INO Morning Market Commentary
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Started by tallpine - Feb. 16, 2023, 7:40 a.m.

KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:

 



 

 

Thursday, February 16, 2023  

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January PPI

 

                       PPI, M/M% (expected +0.4%; previous -0.5%)

 



 

 

                       Ex-Food & Energy PPI, M/M% (expected +0.3%; previous +0.1%)

 



 

 

                       Personal Consumption (previous -0.4%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January New Residential Construction - Housing Starts and Building Permits

 

                       Total Starts (expected 1.35M; previous 1.382M)

 

                       Housing Starts, M/M% (expected -2.3%; previous -1.4%)

 

                       Building Permits (expected 1.35M; previous 1.330M)

 

                       Building Permits, M/M% (expected +1.5%; previous -1.6%)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. February Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

 

                       Business Activity (expected -7.4; previous -8.9)

 

                       Prices Paid (previous 24.5)

 

                       Employment (previous 10.9)

 

                       New Orders (previous -10.9)

 

                       Prices Received (previous 29.9)

 

                       Delivery Times (previous -5.6)

 

                       Inventories (previous 0.9)

 

                       Shipments (previous 11.1)

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims

 

                       Jobless Claims (expected 200K; previous 196K)

 

                       Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous +13K)

 

                       Continuing Claims (previous 1688000)

 

                       Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +38K)

 



 

 

10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

 

                       Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2366B)

 

                       Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -217B)

 

                        

 

2:00 PM ET. SEC Closed Meeting

 



 

 

4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings

 

4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings

 



 

 

Friday, February 17, 2023   

 



 

 

8:30 AM ET. January Import & Export Price Indexes

 

                       Import Prices (expected -0.1%; previous +0.4%)

 

                       Non-Petroleum Prices (previous +0.8%)

 

                       Petroleum Prices (previous -2.7%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. January Leading Indicators

 

                       Leading Index, M/M% (expected -0.4%; previous -1.0%)

 

                       Leading Index

 

                       Coincident Index, M/M% (previous +0.1%)

 

                       Lagging Index, M/M% (previous +0.3%)

 



 

 

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Advance Quarterly Services

 

10:00 AM ET. 4th Quarter Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales

 



 

 

Monday, February 20, 2023   

 



 

 

N/A               U.S. Presidents Day / Washington's Birthday. Financial markets closed

 



 

 

The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes  

 



 

The STOCK INDEXES: The March NASDAQ 100 was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates some of this week's rally. Overnight trading set the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading.Stochastics and the RSI have turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,348.15 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 12,949.75. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 12,348.15. Second support is the January 31st low crossing at 11,871.00.



The March S&P 500 was steady to slightly lower overnight and sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off December's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Friday's low crossing at 4060.75 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 4255.15. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 4060.75. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 3996.28. 



INTEREST RATES http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=interest"



INTEREST RATES: March T-bonds were steady to slightly higher overnight as they consolidate some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-04 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 129-04. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 132-22. First support is the overnight low crossing at 125-30. Second support is the the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 125-07.  



March T-notes were higher overnight as it consolidates some the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.302 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.310. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.302. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 111.290. Second support is 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. 



ENERGY MARKETS? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=energy ""



ENERGIES:Aprilcrude oil was slightly higher overnight. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the rally off last-Monday's low, January's high crossing at $82.89 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.76 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. Second resistance is the November 14th high crossing at $86.05. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $76.76. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $72.64.  



April heating oil is was lower overnight and sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.9177 would renew the rally off last-Monday's low while opening the door for a possible test of the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9428. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Wednesday's high crossing at $2.9177. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $2.9428. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732. 



April unleaded gas was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends this week's trading range. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above Monday's high crossing at $2.7303 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5655 would temper the near-term friendly outlook. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $2.7303. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.8578. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.5655. Second support is last-Monday's low crossing at $2.4671.    



April natural gas was steady to slightly higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the February 1st high crossing at 2.836 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If April extends the decline off November's high, the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238 is the next downside target. First resistance is the February 1st high crossing at 2.836. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.256. First support is the February 3rd low crossing at 2.416. Second support is the December-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 2.238.



CURRENCIEShttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=currencies"



CURRENCIES:The March Dollar was lower overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends the rally off February's low, January's high crossing at $105.500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.501 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the March-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is Wednesday's high crossing at $104.030. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $102.501. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.



The March Euro was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past eight-days. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March resumes the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08302 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.08302. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1.10590. First support is Monday's low crossing at $1.06740. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.    



The March British Pound was higher overnight as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March renews the decline off January's high, January's low crossing at 1.2083 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2224 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.2224. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is last-Tuesday's low crossing at 1.1968. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.2083.  



The March Swiss Franc was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes above Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750 would temper the near-term bearish outlook. If March resumes the decline off February's high, the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190 is the next downside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at 1.10815. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the 2021-2022 decline crossing at 1.12550. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 1.08025. Second support is the January 12th low crossing at 1.07190. Third support is January's low crossing at 1.06915.

 

The March Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.25 would signal that Tuesday's high likely posted a double top with the early-February high while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, November's high crossing at $75.71 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at $75.71. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $74.25. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at $73.99.  



The March Japanese Yen was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off January's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off January's high, the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.074563. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076705 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076705. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 0.078470. First support is the 38% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.074563. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136.

 

PRECIOUS METALS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=metals"



Aprilgold was steady to slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February crossing at $1811.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1907.90 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $1876.00. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $1907.90. First support is Thursday's low crossing at $1839.30. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60.



March silver was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends the decline off February's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly lower opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.896 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at $22.030. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at $22.896. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at $21.177. Second support the November 21st low crossing at $20.790.    



March copper was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past two-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral signaling that sideways trading is possible near-term. Closes below the the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0004 would open the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1324 are needed to signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4.1324. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0004. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.



GRAINS http://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=grains



March corn was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Tuesday's high, which tested the upper boundary of the January-February trading range crossing at $6.88 3/4. Overnight market action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day sessions begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.67 1/2 would open the door for additional weakness near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.92 1/2. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $7.01 3/4. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.67 1/2. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $6.61 1/4.   



March wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of the rally off January's low. Overnight trading sets the stage for a low opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.07 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $7.99. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.07 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $7.54 3/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $7.12 1/2. 



March Kansas City wheat was higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off Tuesday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.76 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.17 3/4. Second resistance isthe 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.45. First support isthe 20-day moving average crossing at $8.76. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.60 1/2. 



March Minneapolis wheat was higher overnight as it extends the trading range of the past four-weeks. Overnight trading sets the stage for a higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 3/4 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March extends the rally off January's low, the December 30th high crossing at $9.40 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.36 1/4. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at $9.40. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.15 3/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.85.   



SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains



March soybeans were lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a slightly low opening. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.03 3/4 would confirm that a top has been posted while opening the door for a test of the January 25th low crossing at $14.78 1/4. If March resumes the rally off October's low, the June 9th high crossing at $15.72 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $15.55 1/2. Second resistance is the June 9th -2022 high crossing at $15.72 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.03 3/4. Second support is the January 25th low crossing at $14.78 1/4.

 

March soybean meal was lower overnight as it extends the decline off Monday's high. Overnight trading sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $484.00 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for a larger-degree decline near-term. If March resumes the rally off January's low, the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90 is the next upside target.First resistance is Monday's high crossing at $508.20. Second resistance is the July 2022-high on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $513.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $484.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $470.80. 



March soybean oil was slightly higher overnight and sets the stage for a slightly higher opening when the day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.20 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the decline off December's high, the 87% retracement level of the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 62.20. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 64.75. First support is last-Monday's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the July-November-2022 rally crossing at 56.49. 


Comments
By metmike - Feb. 16, 2023, 12:12 p.m.
Like Reply

Thanks tallpine!