INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 12, 2022, 7:25 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Monday, December 12, 2022   

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. November Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts & Outlays of the U.S. Govt

 



 

 

Tuesday, December 13, 2022   

 



 

 

6:00 AM ET. November NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

 

                       Small Business Idx (previous 91.3)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November Real Earnings

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November CPI

 

                       CPI, M/M% (previous +0.4%)

 

                       Core CPI, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 

                       Energy Idx, M/M% (previous +1.8%)

 

                       Food Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)

 

                       Real Avg Wkly Pay-Infla Adj, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 

                       CPI, Y/Y% (previous +7.7%)

 

                       Core Annual, Y/Y% (previous +6.3%)

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M%

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +5.7%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

 

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 40.4)

 

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 34.3)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -6.4M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +5.9M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +3.6M)

 

  N/A               U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting

 



 

 

Wednesday, December 14, 2022  

 



 

 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

 

                       Composite Idx (previous 204.2)

 

                       Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -1.9%)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA (previous 175.5)

 

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -3.0%)

 

                       Refinance Idx (previous 340.8)

 

                       Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +4.7%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November Import & Export Price Indexes

 

                       Import Prices (previous -0.2%)

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous -0.2%)

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -1.2%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 413.898M)

 

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -5.186M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 219.087M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +5.319M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 118.807M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +6.159M)

 

                       Refinery Usage (previous 95.5%)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.626M)

 

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -0.091M)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET Federal Reserve economic projections

 

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2022 (previous 4.4%)

 

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2023 (previous 4.6%)

 

                       Median Fed Funds Rate - 2024 (previous 3.9%)

 



 

 

2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision

 

                       Federal Funds Rate

 

                       Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)

 

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 4.00)

 

                       Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 3.75)

 

                       FOMC Vote For Action (previous 12)

 

                       FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)

 

                       Discount Rate (previous 4.00)

 

                       Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.75)

 

                       Discount Rate-Range High

 

                       Discount Rate-Range Low

 



 

 

Thursday, December 15, 2022  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Empire State Manufacturing Survey

 

                       Mfg Idx (previous 4.5)

 

                       Employment Idx (previous 12.2)

 

                       New Orders Idx (previous -3.3)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 27.2)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. December Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 

                       Business Activity (previous -19.4)

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 35.3)

 

                       Employment (previous 7.1)

 

                       New Orders (previous -16.2)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 34.6)

 

                       Delivery Times (previous -8.8)

 

                       Inventories (previous -6.5)

 

                       Shipments (previous 7.0)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. November Advance Monthly Sales for Retail & Food Services

 

                       Overall Sales-SA, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto, M/M% (previous +1.3%)

 

                       Sales, Ex-Auto & Gas, M/M% (previous +0.9%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (previous 230K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +4K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1671000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +62K)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

9:15 AM ET. November Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization

 

                       Industrial Production, M/M% (previous -0.1%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization % (previous 79.9%)

 

                       Capacity Utilization, Net Chg (Pts) (previous -0.2)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. October Manufacturing & Trade: Inventories & Sales

 

                       Total Inventories (previous +0.4%)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 3462B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -21B)

 

                        

 

4:00 PM ET. October Treasury International Capital Data

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

  N/A               ISM Semiannual Report On Business Economic Forecast

 



 

 

Friday, December 16, 2022  

 



 

 

9:45 AM ET. December US Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

                       PMI, Mfg (previous 47.6)

 



 

 

9:45 PM ET. December US Flash Services PMI

 

                       PMI, Services (previous 46.1)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November State Employment and Unemployment

 



 

 

N/A               Latest deadline for new funding deal to avert U.S. Govt. shutdown

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,853.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,545.48 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,229.32. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 12,618.87. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,545.48. Second support is the November 9th low crossing at 10,932.75.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3887.53 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 4025.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October declinecrossing at 4153.96. Second resistance is the September 13th high crossing at 4194.25. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3887.53. Second support is the November 9th low crossing at 3782.75. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates a two-day correction off last-Wednesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-23 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 132-00. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 133-30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 127-23. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 124-16.  



March T-notes were higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.184 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.232 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.090. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.232. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.184. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.065. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Januarycrude oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline November's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $63.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.33 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $78.33. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $82.92. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $70.08. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $63.80.



January heating oil is working on an inside day but was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-trading days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.6219 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1898 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.0238. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1898. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $2.7647. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.6219.  



January unleaded gas was steady to lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $1.9894 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2881 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $2.1862. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2881. First support is the overnight low crossing at $2.0204. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $1.9894.



January natural gas gapped up and was sharply higher overnight as it extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a sharply higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off last-Tuesday's low, the August-November downtrend line crossing near 7.816 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 6.315 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 7.058. Second resistance is the August-November downtrend line crossing near 7.816. First support is the overnight gap crossing at 6.391. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 5.500. 



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off September's high, the June 27th low crossing at $102.883 is the next downside target. Closes above the November 30th high crossing at $106.775 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $106.775. Second resistance is the November 21st high crossing at $107.500. First support is the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at $103.643. Second support is the June 27th low crossing at $102.883.



The March Euro was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remains neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at $1.08062 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05061 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1.06745. Second resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.08062. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.05061. Second support is the November 21st low crossing at $1.03165.  



The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the June 16th high crossing at 1.2424 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2087 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2318. Second resistance is the June 16th high crossing at 1.2424. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2087. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1673.    



The March Swiss Franc was higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the November 21st low, August's high crossing at 1.08700 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07272 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is August's high crossing at 1.08700. Second resistance is the March  30th high crossing at 1.10880. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07272. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.06060.

 

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, November's low crossing at $72.44 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Monday's high crossing at $74.82 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $74.82. Second resistance is the November 25th high crossing at $75.16. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $73.12. Second support is November's low crossing at $72.58.



The March Japanese Yen was steady to slightly lower overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.076735 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073367 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the December 2nd high crossing at 0.075820. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.076735. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.073367. Second support is the November 21's low crossing at 0.071410. 

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Februarygold was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off November's low, August's high crossing at $1836.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1782.10 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $1822.90. Second resistance is August's high crossing at $1836.70. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1782.10. Second support is the November 23rd low crossing at $1733.50.



March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.110 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $23.503. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.110. Second support is the November 21st low crossing at $20.790.    



March copper was lower overnight. The mid-range overnight trade sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the November 28th low, November's high crossing at 3.9470 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7463 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5860 is the next downside target. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.9470. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0343. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.7464. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.5860.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was higher overnight as it extends extends the rally off last-Wednesday's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.58 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off the October 31st high, the 62% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $6.23 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.49 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.58. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at $6.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the July-October rally crossing at $6.23.



March wheat was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off October's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.36 1/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.87 3/4 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.87 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.41 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.24 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.36 1/4.  



March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at $8.11 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.92 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $8.58 3/4. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.92 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $8.21 3/4. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.11 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.37 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $9.15 1/2. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $9.37 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $8.90. Second support is August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4. 



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



January soybeans were sharply lower overnight due to profit taking as it consolidates some of its recent gains that were triggered by bearish weather forecast for some of Brazil's soybean growing regions. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.48 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If January extends the rally off October's low, September's high crossing at $15.12 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the September 21st high crossing at $14.93 1/2. Second resistance is September's high crossing at $15.12 1/4. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $14.48. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.24 1/4.  

 

January soybean meal was sharply lower due to profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off November's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally off November's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $478.60 is the next upside target is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at $441.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $474.40. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $478.60. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at $441.20. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $423.60.     



January soybean oil was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If January extends the decline off November's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 57.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.34 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 64.34. Second resistance is the December 2nd gap crossing at 67.38. First support is the overnight low crossing at 58.94. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November rally crossing at 57.11.   


LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 



February hogs closed down $0.68 at $84.03. 



February hogs posted an inside day with a lower close on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 62% retracement level of the October rally crossing at $82.29 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.12 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $86.64 Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $88.12. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $83.10. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October rally crossing at $82.29.



February cattle closed up $1.63 at $155.55. 



February cattle closed sharply higher on Friday and above the 10-day moving average crossing at $154.89 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at $152.28 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $156.38. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $156.95. First support is November's low crossing at $152.28. Second support is the October 14th low crossing at $146.72. 



January Feeder cattle closed up $0.40 at $183.88. 



January Feeder cattle closed higher on Friday and the mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Monday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If January extends the rally last-week's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $187.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $179.34 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $184.56. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $187.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $180.39. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $179.34.      



FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 



March coffee closed lower on Friday as it extended the decline off last-Thursday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off August's high, November's low crossing at $15.41 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off November's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.74 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $17.44. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $17.74. First support is November's low crossing at $15.41. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $14.74. 



March cocoa posted a huge downside reversal as it closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off the November 23rd low, November's high crossing at 25.77 is the next upside target. Closes below Monday's low crossing at 24.70 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.        



March sugar closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at 19.94 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. Closes below last-Monday's low crossing at 19.05 would renew the decline off November's high while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.  



March cotton closed lower on Friday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends today's decline, the November 28th low crossing at 77.50 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's low, November's high crossing at 89.92 is the next upside target.   

Comments
By metmike - Dec. 12, 2022, 12:05 p.m.
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Thanks tallpine!


Extreme rains in coffee country(10"+) in less than 2 weeks have coffee flying.


Argentina still doesn't have much rain.


NG is extremely bullish from frigid weather in the US the 2nd half of December which is also threatening the Winter Wheat crop.

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability


6z GEFS for South America below. Bright reds in coffee country.