt.


 The latest rain forecasts are below...........broken down into each period coming up. Then the 1 week totals.


Day 1 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1526306199054

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_94qwbg.gif?1531339983148

Day 2 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1528293750112


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_98qwbg.gif?1531340045174


Day 3 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1528293842764

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif?1531340092706



Days 4-5 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

 Days 6-7 below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1526306162

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1531339379

   




7 Day Total precipitation below:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.govcdx /qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1530796126

                    


            

                                

Comments
By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:28 a.m.
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Excessive Rainfall threat shifting southeast/east early this week.........see the maps below:



Current Day 1 ForecastCurrent Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 1 Threat Area in Text Format  



Current Day 2 ForecastCurrent Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Forecast


Day 3 forecast below

Current Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Forecast

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:29 a.m.
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Severe Storm Risk.  Hit the map for full screen. Not very high. Jet stream not that strong.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/

Current Day 1 Outlook
        1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook             
                Forecaster: Hart/Kerr
Issued: 18/1240Z
Valid: 18/1300Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Slight Risk        
      
          Current Day 2 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0600Z
Valid: 19/1200Z - 20/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk        
      
          Current Day 3 Outlook
          0600 UTC Day 3 Outlook               
                Forecaster: Bunting
Issued: 18/0731Z
Valid: 20/1200Z - 21/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Marginal Risk
      
          Current Day 4-8 Outlook
          Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:35 a.m.
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High Temperatures today and Tuesday....... feels like Fall in the C.Plains/Midwest to East Coast. 

Blast furnace in the Southwest..........even Pacific Northwest feels the heat(records)!!!

                    

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:36 a.m.
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Dew points. 70+ on this scale makes it feel uncomfortable(sticky air)! Very Comfortable air N/C Plains/ Midwest to East!


Current Dew Points

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:37 a.m.
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Heat and high humidity COMBINED. Feels like temperature.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5TqIdff_DQ

Current US Heat Index Map

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:39 a.m.
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Highs days 3-7.

Gradually heating back up during this period.


Cooling West!!!!!


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:42 a.m.
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How do these days 3-7 temperatures compare to average at this time of year?  We have now past the the climatological time of year when temperatures are the hottest.

Above average in the Plains to Midwest to Northeast. Below average Southeast.

Heat in the West shifts a bit east.


High temperature departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif




Low Temperature Departures:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcminwbg.gif

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:43 a.m.
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Cool Canadian high pressure N. Plains to Upper Midwest to NorthEast Coast. Warm front S.Plains and eastward setting off shwrs there to S.Midwest.


https://weather.com/maps/currentusweather

Current US Surface Weather Map

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:44 a.m.
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Here is the latest radar image:



http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar_tab.php

Doppler Radar National Mosaic Loop

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:44 a.m.
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Satellite picture.


US Infrared Satellite Map


By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:47 a.m.
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Rains the past 24 hours.     Very welcome rains S.Plains. Illinois........Pll got a good one in S.IL.


By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:49 a.m.
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Missouri/Arkansas  to S.Plains in bad shape....bone dry(this is why they were signing in the welcome recent rains which are ending there).

Recent drying has extended into S.IA/IL/IN/OH. Eastern Cornbelt getting good rains the next day+

NE to s.MN/n. IA...........wet soils recently but drying out.


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.anom.daily.gif

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:50 a.m.
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You can go to this link to see rain totals from recent time periods:

https://water.weather.gov/precip/

Go to precipitation, then scroll down to pick a time frame. Hit states to get the borders to see locations better. Under products, you can hit "observed" or "Percent of normal"


By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:51 a.m.
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Below are rains compared to average of the last 7, 14, 30 and 60 days.

See how dry it's been in the Central Cornbelt for over a week and some negative departures for 14 and 30 days over the southern and eastern belt. This map is not updated for the last 24 hours at the moment.

https://www.atmos.illinois.edu/~snodgrss/Ag_Wx.html

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/7_day_percent.png


http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/14_day_percent.png

http://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/30_day_percent.pnghttp://weather.agribleservices.com/ahps/60_day_percent.png

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:51 a.m.
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Drought Monitor. This product is updated every Thursday.

            http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx    


                             

Drought Monitor for conus

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 9:57 a.m.
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Temperature Anomalies from GFS ensembles(fairly reliable product) going out 2 weeks. These maps show the Northern Hemisphere. The map of the US is front center. Look for the state borders in  white.


Today:  Cool in C Plains and Midwest.............. heat  backed up West.
NCEP Ensemble t = 024 hour forecast product



In 5+ days:

Heat West moves east to Plains/Upper Midwest/Northeast.  Below average temperatures shift to Southeast.
NCEP Ensemble t = 144 hour forecast product



In 10+ days   Hot West to Plains. Heat spills across the entire country? Temps uncertain in East.
NCEP Ensemble t = 240 hour forecast product


Day 15  Hot West/N-C Plains/Midwest to Northeast?.............Heat IS moving around. A bit below normal Southeast

.NCEP Ensemble t = 360 hour forecast product

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 10:01 a.m.
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Last 0Z run of Canadian ensembles.  Impressive heat ridge dominates much of the country but exactly where will it be centered?

Still several members that like the idea of a trough in the Northeast which splits the big ridges in the W.Atlantic and the one farther west in the US.


360h GZ 500 forecast valid on Jul 28, 2018 00UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 10:07 a.m.
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You want uncertainty late week 2?  I'll give you uncertainty.

The last 6Z operational GFS model shows an upper level trough in the Northeast with a surge of cooler air  but the previous 0z run, shown at the bottom showed something different..........an upper heat ridge dominating more of that area. 


              

      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif


      Previous GFS below

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht
      gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht
      gfs_namer_360_500_vort_ht_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick
      gfs_namer_360_1000_500_thick_s.gif   
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht
      gfs_namer_360_850_temp_ht_s.gif
By metmike - July 30, 2018, 10:10 a.m.
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The low skill, longer range CFS model for weeks 3 and 4. Looks similar to yesterday.

Cool in the Plains, then Midwest. Heat back out West.


Widespread Wet in the Plains eastward.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif

Precip below:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAprec.gif

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 1:09 p.m.
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Sneak peak at what the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts will show.

For the Cornbelt and Plains, above normal temperatures everywhere, warmest north.

Precipitation will be below normal in many spots, highest probabilities in the Plains and Southwestern Cornbelt:


Below is one of the tools that the NWS service uses to make their extended temperature outlooks. I would expand the reds much farther southeast compared to this  product and shrink the blue to very small part of the Southeast. 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif


Note how dry the precipitation outlook is below. Warm north and cool south is often a very dry pattern. Not only is there less temperature disparity with latitude, the lack of a heat ridge in the far Southeast  means less Gulf moisture getting pumped northward:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif


It actually looks like the W.Atlantic ridge will be pumping in the moisture to places in the Eastern part of the US. The southern US also looks wet>

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 1:51 p.m.
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Last set of guidance continues to really warm things up(slightly warmer).

12Z operation GFS:

gfs_namer_360_200_wnd_ht_s.gif


Total rains..................miss the entire Southwest Cornbelt: Bountiful in  the Eastern Cornbelt

gfs_namer_360_precip_ptot.gif

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 1:54 p.m.
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12Z Canadian ensembles. The MEAN has upper level ridging over the southern 2/3rds of the US.

    The individual members tell a different story.........with the center of the upper level HEAT ridge all over the place.

        

384h GZ 500 forecast valid on Aug 15, 2018 12 UTC

GZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecastGZ 500 forecast

Forecasts for the control (GEM 0) an

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 3:23 p.m.
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As expected, the NWS extended maps came out much warmer.  t


Hot in the Plains/Western Cornbelt.  Dry in the Plains and Southwestern Cornbelt.......shifting eastward.

Wet in the Eastern 1/3 of the country.


  



6-10 day Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability


  



8-14 day Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
 Precipitation Probability

  8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
By metmike - July 30, 2018, 3:31 p.m.
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Extreme weather days 3-7:

Excessive rain potential Midwest to East Coast as heat ridge starts building in and perturbations around the ridge fire up organized t-storm clusters.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/hazards_d3_7_contours.png

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 5:11 p.m.
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See tropical weather update here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/9160/