INO Morning Market Commentary
2 responses | 0 likes
Started by tallpine - Dec. 1, 2022, 7:29 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, December 1, 2022   

 



 

 

7:30 AM ET. November Challenger Job-Cut Report

 

                       Job Cuts, M/M% (previous +13%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. October Personal Income & Outlays

 

                       Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.4%)

 

                       Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.8%; previous +0.6%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.5%)

 

                       PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (expected +5.0%; previous +5.1%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 235K; previous 240K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +17K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1551000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +48K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. November US Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (expected 47.6; previous 50.4)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place

 

                       New Construction (expected -0.2%; previous +0.2%)

 

                       Residential Construction

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November ISM Report On Business Manufacturing PMI

 

                       Manufacturing PMI (expected 49.8; previous 50.2)

 

                       Prices Idx (previous 46.6)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 50.0)

 

                       Inventories (previous 52.5)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous 49.2)

 

                       Production Idx (previous 52.3)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3564B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -80B)

 

                        

 

11:00 AM ET. November Global Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 49.4)

 



 

 

12:00 PM ET. November Monthly U.S. Retail Chain Store Sales Index

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:00 PM ET. November Domestic Auto Industry Sales

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, December 2, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November U.S. Employment Report

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls (expected +200K; previous +261K)

 

                       Unemployment Rate (expected 3.7%; previous 3.7%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings (USD) (previous 32.58)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings-Net Chg (USD) (previous +0.12)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.37%)

 

                       Avg Hourly Earnings, Y/Y% (expected +4.6%; previous +4.73%)

 

                       Overall Workweek (previous 34.5)

 

                       Overall Workweek Net Chg (previous +0)

 

                       Government Payrolls (previous +28K)

 

                       Private Payroll (previous +233K)

 

                       Participation Rate (previous 62.2%)

 

                       Non-Farm Payrolls Bench Net Chg

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's huge rally. Overnight tradingsets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,618.87 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,497.74 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,229.32. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,618.87. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,497.74. Second support is the November 9th low crossing at 10,932.75.



The March S&P 500 was steady to lower overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the October 13th low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4153.96 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3975.93 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 4153.96. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 4194.25. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3975.93. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3846.61. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 130-25 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-08 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at 129-01. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 130-25. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126-22. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 124-08.



March T-notes were higher overnight as they extend the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.090 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.114 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 114.060. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.090. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 112.114. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 111.291. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Januarycrude oil was higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.59 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $72.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $83.59. Second resistance is the November 11th high crossing at $89.20. First support is Monday's low crossing at $73.60. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $72.40.



January heating oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4225 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $3.0325 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.4069. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.4225. First support is the 75% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $3.1276. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the September-November rally crossing at $3.0325.  



January unleaded gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the rally off Monday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4448 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If January renews this month's decline, September's low crossing at $2.1536 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.4212. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.4448. First support is Monday's low crossing at $2.2196. Second support is September's low crossing at $2.1536.



January natural gas was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.825 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January resumes the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 8.449 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 8.177. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 8.449. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.825. Second support is the November 16th low crossing at 6.132.  



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The December Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If December renews the decline off September's high, the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650 is the next downside target. Closes above the November 21st high crossing at $107.895 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $107.243. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $110.136. First support is the November 15th low crossing at $105.155. Second support is the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $104.650.



The December Euro was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at $1.07137 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02732 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $1.05135. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.07137. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.02732. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1.00277.   



The December British Pound was higher overnight as it extends the rally off September's low. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off September's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1799 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 1.2169. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2312. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.1799. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1468.    



The December Swiss Franc was slightly lower in late-overnight trading and sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04560 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If December renews the rally off the November 21st low, November's high crossing at 1.07275 is the next upside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 1.07275. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 1.07550. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.04560. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.02632.

 

The December Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $75.11 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. Multiple closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.66 would open the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at $72.44. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $75.11. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.63. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.66. Second support is November's low crossing at $72.44. 



The December Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it has renewed the rally off October's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off October's, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.074751 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071044 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 0.073760. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.074751. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.071044. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.069702. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Februarygold was sharply higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $1836.70 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at $1733.50 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is November's high crossing at $1806.00. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1836.70. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $1733.50. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1710.50.



March silver was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $23.503 is the next upside target. Closes below the November 21st low crossing at $20.790 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $22.362. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $23.503. First support is the November 21st low crossing at $20.790. Second support the 50-day moving average crossing at $20.244.   



March copper was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. The low-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 3.9470 is the next upside target. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5162 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 3.7995. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 3.9470. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5162. Second support is the October 31st low crossing at 3.3480.  



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off the October 31st high, the August 18th low crossing at $6.11 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.81 1/4 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.81 1/4. Second resistance is the October 31st high crossing at $7.04 3/4. First support is the November 15th low crossing at $6.53 1/2. Second support is the August 18th low crossing at $6.11 1/2. 



March wheat was lower overnight following a two-day bounce off Monday's low. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at $7.60 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.24 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.24. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.64. First support is Monday's low crossing at $7.73 1/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $7.60 1/4.   



March Kansas City wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, September's low crossing at $8.65 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.46 1/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.25 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.46 1/4. First support is Tuesday's low crossing at $8.84 1/4. Second support is September's low crossing at $8.65 1/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight as it extends the July-November trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off November's high, the September 19th low crossing at $9.15 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.65 1/2 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.65 1/2. Second resistance is the November 15th high crossing at $9.91 1/4. First support is the September 19th low crossing at $9.15. Second support is the November 7th low crossing at $8.93. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



January soybeans was lower overnight as it erased most of Wednesday's gains. Overnight weakness sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that Wednesday's stead of resistance marked by the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4 might have marked a short-term top. If January extends the rally off October's low, the September 21st high crossing at $14.93 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.18 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the September-October decline crossing at $14.55 1/4. Second resistance is the September 21st high crossing at $14.93 1/2. First support is the November 17th low crossing at $14.06 3/4. Second support is the October 26th low crossing at $13.80 1/2.  

 

January soybean meal was higher overnight as it extends Wednesday's huge rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, October's high crossing at $430.00 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at $401.40 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at $420.50. Second resistance is October's high crossing at $430.00. First support is Monday's low crossing at $401.40. Second support is November's low crossing at $394.50.     



January soybean oil was sharply lower overnight and spiked below the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.54 as it renewed the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 65.17 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 72.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 74.46. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.94. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 68.54. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 65.17.   


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed up $1.48 at $85.63. 



February hogs posted a key reversal up and closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends this week's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October rally crossing at $82.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.33 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $86.20 Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.33. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October rally crossing at $84.12. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October rally crossing at $82.29.



February cattle closed up $0.85 at $155.65. 



February cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Wednesday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off September's low, monthly resistance crossing at $159.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.84 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is October's high crossing at $154.25. Second resistance is monthly resistance crossing at $159.54. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $153.84. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $146.72. 



January Feeder cattle closed up $2.73 at $180.73. 



January Feeder cattle closed sharply higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Monday's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends today's rally, November's high crossing at $183.08 is the next upside target. If January renews the decline off November's high, the November 15th low crossing at $176.33 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $181.50. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $184.56. First support is the November 15th low crossing at $176.33. Second support is October's low crossing at $172.10.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off last-week's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at $17.82 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off August's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at $17.82. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $18.51. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $13.04.                   



March cocoa closed higher on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, November's high crossing at 25.77 is the next upside target. If March renews this month's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 23.84 is the next downside target.      



March sugar closed higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 19.05 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, April's high crossing at 20.63 is the next upside target. 



March cotton closed limit up on Wednesday as it consolidates some of the decline off November's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the reaction high crossing at 97.77 is the next upside target. If March extends the decline off November's high, October's low crossing at 70.10 is the next downside target.  

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 1, 2022, 7:53 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine.

beans getting pressure from increase in rains? And encountering chart selling  resistance?

EIA at 9-30 for NG.

By metmike - Dec. 1, 2022, 11:59 a.m.
Like Reply

          

                           https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/90664/#91186  

                By metmike - Dec. 1, 2022, 11:38 a.m.            

            

                           

Thanks Jim!

 https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/91180/#91182

           By metmike - Dec. 1, 2022, 7:53 a.m.            

            beans getting pressure from increase in rains? And encountering chart selling  resistance?

+++++++++++++++++++

Yep.......the increase in rains in the forecast in N.Argentina!!!! 

Note the light blue has shifted much farther west into N.Argentina, almost doubling previous rain forecasts. This was the GFS from 4 hours ago when beans were down only slightly. Beans -37c now.

                  

All the bean posts:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/90664/