KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Tuesday, July 31, 2018
7:45 AM ET. The Retail Economist/Goldman Sachs Weekly Chain Store Sales Index
Chain Store Sales, W/W% (previous -0.9%)
Chain Store Sales, M/M% (previous +3.0%)
8:30 AM ET. 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index
ECI, Q/Q% (expected +0.7%; previous +0.8%)
ECI, Y/Y% (previous +2.7%)
8:30 AM ET. June Personal Income & Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (expected +0.1%; previous +0.2%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +2.0%)
8:55 AM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y% (previous +3.5%)
Latest Wk, Y/Y% (previous +3.8%)
9:00 AM ET. May S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices
10-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.6%)
10-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.2%)
20-City Idx, M/M% (previous +0.8%)
20-City Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.6%)
National Idx, M/M% (previous +1%)
National Idx, Y/Y% (previous +6.4%)
9:45 AM ET. July ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMI
PMI-Adj (expected 62.3; previous 64.1)
10:00 AM ET. July Consumer Confidence Index
Cons Conf Idx (expected 125.5; previous 126.4)
Expectation Idx (previous 103.2)
Present Situation Idx (previous 161.1)
4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin
Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -3.2M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -4.9M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls) (previous -1.3M)
N/A U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey
Composite Idx (previous 362.4)
Composite Idx, W/W% (previous -0.2%)
Purchase Idx-SA (previous 245.5)
Purchase Idx-SA, W/W% (previous -1.0%)
Refinance Idx (previous 988.6)
Refinance Idx, W/W% (previous +0.9%)
8:15 AM ET. July ADP National Employment Report
Private Sector Jobs, Net Chg (expected +185000; previous +177000)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Department of the Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement
9:45 AM ET. July US Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (expected 55.5; previous 55.4)
10:00 AM ET. June Construction Spending - Construction Put in Place
New Construction (expected +0.3%; previous +0.4%)
Residential Construction
10:00 AM ET. June Metropolitan Area Employment & Unemployment
10:00 AM ET. July ISM Manufacturing Report on Business
Manufacturing PMI (expected 59.5; previous 60.2)
Prices Idx (previous 76.8)
Employment Idx (previous 56.0)
Inventories (previous 50.8)
New Orders Idx (previous 63.5)
Production Idx (previous 62.3)
10:00 AM ET. July Online Help Wanted Index
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 404.937M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -6.147M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 233.504M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -2.328M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 121.21M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -0.101M)
Refinery Usage (previous 93.8%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 21.7M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous +0.398M)
11:00 AM ET. July Global Manufacturing PMI
PMI, Mfg (previous 53)
2:00 PM ET. U.S. interest rate decision
Federal Funds Rate
Federal Funds Rate Change (Pts)
Fed Funds Rate-Range High (previous 2.00)
Fed Funds Rate-Range Low (previous 1.75)
FOMC Vote For Action (previous 8)
FOMC Vote Against Action (previous 0)
Discount Rate (previous 2.50)
Discount Rate Change (Pts) (previous +0.25)
Discount Rate-Range High
Discount Rate-Range Low
4:00 PM ET. July Domestic Auto Industry Sales
Auto Sales Annualized (expected 17.10M; previous 17.47M)
The STOCK INDEXES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=indexes"
The STOCK INDEXES:The September NASDAQ 100 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 7203.91 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 7359.70 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 7530.00. Second resistance isunknown. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 7203.91. Second support is June's low crossing at 6956.00.
The September S&P 500 was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off last Wednesday's high.Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 2796.96 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off June's low, January's high crossing at 2885.30 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the January-April-decline crossing at 2846.31. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 2885.30. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 2796.96. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2767.90.
INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"
INTEREST RATES: September T-bonds were higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 142-01 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 144-14. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 146-11. First support is June's low crossing at 142-01. Second support is May's low crossing at 139-11.
September T-notes were higher due to short covering overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 118.295 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.304 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.304. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 120.200. First support is June's low crossing at 118.295. Second support is May's low crossing at 117.300.
ENERGY MARKETS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=energy"
ENERGY MARKETS: SeptemberNymex crude oil was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 72.98 is the next upside target. If September resumes the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 62.99 is the next downside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 70.43. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 72.98. First support is July's low crossing at 66.29. Second support is June's low crossing at 62.99.
September heating oil was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 223.88 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 214.11 would signal an end to the rally off July's low. First resistance is July's high crossing at 223.88. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 229.73. First support is the 50% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 205.59. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 199.85.
September unleaded gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming oversold but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 215.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 207.22 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is July's high crossing at 215.31. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 217.41. First support is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 196.03. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-rally crossing at 189.92.
September Henry natural gas was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off July's low.Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.858 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.747 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.858. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 3.018. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 2.747. Second support is July's low crossing at 2.671.
CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"
CURRENCIES:The September Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the May-July trading range. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.09 would open the door for a larger-degree decline into early-August. If September extends the rally off last-Thursday's low, July's high crossing at 95.44 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 95.44. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 97.70. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 94.09. Second support is July's low crossing at 93.44.
The September Euro was slightly higher overnight while extending the May-July trading range. However, stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above July's high crossing at 118.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, June's low crossing at 115.82 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 118.52. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 119.40. First support is June's low crossing at 115.82. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 115.36.
The September British Pound was steady to slightly higher overnight.Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.3294 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off July's high, is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2862 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.3403. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.3533. First support is July's low crossing at 1.2988. Second support is is the 75% retracement level of the 2016-2018-rally crossing at 1.2862.
The September Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above July's high crossing at 1.0204 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off July's high, the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880 is the next downside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 1.0204. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 1.0302. First support is July's low crossing at 0.9984. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 20016-2018-rally on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 0.8880.
The September Canadian Dollar was slightly lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off June's low, the reaction high crossing at 77.36 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 76.24 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 77.36. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 77.94. First support is June's low crossing at 74.80. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2017-rally crossing at 74.54.
The September Japanese Yen was lower overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are poised to turned neutral to bearish with additional weakness signaling that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.9000 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9091 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 0.9091. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 0.9198. First support is July's low crossing at 0.8867. Second support is the December-2016 low crossing at 0.8805.
PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"
PRECIOUS METALS: October gold was slightly lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off April's high, the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1241.50 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1241.50. Second resistance is July's high crossing at 1272.30. First support is the 75% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1217.90. Second support is the 87% retracement of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 1190.90.
September silver was steady to slightly higher overnight. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.719 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September resumes the decline off June's high, the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 15.719. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 16.229. First support is July's low crossing at 15.185. Second support is the July-2017 low on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 15.145.
September copper was lower overnight. The mid-range trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off May's high, the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at 286.70 are needed to renew the rally off July's low. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at 286.70. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 299.21. First support is July's low crossing at 267.35. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the 2016-2018 rally crossing at 250.74.
GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains
December corn was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.66 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3.83. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 3.89 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 3.71 3/4. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.66 1/2.
December wheat was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 5.75 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/2 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 5.75 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 5.88. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.42. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.26 1/2.
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 15 1/4-cents at 5.74 3/4.
December Kansas City wheat closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, June's high crossing at 5.97 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.27 1/2 would confirms that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 5.80. Second resistance is June's high crossing at 5.97 3/4. First support is 50-day moving average crossing at 5.47. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.41 1/2.
December Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the reaction high crossing at 6.32 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.71 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.32 1/2. Second resistance is May's high crossing at 6.60 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 5.91. Second support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.86 3/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
November soybeans was higher overnight as it extends the rally off July's low. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends the rally off July's low, the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.67 would confirm that a top has been posted. First resistance is the 38% retracement level of the May-July-decline crossing at 9.15. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 9.42 3/4. First support is July's low crossing at 8.26 1/4. Second support is monthly support crossing at 8.25.
December soybean meal was higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 338.90 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December extends the decline off May's high, January's low crossing at 318.40 is the next downside target. First resistance is the reaction high crossing at 338.90. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 341.70. First support is July's low crossing at 321.50. Second support is January's low crossing at 318.40.
December soybean oil was steady to slightly higher overnight. The high-range overnight trade sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the rally off July's low, the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.06 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 28.65 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 30.06. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 31.29. First support is July's low crossing at 29.78. Second support is the August-2015 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 25.47.
LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock
October hogs closed up $0.35 at $51.23.
October hogs closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 46.24 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.14 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 54.14. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 59.34. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 50.47. Second support is weekly support crossing at 46.24.
October cattle closed down $0.67 at 109.80.
October cattle close lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 107.73 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October extends the rally off July's low, July's high crossing at 111.53 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 62% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 111.23. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the February-May-decline crossing at 113.33. First support is the reaction low crossing at 105.13. Second support is June's low crossing at 103.50.
August Feeder cattle closed down $0.80 at $151.50.
August Feeder cattle closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If August extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.47 is the next downside target. If August renews the rally off May's low, is February's high crossing at 155.98 is the next upside target. First resistance is July's high crossing at 154.93. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 155.98. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 148.47. Second support is July's low crossing at 147.82.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
September coffee closed higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.11 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September extends the decline off June's high, monthly support crossing at 10.56 is the next downside target.
September cocoa closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the December-April-rally crossing at 21.18 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 23.81 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October sugar closed lower on Monday while extending the decline off June's high. The low-range close set the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remains neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends the decline off June's high, weekly support crossing at 10.13 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 11.18 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
October cotton closed higher on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's rally, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 92.48 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 87.40 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
Thanks Tallpine!