INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Dec. 28, 2022, 7:35 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Wednesday, December 28, 2022  

 



 

 

8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

 

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +6.4%)

 

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +7.6%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. December Richmond Fed Business Activity Survey

 

                       Mfg Idx (expected -10; previous -9)

 

                       Shipments Idx (previous -8)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. November Pending Home Sales Index

 

                       Pending Home Sales (previous 77.1)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx, M/M% (expected -1.8%; previous -4.6%)

 

                       Pending Home Sales Idx , Y/Y% (previous -37.0%)

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

 

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.1M)

 

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +4.5M)

 

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous +0.8M)

 


The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 10,746.75 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,563.05 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 11,234.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 11,563.05. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 10,870.50. Second support is November's low crossing at 10,746.75.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly higher overnight as it the trading range of the past seven-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 3735.00 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 3961.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3931.11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3961.95. First support is the November 9th low crossing at 3782.75. Second support is November's low crossing at 3735.00. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's huge decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-09 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 123-06. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-09 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-09. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 132-15. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 125-09. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 123-06.  



March T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some of this month's decline but remain below broken support marked by the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.191. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 111.174 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.232 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 115.090. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 116.232. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 112.087. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 111.174. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Februarycrude oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's gains. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, December's high crossing at $83.27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.53 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $80.64. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $83.27. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $76.53. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $73.40.  



February heating oil was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Tuesday's rally but remains above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.2413. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the November 15th high crossing at $3.4722 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0725 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $3.3543. Second resistance is the November 15th high crossing at $3.4722. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.0725. Second support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $2.9682.    



February unleaded gas was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off December's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off December's low, the November 14th high  crossing at $2.5783 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2258 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's highcrossing at $2.4241. Second resistance is the November 14th high crossing at $2.5783. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.2258. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $2.1157.  



February natural gas was lower overnight as it extends the decline off November's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the decline off November's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4.332 is the next downside target, Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 6.149 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.519. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.816. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4.779. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 4.332. 



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.288 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.331 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $104.288. Second resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $106.775. First support is the December 15th low crossing at $102.875. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $101.331.



The March Euro was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06434 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off September's low, the March 31st high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2021-2022 crossing at $1.08062. Second resistance is the March 31st high crossing at $1.09680. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.06434. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at $1.03715.  



The March British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1881 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2770 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2477. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.2770. First support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.1937. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.1881.    



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08242 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March extends the rally off the November 21st low, the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target. First resistance is December's high crossing at 1.09665. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.08242. Second support is the November 30th low crossing at 1.06060.

 

The March Canadian Dollar was slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.95 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off November's high, November's low crossing at $72.58 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $73.95. Second resistance is the December 5th high crossing at $74.82. First support is the December 20th low crossing at $73.04. Second support is November low crossing at $72.58.



The March Japanese Yen was lower overnight as it extends the decline off last-Tuesday's. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.07480 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off October's, the August high crossing at 0.078135 is the next upside target. First resistance is the the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 0.076735. Second resistance is the August high crossing at 0.078135. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.07480. Second support is the December 15th low crossing at 0.073210.  

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



PRECIOUS METALS: Februarygold was lower overnight as it extends this month's back and fill sideways trading pattern. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the December 15th low crossing at $1782.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 50% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1861.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $1841.90. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1861.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1803.20. Second support is the December 15th low crossing at $1782.00.



March silver was lower overnight consolidating some of Tuesday's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.407 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off October's low, the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at $25.938. First support the 20-day moving average crossing at $23.407. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at $22.735.    



March copper was slightly higher overnight while extending this month's trading range. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off the November 28th low, the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0343 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.7230 would mark a likely downside breakout of the aforementioned trading range. First resistance is November's high crossing at 3.9470. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0343. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 3.7230. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.6705.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was steady to fractionally lower overnight and sets the stage for quiet opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, October's downtrend line crossing near $6.81 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.54 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is October's downtrend line crossing near $6.81 3/4. Second resistance is the October 31st high crossing at $7.04 3/4. First support is is the 20-day moving average crossing at $6.54. Second support is the December 19th low crossing at $6.44.  



March wheat was steady to fractionally lower overnight and sets the stage for a mostly steady opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off December's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.09 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $7.57 3/4 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If March renews the decline off October's high, the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.36 1/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the November 30th high crossing at $7.99 1/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.09 1/2. First support is the 75% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $7.24 1/4. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $6.36 1/4.  



March Kansas City wheat was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.05 is the next upside target. If March resumes the decline off October's high, August's low crossing at $8.11 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $8.94 3/4. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.05. First support is the December 19th low crossing at $8.30 3/4. Second support is the December 6th low crossing at $8.21 3/4.



March Minneapolis wheat was lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.44 1/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. If March renews the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.44 1/4. Second resistance is the November 15th high crossing at $9.91 1/4. First support is the December 19th low crossing at $9.00 3/4. Second support is the December 6th low crossing at $8.90.  



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



March soybeans were higher overnight and is poised for an upside breakout of this month's trading range. Overnight strength sets the stage for a higher opening as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.37 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Tuesday's low crossing at $14.62 1/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $15.22 3/4. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.37 1/2. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at $14.62 1/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.49 3/4.  

 

March soybean meal was a higher overnight as it extends this month's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. However, stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 19th low crossing at $443.40 would mark a possible downside breakout of this month's trading while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off November's low, monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $478.60 is the next upside target is the next upside target. First resistance is the December 9th high crossing at $469.30. Second resistance is monthly resistance on the continuation chart crossing at $478.60. First support is the December 19th low crossing at $443.40. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the July-December rally crossing at $433.00.     



March soybean oil was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this month's rally. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.02 would open the door for additional short-term gains. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 63.57 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 67.02. Second resistance is broken support crossing at 67.52. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at 63.50. Second support is the December 16th low crossing at 61.47.    


Comments
By metmike - Dec. 28, 2022, 11:27 a.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!

Beans breaking out to the upside from the drought continuing in key global producer, Argentina.



NG collapsing from front month January expiring/converging with cash and no sign of frigid weather......though temps do cool in week 2.

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/83844/#83851

Highs for days 3-7:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MAX_filled.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MAX_filled.gif

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MAX_filled.gifhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MAX_filled.gif

                                    

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif

                                    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Lows days 3-7 below:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_min.shtml

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/95Awbg.gif

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY3_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY4_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY5_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY6_MIN_filled.gifhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MIN_filled.gif

                                

                                    


            

                

          

Extended weather.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

6 to 10 day outlooks

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 Temperature        Precipitation
Click below for archives of past outlooks (data & graphics), historical analogs to todays forecast, and other formats of the 6-10 day outlooks
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Temperature Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 
8 to 14 Day Outlooks

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 Temperature        Precipitation
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Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability
Precipitation Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability
 

                                    


By metmike - Dec. 28, 2022, 11:38 a.m.
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