@kannbwx

Not terrible, not great, just kinda meh. There's some leeway on #soybeans given that 22/23 U.S. exports are seen down 5% YOY and down 10% 2YOY. But does Brazil grow that whopper crop we're expecting? That could reduce odds for an extended U.S. export season.

@kannbwx

Hopefully this meeting on Monday will clear up some of the questions surrounding #Mexico's impending ban of GMO #corn and the impact on U.S. exports. Market needs to know things like the intended coverage of the ban (i.e. to just human food, animal feed, both).

@kannbwx

#Mexico is such a huge buyer of U.S. #corn (usually the top), so losing a large chunk of that business would be detrimental to U.S. exporters. And #China's intentions are also very much in question. Current U.S. corn sales are only 30% of the year-ago so far.

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@kannbwx

U.S. #corn export inspections are very 2012-ish lately, tho they'll need to be more 2022-ish (at the very least) by early 2023 to have any shot at full-year targets. I don't have a #wheat inspection chart, it's time consuming, but I will make it if this tweet gets 100 likes 

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Karen Braun@kannbwx

#China was the top destination for U.S. #wheat exports in 1990 followed closely by the Soviet Union - both accounted for 13%. U.S. exports that year totaled 27.4 mmt, and the U.S. was the top wheat supplier at 30% of global exports. #Canada was No. 2 at 18%.

Nov 30

Fast forward 30 years. USA shipped 26.1 mmt of #wheat in 2020, not too far off 1990, but it was only about 14% of global exports and #2/#3 exporter. #Philippines was top destination. USA in 2022/23 is set for 10% of global exports, its smallest ever share, good for #4.

@kannbwx

U.S. net export sales last week were below expectations for #wheat and #soyoil, and on the low end of expectations for #corn, #soybeans & #soymeal. Soy sales are even with a year ago while corn sales are almost 50% lower now (#China is largely missing).

@kannbwx

Here's those charts of 20+ years of U.S. #corn & #wheat export sales to #Japan, which has secured just under 1.5 mmt of each as of Nov. 24. Corn sales really weakened in the second half of 21/22 and they have been weak ever since. Big drop-off in wheat too starting early 2022.

@kannbwx

#Japan has long been a top global importer of grains, and USA has recently been its top supplier of #corn, #wheat, and #rice. But U.S. corn sales to Japan for 2022/23 are at 20+ year lows, and wheat is nearly the same.  and  wheat has been more competitive lately.

@kannbwx

Now exclude direct gov't payments. Those have died down after peaking in 2020 due to the pandemic. In fact, those payments accounted for nearly half of net farm income in 2020 compared with 18% in 2021 and 10% in 2022, preventing a drop in net farm income from 2019 to 2020.

Karen Braun@kannbwx

USDA forecasts 2022 net U.S. farm income at $160.5B, up 14% from last year and the highest since 1973, inflation-adjusted. Net cash farm income ($187.9B) is inflation-adjusted the highest on record. Cash receipts for #corn, #wheat & #soybeans are set to rise $37B YOY, combined.