KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.8%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)
8:30 AM ET. June Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.8%)
9:00 AM ET. May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +1%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.4%)
9:45 AM ET. July ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 62.3; previous 64.1)
10:00 AM ET. July Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (expected 125.5; previous 126.4)
Expectation Idx (previous 103.2)
Present Situation Idx (previous 161.1)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.3M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes ""
The September NASDAQ 100 closed lower on Monday as it tested key support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 7197.74. Technology stocks were by far the weakest performing sector of the day, down 1.6%. Facebook fell about 4%, with that move pushing shares into bear market territory. It has lost more than 20% from a recent peak hit on July 25. Google-parent Alphabet Inc. has declined nearly 2%. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7197.72 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of June's low crossing at 6956.00. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7380.18 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance is unknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7197.66. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.
The September S&P 500 closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 2766.19 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September extends this summer's rally, January's high crossing at 2885.00 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2846.31. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2793.19. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2766.19.
The Dow closed lower on Monday despite a positive earnings report from Caterpillar. Concerns that Caterpillar would be hurt by the recent trade tariffs and an expanding trade war were also quelled. Caterpillar indicated that for the second half of the year, that tariff-related costs would be $100 million to $200 million, but the company still raised its full-year profit outlooks as it expects a mid-year price increase to offset most of the costs. Despite Caterpillar's positive earnings report, the Dow came under pressure from sharp losses in the technology sector as Facebook Inc. fell into bear-market territory following its disappointing earnings last week.The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends the rally off June's low, February's high crossing at 25,800.35 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,958.25 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at 25,587.24. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 25,800.35. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 24,958.09. Second support is June's low crossing at 23,997.21.
INTEREST RATES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=interest ""
September T-bonds closed down 11/32's at 142-19.
September T-bonds closed lower on Monday as it extends the decline off July's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 142-01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-16 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-16. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.
September T-notes closed down 20-points at 119-120.
September T-notes closed lower on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 118.295 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.313 would confirm that a low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 121.030. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.
ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""
September crude oil closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Today's close above the 20-day moving average crossing at 69.56 confirms that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional short-term gains. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 72.98. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2014-2016-decline crossing at 77.18.First support is July's low crossing at 66.29. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99.
September heating oil closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 223.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 213.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.73. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 213.08. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59.
September unleaded gas closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 215.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 206.06 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 224.67. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.
September Henry natural gas closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.860 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.739 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.860. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 2.992. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.739. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.671.
CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""
The September Dollar closed lower on Monday as it extended a six-day trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.08 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low,weekly resistance crossing at 97.70 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 95.44. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.08. Second support is June's low crossing at 92.76.
The September Euro closed lower on Monday while extending the May-July-trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If September renews the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 119.40 is the next upside target. If September extends the decline off last-week's high, June's low crossing at 115.82 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 117.67. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 119.40. First support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 112.78.
The September British Pound closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish hinting that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3301 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off April's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2857 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3301. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. First support is July's low crossing at 1.2988. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2857.
The September Swiss Franc closed higher on Monday and above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.0149 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. If September extends today's rally, June's high crossing at 1.0302 is a potential upside target. If September resumes the decline off February's high, the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.
The September Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, June's high crossing at 77.94 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.19 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is today's high crossing at 77.02. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is July's low crossing at 75.31. Second support is June's low crossing at 74.80.
The September Japanese Yen posted an inside day with a lower close on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday’s night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9093 is the next upside target. If September renews the decline off May's high, the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9093. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9198. First support is July's low crossing at 0.8867. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805.
PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""
October gold closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1242.70 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1242.70. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1266.90. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1217.90. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90.
September silver closed higher due to short covering on Monday. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.737 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 15.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.737. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 16.260. First support is July's low crossing at 15.185. Second support is weekly support crossing at 15.145.
September copper closed lower on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If September extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 299.80 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 299.80.First support is July's low crossing at 267.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.
GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
December Corn closed up 5-cents at 3.81 1/4.
December corn closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 1/4 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.80 1/2. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.80 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.65 1/4. Second support is July's low crossing at 3.50 1/4.
December wheat closed up 14 3/4-cents at 5.64 3/4.
December wheat closed higher on Monday as it extended the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.75 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.23 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is June's high crossing at 5.75 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 5.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.36 1/2. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.23.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 15 1/4-cents at 5.74 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.97 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27 1/2 would confirms that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.97 3/4. First support is 50-day moving average crossing at 5.47. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 9 1/4-cents at 6.15 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Monday.The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.32 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.67 1/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.32 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.91 1/2. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.80.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans closed up 6 3/4-cents at 8.92.
November soybeans closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off July's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the aforementioned rally, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.65 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 9.30 1/2. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.65 1/2. Second support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4.
December soybean meal closed up $3.20 at 334.30.
December soybean meal closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 338.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December resumes the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 338.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 341.70. First support is July's low crossing at 321.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40.
December soybean oil closed down 10-points. At 28.92.
December soybean oil closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.12 is the next upside target. If December renews the decline off May's high, weekly support crossing at 26.99 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 29.16. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.12. First support is July's low crossing at 27.95. Second support is weekly support crossing at 26.99.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $0.35 at $51.23.
October hogs closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 46.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.14. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.34. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 50.47. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.
October cattle closed down $0.67 at 109.80.
October cattle close lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 111.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 105.13. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.80 at $151.50.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.47 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 154.93. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.47. Second support is July's low crossing at 147.82.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Monday while extending the decline off June's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 92.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks Tallpine!