KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

Tuesday, January 10, 2023 

6:00 AM ET. December NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

                       Small Business Idx (previous 91.9)

8:55 PM ET. Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index

                       Ret Sales Mo-to-Date, Y/Y%

                       Latest Wk, Y/Y%

10:00 AM ET. January IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

                       Economic Optimism Idx (previous 42.9)

                       6-Mo Economic Outlook (previous 37.7)

10:00 AM ET. November Monthly Wholesale Trade

                       Inventories, M/M% (previous +0.5%)

4:30 PM ET. API Weekly Statistical Bulletin

                       Crude Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbls)

  N/A              World Bank's Global Economic Prospects report

Wednesday, January 11, 2023 

7:00 AM ET. MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey

                       Composite Idx

                       Composite Idx, W/W%

                       Purchase Idx-SA

                       Purchase Idx-SA, W/W%

                       Refinance Idx

                       Refinance Idx, W/W%

10:00 AM ET. December Online Help Wanted Index

  N/A              EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

                       Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl)

                       Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)  Gasoline Stocks (Bbl)

                       Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

                       Distillate Stocks (Bbl)

                       Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl)

                       Refinery Usage

                       Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day)

                       Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day)

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes

The Dow closed slightly higher on Monday as it extended last-Friday's upside breakout of the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends last-Friday's rally, December's high crossing at 34,712.28 is the next upside target. Closes below the December 22^nd low 32,573.43 would renew the decline off December's high while opening the door for a possible test of November's low crossing at 31,727.05. First resistance is today's high crossing at 33,935.11. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the December 22^nd low crossing at 32,573.43. Second support is November's low crossing at 31,727.050.  

The March NASDAQ 100 closed higher on Monday following last-Friday's key reversal up as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,489.32 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March resumes the decline off December's high, October's low crossing at 10,595.25 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,489.32. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 11,839.97. First support is November's low crossing at 10,746.75. Second support is October's low crossing at 10,595.25. 

The March S&P 500 closed modestly higher on Monday following last-Friday's key reversal up as it extends the rally off December's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 3940.36 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted while opening the door for additional gains near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, November's low crossing at 3735.00 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3940.36. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the August-October crossing at 4045.36. First support is the November 9^th low crossing at 3782.75. Second support is November's low crossing at 3735.00.       

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March T-bonds closed up 17 pts. at 129-24. 

March T-bonds closed higher for the fifth-day in a row on Monday as it extends last-Friday's breakout above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-13 as it extends the rally off the December 30^th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 132-15 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 126-07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 123-06 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 130-01. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 132-15. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 124-31. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 123-06.

March T-notes closed up 95-pts. at 114.165.

March T-notes closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off the December 30^th low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends the aforementioned rally, December's high crossing at 115.115 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 112.308 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 114.235. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 115.115. First support is the December 30^th low crossing at 111.280. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 111.174. 

ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""

February crude oil closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last-week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February resumes last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $70.31 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.69 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $79.69. Second resistance is December's high crossing at $83.27. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $72.46. Second support is December's low crossing at $70.31. 

February heating oil closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $3.2045 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $2.7517 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $3.1003. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.1456. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.9200. Second support is December's low crossing at $2.7517.

February unleaded gas closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidates some of last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 2.2043 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If February extends last-week's decline, December's low crossing at 2.1157 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 3.0999. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $3.1450. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $2.9200. Second support is December's low crossing at 2.1157.  

February Henry natural gas closed slightly higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the March-2020 low crossing at 2.598 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.137 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 4.331. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.137. First support is the 87% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at 3.238. Second support is the  March-2020 low crossing at 2.598.

CURRENCIES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=currencies ""

The March Dollar closed sharply lower on Monday following last-Friday's key reversal down and marked a downside breakout of the December-January trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off September's high, the 75% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $101.331 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Friday's high crossing at $105.500 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Friday's high crossing at $105.500. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $106.889. First support is today's low crossing at $102.680. Second support is 75% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $101.331.  

The March Euro closed sharply higher on Monday following last-Friday's key reversal up. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off September's low, the March 31^st high crossing at $1.09680 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 1.05290 would renew the decline off December's high and open the door for a possible test of the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.04722 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 25% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at $1.07982. Second resistance is the March 31^st high crossing at $1.09680. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1.05290. Second support is the December 7^th low crossing at $1.04602. 

The March British Pound closed higher on Monday following last-Friday's key reversal and closed above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2154 signaling that a short-term low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 38% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1698 is the next downside target. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.2229. Second resistance is December's high crossing at 1.2479. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1861. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 1.1698.    

The March Swiss Franc closed sharply higher on Monday as it extended the rally off last-Friday's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.06658 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at 1.09845. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.06915. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.06658.

The March Canadian Dollar closed higher on Monday as it extended last-Friday key reversal up and closed higher on Tuesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the December 16^th low crossing at 73.04 would renew the decline off November's high while opening the door for a possible test of the November 3^rd low crossing at 72.58. First resistance is today's high crossing at 74.91. Second resistance is the November 25^thhigh crossing at 75.16. First support is the December 16^th low crossing at 73.04. Second support is the November 3^rd low crossing at 72.58.

The March Japanese Yen closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off last-Tuesday's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075509 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off October's low, August's high crossing at 0.078135 is the next upside target. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 0.077935. Second resistance is August's high crossing at 0.078135. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.075509. Second support is the December 15^th crossing at 0.073210.  

PRECIOUS METALS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=metals ""

February gold closed higher on Monday as it extends the rally off November's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February extends the rally off November's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1861.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $1823.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is today's high crossing at $1886.40. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-October decline crossing at $1915.10. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1823.20. Second support is the December 15^th low crossing at $1782.00.

March silver closed lower on Monday as it extended the trading range of the past three-weeks. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.357 is the next downside target. If March renews the rally off October's low, the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 25.938 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the March-September decline crossing at 24.779. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the March-August decline crossing at 25.938. First support is the December 16^th low crossing at 22.735. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 22.357.  

March copper closed higher on Monday as it marked an upside breakout of the December-January trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off September's low, the 62% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.2424 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.7085 would confirm a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.0343. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the March-July decline crossing at 4.2424. First support is last-Wednesday's low crossing at 3.7085. Second support is the November 28^th low crossing at 3.5470.

GRAINS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March Corn closed down $0.01 1/2-cents at $6.52 3/4. 

March corn closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, the December 19^th low crossing at $6.44 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.66 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing near $6.59 3/4. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $6.66 1/2. First support is the December 19^th low crossing at $6.44. Second support is December's low crossing at $6.35.  

March wheat closed down $0.02-cents at $7.41.  

March wheat closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends last-week's decline, December's low crossing at $7.23 1/2 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.95 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.95 1/2. Second resistance is the November 25^th high crossing at $8.20 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $7.36. Second support is December's low crossing at $7.23 1/2. 

March Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.03 1/2-cents at $8.28 1/2.

March Kansas City wheat closed lower on Monday as it extended the decline off the December 30^th high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, December's low crossing at $8.21 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.92 3/4 would renew the rally off December's low. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.92 3/4. Second resistance is 25% retracement level of the May-August-2021 decline crossing at $9.50. First support is today's low crossing at $8.27. Second support is the December 6^th low crossing at $8.21 3/4.

March Minneapolis wheat closed up $0.00 1/4-cents at $9.02.

March Minneapolis wheat closed fractionally higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off November's high, August's low crossing at $8.75 3/4 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.37 1/4 would open the door for additional short-term gains. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.37 1/4. Second resistance is the November 15^th high crossing at $9.91 1/4. First support is the December 19^th low crossing at $9.00 3/4. Second support is the December 6^th low crossing at $8.90.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "

March soybeans closed down $0.04-cents at $14.88 1/2.

March soybeans closed lower on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $14.95 1/2 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews  last-week's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.63 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 87% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at $15.37 1/2. Second resistance is June's high crossing at $15.72 1/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $14.63 1/2. Second support is December's low crossing at $14.31 3/4.  

March soybean meal closed down $7.30 at $470.30. 

March soybean meal closed lower on Monday as it consolidated some of the rally off October's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off October's low, the August 29^th high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $488.40 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $458.20 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $479.00. Second resistance is the August 29^th high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $488.40 is the next upside target. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $458.20. Second support is the December 19^th low crossing at $443.40. 

March soybean oil closed up 18-pts. At 63.35. 

March soybean oil closed higher on Monday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the December 16^th low crossing at 61.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.65 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 66.65. Second resistance is the November 29^th high crossing at 72.49. First support is the December 16^th low crossing at 61.47. Second support is December's low crossing at 58.50. 

LIVESTOCKhttp://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=livestock 

February hogs closed up $0.73 at $81.00. 

February hogs closed lower as it consolidated some of the decline off the December 27^th high on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If February extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at $78.47 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.50 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.50. Second resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $87.17. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at $80.27. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at $78.47. 

February cattle closed up $1.03 at $157.80. 

February cattle posted a key reversal up and closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If February renews the rally off November's low, the 87% retracement level of the monthly continuation chart crossing at $159.54 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $156.86 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is December's high crossing at $159.18. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the monthly continuation chart crossing at $159.54. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $156.86. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $155.72.  

March Feeder cattle closed up $0.70 at $186.35. 

March Feeder cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Tuesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $183.86 is needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $190.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $188.29. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at $190.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $183.86. Second support is the December 20^th low crossing at $182.87.      

FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food 

March coffee closed slightly lower on Monday as it extended the decline off December's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off December's high, December's low crossing at $15.46 is the next downside target. Closes above December's high crossing at $17.50 would open the door for additional gains near-term. First resistance is December's high crossing at $17.50. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $17.82. First support is December's low crossing at $15.46. Second support is November's low crossing at $15.41. 

March cocoa gapped up and closed sharply higher on Monday as it renewed the rally off September's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off September low, the March-2022 high on the weekly continuation chart crossing at 27.10 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 25.67 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term.             

March sugar closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-December rally crossing at 18.71 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 20.00 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.   

March cotton closed slightly higher on Monday. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the 50% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 93.31 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 82.59 would temper the near-term friendly outlook.