Crude
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Started by metmike - July 30, 2018, 11:42 a.m.

Crude oil is up sharply this morning +1.30 for CLU right at $70.


Here's the latest news from Reuters:

OPEC July oil output hits 2018 peak, but outages weigh: Reuters survey


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-survey/opec-july-oil-output-hits-2018-peak-but-outages-weigh-reuters-survey-idUSKBN1KK1P4

"The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 32.64 million barrels per day in July, the survey on Monday found, up 70,000 bpd from June’s revised level and the highest this year with Congo added. 

OPEC and allies agreed last month to boost supply as U.S. President Donald Trump urged producers to offset losses caused by new U.S. sanctions on Iran and to dampen prices LCOc1, which this year hit $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014. 

On June 22-23, OPEC, Russia and other non-members agreed to return to 100 percent compliance with oil output cuts that began in January 2017, after months of underproduction in Venezuela and elsewhere pushed adherence above 160 percent."

"Saudi Arabia said the decision would translate into an output rise of about 1 million bpd.  

OPEC’s collective adherence with supply targets has slipped to 111 percent in July from a revised 116 percent in June, the survey found, meaning it is still cutting more than agreed."

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Re: Crude
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By metmike - July 30, 2018, 11:44 a.m.
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Crude still in an uptrend, up over $1at the moment

Crude 3 month chart

                   


Crude1year chart below


                   


Crude 5 year chart below

                   


Crude10 year chart below

               

                   
Re: Re: Crude
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By metmike - July 30, 2018, 11:44 a.m.
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Unleaded Gasoline Price Charts: Uptrend on longer term price chart......bull flag short term(or top?)

3 month                 

                   


1 Year                

                   


5 year........are we headed back to the highs?

                   


10 Year                

                   
By metmike - July 30, 2018, 11:46 a.m.
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 Here are the gas prices at the pump:

USA National Gas Price Heat Map from GasBuddy:

https://www.gasbuddy.com/GasPriceMap?z=4




                                    


            

                

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 11:54 a.m.
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Weekly US ending stocks of crude oil. Peaked in March 2017 and have been falling sharply since then. Now the lowest in 3.5 years:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRSTUS1&f=W

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 11:58 a.m.
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Weekly ending stocks for unleaded gasoline. Barely peaked in Feb 2017 but have not dropped much...........similar this month to July 2017...still fairly high:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGTSTUS1&f=W

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 12:03 p.m.
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Weekly US ending stocks for distillate fuel oil(heating oil-especially used in the Northeast). Peaked in Feb 2017 and have PLUNGED to the lowest in 4 years and almost the lowest in 10 years:


https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W

By Jim_M - July 30, 2018, 1:58 p.m.
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Even if crude stays at the price it is at, a long roll will net you about $2k a month on 1 contract.

By metmike - July 30, 2018, 2:18 p.m.
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Good point Jim!

Crude for the front month is priced higher than back months...........this is an inverted price structure and considered bullish. Contango (sounds like a Spanish dance).

Normal backwardation is when prices are higher in the back months. 

Contango and Normal Backwardation


https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/contango_backwardation.asp

  • Contango is when the futures price is above the expected future spot price. Because the futures price must converge on the expected future spot price, contango implies futures prices are falling over time as new information brings them into line with the expected future spot price.
  • Normal backwardation is when the futures price is below the expected future spot price. This is desirable for speculators who are net long in their positions: they want the futures price to increase. So, normal backwardation is when the futures prices are increasing.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXhQNRsH3uc


By metmike - July 31, 2018, 11:45 a.m.
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Crude oil down around $1 today.......around $69 at the moment.

By metmike - Aug. 1, 2018, 2:04 p.m.
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Crude down more than another $1 at the moment, below $68.

From Reuters:

U.S. crude inventories rise unexpectedly as exports drop: EIA

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-eia/us-crude-inventories-rise-unexpectedly-as-exports-drop-eia-idUSKBN1KM5AP


“Despite a rise in refinery runs, a cratering in crude exports last week yielded a whopping crude build of 5.6 million barrels on the Gulf Coast - leading to a solid build of 3.8 million barrels for total U.S. stocks,” said Matt Smith, director of commodities research at ClipperData."

"Gasoline stocks USOILG=ECI fell 2.5 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 1.3 million-barrel drop."

"Distillate stockpiles USOILD=ECI, which include diesel and heating oil, rose 3 million barrels, versus expectations for a 264,000-barrel increase, the data showed."

“Despite the crude oil inventory rise, the report is supportive of prices. Demand for crude oil from refiners is very high, and gasoline demand remains sky-high, as well,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital Management in New York. "

“U.S. oil production growth appears to have stalled out and actually declined a fair amount on the week.”