KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, November 29, 2022
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +7.3%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.5%)
9:00 AM ET. 3rd Quarter U.S. Quarterly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. September U.S. Monthly House Price Index
9:00 AM ET. September S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous -1.6%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +12.1%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous -1.6%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.1%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous -1.1%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +13.0%)
10:00 AM ET. November Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (previous 102.5)
Expectation Idx
Present Situation Idx (previous 138.9)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.8M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -0.4M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +1.1M)
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The Dow closed sharply lower on Monday as unrest in China over the nation's restrictive COVID controls weighed on global sentiment and Wall Street's return from a holiday weekend. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the January-October decline crossing at 34,893.55 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,305.82 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 34,386.51. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the January-October decline crossing at 34,893.55. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,305.82. Second support is the November 9th low crossing at 32,478.87.
The December NASDAQ 100 closed sharply lower on Monday. Today's low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,458.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,150.94 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,150.94. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 12,547.94. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,458.15. Second support is the November 10th low crossing at 10,808.00.
The December S&P 500 gapped down and closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December renews the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3913.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4024.30. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4136.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3913.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3805.30.
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December T-bonds closed up 03-pts. at 127-21.
December T-bonds closed slightly higher on Monday as it extended the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 131-15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 123-13 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 128-22. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 131-15. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at126-01. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124-12.
December T-notes closed up 10-pts. at 113.020.
December T-notes closed slightly higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's low, October's high crossing at 113.300 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 111,218 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 113.300. Second resistance is the 50% retracement of the August-October decline crossing at 115.142. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 111.218. Second support is November's low crossing at 109.105.
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January crude oil posted an upside reversal erasing early-session losses and closed modestly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $72.40 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $84.39 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $84.39. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $92.53. First support is today's low crossing at $73.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $72.40.
January heating oil closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends this month's decline, the 87% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $3.0325 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.4497 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.3553. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $4.4497. First support is today's low crossing at $3.1125. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November ally crossing at $3.0325.
January unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, September's low crossing at 2.1536. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4712 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4712. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $2.6990. First support is today's low crossing at $2.2196. Second support is September's low crossing at $2.1536.
January Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.749 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 8.449 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8.177. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-November decline crossing at 8.449. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 6.749. Second support is the November 16th low crossing at 6.132.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's nights session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold, diverging and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 107.714 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends the decline off September's high, the 62% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $103.643 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.714. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.021. First support is the November 15th low crossing at $104.800. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $103.643.
The March Euro posted a key reversal down on Monday marking a possible double top with the November 15th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI overbought, diverging and are poised to turn neutral to bearish with additional weakness that would signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.02701 would signal that a double top has been posted with today's high. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.07982 is the next upside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1.05800. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.07982 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02701. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.00743.
The March British Pound closed lower on Monday as it consolidates some of the rally off September's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, August's high crossing at 1.2324 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1745 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at 1.2176. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.2324. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1745. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1448.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's rally, August's high crossing at 1.08700 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04884 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the November 15th high crossing at 1.08005. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.08700. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04884. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.03591.
The March Canadian Dollar closed sharply lower on Monday as it extends the decline off November's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Today's close below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.54 signals that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at 77.16 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. Second resistance is September's high crossing at 77.16. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 73.83. Second support is the November 3rd low crossing at 72.58.
The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Wednesday as it extend the rally off last-Monday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071185 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.073926 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.073926. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.074398. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071185. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.070419.
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February gold closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1736.80 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $1836.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $1806.00. Second resistance is August's high $1836.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1736.80. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1705.40.
March silver closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 20.790 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 23.503 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 22.500. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 22.818. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 20.790. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 20.103.
March copper closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off November's high.The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5026 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0343 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.9470. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0343. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5026. Second support is October's low crossing at 3.2980.
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March Corn closed unchanged at $6.71 1/4.
March corn closed unchanged on Monday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.82 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off October's high, the August 18th low crossing at $6.11 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.82 3/4. Second resistance is the October 31st high crossing at $7.04 3/4. First support is the November 15th low crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.11 1/2.
March wheat closed down $0.16 1/4-cents at $7.80 3/4.
March wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, August's low crossing at $7.60 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.70 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.40. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.70 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $7.73 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $7.60 1/4.
March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.17 at $8.95.
March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off October's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the September 's low crossing at $8.65 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.49 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.49 1/4. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $9.87 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $8.88. Second support is September's low crossing at $8.65 1/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.09 3/4-cents at $9.39 3/4.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Monday as it posted a new low for the month.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the September 19th low crossing at $9.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.66 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.66 1/4. Second resistance is the November 15th high crossing at $9.91 1/4. First support is today's low crossing at $9.37. Second support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.15.
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January soybeans closed up $0.20 1/2-cents at $14.63 3/4.
January soybeans posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $14.76 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the November 17th low crossing at $14.06 3/4 would renew the decline off November's high. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $14.76 3/4. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.15 1/2. First support is the November 17th low crossing at $14.06 3/4. Second support is the October 28th low crossing at $13.80 1/2.
January soybean meal closed up $5.40 at $411.70.
January soybean meal posted a key reversal up as it closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends today's rally, the November 9th high crossing at $416.60 is the next upside target. If January renews the decline off October's high, the October 19th low crossing at $395.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 9th high crossing at $416.60. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $430.00. First support is the November 15th low crossing at $399.00. Second support is the October 19th low crossing at $395.00.
January soybean oil closed up 141-pts. At 73.12.
January soybean oil a key reversal up as it closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January renews the rally off September's low, June's high crossing at 78.78 is the next upside target. If January renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.13 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 75.94. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 78.78. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.13. Second support is the October 13th crossing at 62.40.
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February hogs closed down $3.75 at $84.75.
February hogs closed sharply lower on Monday and closed below the 50-day moving average crossing at $86.49 confirm that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends today's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October rally crossing at $84.12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $89.98 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $91.35 Second resistance is October's high crossing at $91.80. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $92.58. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October rally crossing at $84.12. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October rally crossing at $82.29.
February cattle closed down $0.40 at $156.33.
February cattle closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February renews the rally off September's low, monthly resistance crossing at $159.54 is the next upside target. First resistance is October's high crossing at $154.25. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $159.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.84. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $146.72.
January Feeder cattle closed down $1.40 at $176.90.
January Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off last-Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off last-Monday's high, the November 15th low crossing at $176.33 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $179.49 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $181.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $184.56. First support is the November 15th low crossing at $176.33. Second support is October's low crossing at $172.10.
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March coffee closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.51 would signal that a low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $16.51. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $17.82. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $13.04.
March cocoa closed slightly lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.79 is the next downside target. Closes above today's high crossing at 24.94 would signal that a low has been posted.
March sugar closed slightly higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 19.31 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, April's high crossing at 20.63 is the next upside target.
March cotton closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 70.10 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 97.77 is the next upside target.
Thanks tallpine!
Natural gas weather turning bullish. December contract expired today.
Weather for beans still bullish in Argentina.