KEY EVENTS TO WATCH FOR:
Thursday, February 23, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
NAI (previous -0.49)
NAI, 3-mo Moving Avg (previous -0.33)
8:30 AM ET. 4th Quarter 2nd estimate GDP
Annual Rate, Q/Q% (previous +2.9%)
Chain-Weighted Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.5%)
Corporate Profits, Q/Q% (previous -5.0%)
PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)
Purchase Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.2%)
Real Final Sales, Q/Q% (previous +1.4%)
Core PCE Price Idx, Q/Q% (previous +3.9%)
Consumer Spending, Q/Q% (previous +2.1%)
8:30 AM ET. Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report - Initial Claims
Jobless Claims (previous 194K)
Jobless Claims, Net Chg (previous -1K)
Continuing Claims (previous 1696000)
Continuing Claims, Net Chg (previous +16K)
10:30 AM ET. EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report
Working Gas In Storage (Cbf) (previous 2266B)
Working Gas In Storage, Net Chg (Cbf) (previous -100B)
11:00 AM ET. EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Crude Oil Stocks (Bbl) (previous 471.394M)
Crude Oil Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +16.283M)
Gasoline Stocks (Bbl) (previous 241.922M)
Gasoline Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous +2.316M)
Distillate Stocks (Bbl) (previous 119.237M)
Distillate Stocks, Net Chg (Bbl) (previous -1.285M)
Refinery Usage (previous 86.5%)
Total Prod Supplied (Bbl/day) (previous 19.302M)
Total Prod Supplied, Net Chg (Bbl/day) (previous -1.234M)
11:00 AM ET. February Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Survey of Tenth District Manufacturing
Mfg Activity Idx (previous -4)
6-Mo Exp Prod Idx (previous 10)
Mfg Composite Idx (previous -1)
6-Mo Exp Composite Idx (previous 3)
4:30 PM ET. Federal Discount Window Borrowings
4:30 PM ET. Foreign Central Bank Holdings
Friday, February 24, 2023
8:30 AM ET. January Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income, M/M% (previous +0.2%)
Consumer Spending, M/M% (previous -0.2%)
PCE Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.1%)
PCE Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +5%)
PCE Core Price Idx, M/M% (previous +0.3%)
PCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y% (previous +4.4%)
8:30 AM ET. U.S. Weekly Export Sales
10:00 AM ET. January New Residential Sales
New Home Sales (previous 616K)
New Home Sales, M/M% (previous +2.3%)
New Home Sales Months Supply (previous 9.0)
10:00 AM ET. February University of Michigan Survey of Consumers - final
End-Mo Sentiment Idx (previous 64.9)
End-Mo Expectations Idx (previous 62.7)
12-Month Inflation Forecast (previous 3.9%)
5-Year Inflation Forecast (previous 2.9%)
End-Mo Current Idx (previous 68.4)
The STOCK INDEXES? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=indexes
The Dow closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this week's decline, the 38% retracement level of the October-December rally crossing at 32,396.11 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 33,862.51 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the January 13th high crossing at 34,342.32. Second resistance is the December 13th high crossing at 34,712.28. First support is the January 20th low crossing at 32,948.93. Second support is the December 22nd low crossing at 32,573.43.
The March NASDAQ 100 closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling sideways to lower prices are possible. If March extends the decline off February's high, the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,768.52 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,426.15 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the August-October decline crossing at 13,058.13 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 12,426.15. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 12,934.50. First support is the January 31st low crossing at 11,871.00. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 11,768.52.
The March S&P 500 closed slightly lower on Wednesday. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 3998.21 would open the door for a possible test of the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 4102.06 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 4102.06. Second resistance is February's high crossing at 4208.50. First support is today's low crossing at 3987.75. Second support is the January 19th low crossing at 3901.75.
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March T-bonds closed up 20/32's at 124-23.
March T-bonds closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 128-23 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 126-11. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128-08. First support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 123-12. Second support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 121-10.
March T-notes closed up 50-pts. at 111.070.
March T-notes closed higher on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off February's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.128 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 112.078. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 113.128. First support is the 75% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.309. Second support is the 87% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 110.035.
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April crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off last-Monday's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the aforementioned decline, February's low crossing at $72.64 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at $78.08 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at $80.78. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $82.89. First support is today's low crossing at $73.80. Second support is February's low crossing at $72.64.
April heating oil closed lower on Wednesday as it extended last-week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trading session begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April renews the decline off January's high, the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732 is the next downside target. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9242 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at $2.9242. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $3.0487. First support is February's low crossing at $2.6350. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the 2020-2022 rally crossing at $2.4732.
April unleaded gas closed sharply lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends this month's decline, February's low crossing at 2.4671 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 2.6601 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is February's high crossing at 2.7303. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $2.7186. First support is today's low crossing at 2.5362. Second support is February's low crossing at 2.4671.
April Henry natural gas closed higher due to short covering on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the decline off December's high. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signal that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April resumes the decline off November's high, the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795 is the next downside target. Closes above the February 15th high crossing at 2.693 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 1st high crossing at 2.836. Second resistance is the January 24th high crossing at 3.256. First support is today's low crossing at 2.113. Second support is the September-21st-2020 low on the monthly continuation chart crossing at 1.795.
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The March Dollar closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the rally off February's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's rally, January's high crossing at $105.500 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.979 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. If March renews the decline off September's high, the 87% retracement level of the January-September rally crossing at $99.229 is the next downside target. First resistance is last-Thursday's high crossing at $104.605. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $105.500. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 102.979. Second support is February's low crossing at $100.680.
The March Euro closed lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, January's low crossing at $1.05290 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at $1.07936 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.07936. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1.10590. First support is today's low crossing at $1.06110. Second support is January's low crossing at $1.05290.
The March British Pound closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2193 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. If March renews February's decline, January's low crossing at 1.1861 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 50-day moving average crossing at 1.2193. Second resistance is January's high crossing at 1.2462. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.1920. Second support is January's low crossing at 1.1861.
The March Swiss Franc closed lower on Wednesday while extending the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower trading is possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 1.06915 is the next downside target. Closes above last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is last-Tuesday's high crossing at 1.09750. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2018-2022 decline crossing at 1.10351. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at 1.07385. Second support is the January 6th low crossing at 1.06915.
The March Canadian Dollar closed lower on Wednesday as it extends Tuesday's breakout below the October-January uptrend line crossing at 73.94. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Wednesday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the decline off February's high, January's low crossing at 73.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.67 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the February 2ndhigh crossing at 75.42. Second resistance is November's high crossing at 75.71. First support is today's low crossing at 73.71. Second support is January's low crossing at 73.10.
The March Japanese Yen closed slightly lower on Wednesday as it extends the decline off January's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday’s day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends the aforementioned decline, the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076264 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 0.075334. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 0.076264. First support is the 50% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.073136. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the October-January rally crossing at 0.071710.
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April gold closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If April extends the decline off February's high, the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at 1811.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1892.30 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1892.30. Second resistance is February's high crossing at $1975.20. First support is last-Friday's low crossing at $1827.70. Second support is the 50% retracement level of the November-February rally crossing at $1811.60.
March silver closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If March extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.595 would signal that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 21.871. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 22.595. First support is the 50% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 21.177. Second support is the 62% retracement level of the September-February rally crossing at 20.326.
March copper posted an inside day with a lower close on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off last-Wednesday's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March extends this week's rally, January's high crossing at 4.3550 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0208 would open the door for additional weakness and a possible test of the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at 4.2370. Second resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 4.3550. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at 4.0208. Second support is the 38% retracement level of the September-January rally crossing at 3.9285.
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May Corn closed down $0.06 1/2-cents at $6.75.
May corn closed lower on Wednesday ending a three-day rally while extending the December-February trading range. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's night session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.93 1/4 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.68 1/2 would signal that a short-term top has been posted while opening the door for additional weakness near-term. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at $6.86. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level of the October-December decline crossing at $6.93 1/4. First support is last-Thursday's low crossing at $6.71 3/4. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $6.68 1/2.
May wheat closed down $0.12 3/4-cents at $7.50.
May wheat closed lower on Wednesday as it extended the decline off February's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the aforementioned decline, January's low crossing at $7.20 3/4 is the next downside target. If May resumes the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.14 1/2 is the next upside target. First resistance is February's high crossing at $8.07 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $8.14 1/2. First support is today's low crossing at $7.46 3/4. Second support is January's low crossing at $7.20 3/4.
May Kansas City Wheat closed down $0.28 1/4-cents at $8.76.
May Kansas City wheat closed sharply lower on Wednesday and below the 20-day moving average crossing at $8.74 1/2 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, the 50-day moving average crossing at $8.56 3/4 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.13 1/4 is the next upside target. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.13 1/4. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.40 1/4. First support 50-day moving average crossing at $8.56 3/4. Second support is the January 23rd low crossing at $8.06 3/4.
May Minneapolis wheat closed down $0.09 3/4-cents crossing at $9.09.
March Minneapolis wheat closed lower on Wednesday and below the 50-day moving average crossing at $9.10 1/4 signaling that a short-term top has been posted. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI have turned neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends today's decline, January's low crossing at $8.80 1/4 is the next downside target. If May renews the rally off January's low, the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38 is the next upside target. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $9.28 1/2. Second resistance is the 38% retracement level of the October-January decline crossing at $9.38. First support is today's low crossing at $9.08. Second support is January's low crossing at $8.80 1/4.
SOYBEAN COMPLEX? http://quotes.ino.com/ex?changes/?c=grains "
May soybeans closed down $0.09 1/4-cents at $15.34 3/4.
May soybeans closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of Tuesday's gains. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day trade begins. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends the rally off last-year's low, the contract high crossing at $15.67 1/2 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.07 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is today's high crossing at $15.49 3/4. Second resistance is the contract high crossing at $15.67 1/2. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $15.07. Second support is the February 8th low crossing at $15.00 1/4.
May soybean meal closed down $4.10 at $477.50.
May soybean meal closed lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May renews the rally off January's low, psychological resistance crossing at $500.00 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $473.10 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last-Monday's high crossing at $488.60. Second resistance is psychological resistance crossing at $500.00. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $473.10. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $460.60.
May soybean oil closed up 10-pts. At 63.05.
May soybean oil closed slightly higher on Wednesday as it extended the rally off February's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, the January 18th high crossing at 64.37 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 61.06 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the January 18th high crossing at 64.37. Second resistance is the December 30th high crossing at 66.17. First support is February's low crossing at 58.43. Second support is the 75% retracement of the July-November-2022 crossing at 58.36.
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April hogs closed down $2.53 at $86.58.
April hogs closed lower on Wednesday as it consolidated some of the rally off February's low. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 50-day moving average crossing at $88.80 would open the door for additional gains near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.60 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $89.88. Second resistance is January's high crossing at $95.40. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $85.60. Second support is February's low crossing at $81.28.
April cattle closed up $0.05 at $165.15.
April cattle posted an inside day with a higher close on Wednesday. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, diverging but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If April extends the rally off January's low, the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.61 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is Tuesday's high crossing at $165.78. Second resistance is the November-2014 on the monthly continuation chart crossing at $171.65. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $163.61. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $161.86.
March Feeder cattle closed up $1.05 at $187.93.
March Feeder cattle closed higher on Wednesday as it extends the trading range of the past three-weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening when Thursday's day session begins trading. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If March renews the rally off January's low, the 87% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at $190.38 is the next upside target. Closes below the 50-day moving average crossing at $185.27 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the February 7th high crossing at $188.58. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level of the August-October-2022 decline crossing at $190.38. First support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $185.27. Second support is February's low crossing at $182.70.
FOOD & FIBERhttp://quotes.ino.com/ex changes/?c=food
May coffee closed higher on Wednesday and is poised to test the 50% retracement level of the August-January decline crossing at $19.54. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.72 would signal that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 50% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $19.54. Second resistance is the 62% retracement level of the 2022-2023 decline crossing at $20.78. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at $17.72. Second support is the 50-day moving average crossing at $16.81.
May cocoa closed slightly lower on Wednesday ending a six-day rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May extends this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 29.98 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 26.65 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
May sugar closed slightly lower on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If May resumes the rally off January's low, monthly resistance crossing at 22.64 is the next upside target. Closes below last-Thursday's low crossing at 19.62 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.
May cotton closed slightly higher on Wednesday. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to slightly higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If May extends the decline off January's high, December's low crossing at 78.80 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 85.21 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.
Natural gas futures strengthened midweek as the ramp-up of full operations at a key export facility combined with the potential for March cold to support the market. With technical trading likely aiding the rally, the March Nymex gas futures contract settled Wednesday at $2.174/MMBtu, up 10.1 cents on the day. April futures climbed 12.1 cents…
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Not much to add. The just out 18z GEFS was -3 HDDs. This powerful reversal, especially on the back months was not from a major weather pattern change to colder in the high population density, big ng residential demand areas of the East......during the higher confidence next 2 weeks on most model solutions/ensembles.
Might we finally turn colder in the 2nd half of March? Sure, there is always uncertainty that far out some models have been suggesting much colder for week 3 since early February.........and been wrong. I think we WILL finally turn colder in week 3.
We'll have run out of Winter by then!
It's delusional to think that late March cold will have much impact on supplies in a market that has turned a deficit to a surplus by the greatest 6 month positive change in history.
The market had a selling exhaustion over night based on those extremely bearish fundamentals hammering the market for 6 straight months, dropping the price 80% during that period, from almost $10 to below $2 for the current front month!!!! Wow!